Met Mile

[kev]

I think they start with 115lbs

[TGJB]

Yes, we have the computer start at 115, but it could use any weight and go plus/minus. I only did a fast read but it looks like you have it right, and interestingly enough this ties into the Time Form question-- they do things very differently, using the scale of weights. It\'s a mess, and you have to pull out all kinds of things to back into a figure in our terms. They also have some weight and beaten length issues.

[Silver Charm]

Listened to the Introduction Seminar and got myself all straightened out regarding the weight loss calculation. Very prescient incident happened that very day when I was looking for some old rules and regulation publications I actually came across one of the old Introductory cassette\'s. My first dealings with TG. No bull.

I\'m thinking of selling it on E-Bay to get back the money I lost for \"Tossing Smarty on All Tickets\" on Derby Day.

Is Azeri an O-2-X ??

Interesting comments by Lukas in the Grening article about Day going to give Azeri a \"Sit-Still\" Ride. The Sit-Still ride of all-time was the one he gave Smarty\'s poppa Elusive Quality in the GP Hdcp. Talk about High Definition Memory of an event.

One final note I was sentenced to listening to the Intro Audio for a question about weight calculations. Was it for my question or something else ?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Intro Audio?

I knew of weight for years, but never really factored it into lengths until T-Graphs video cassette. I think I lost it though. I moved and tossed out a lot of old material I had. Reams of classic Racing Forms and Racing Times. What are you gonna do with them?...lol

The weight is simple. Any adjustments for lengths gained or lost are only on those changes for the race under consideration. At two turns 5 pounds is two lengths, two lengths is a T-point. In the Met five pounds is prolly closer to 1.5 lengths which is close to a T-point. Whatever it is precisely is Jerry\'s secret.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bowman's Band-Has been a good horse in the Jerkens barn. You could argue he is cycling back to his "Hal's Hope" negative 2.  His first negative 2 for Jerkins was the Meadowlands Cup. In that race he carried 5 more pounds.  He threw a very nice workout in May 29th. (fast but not taxing). He looks set to pop back to his best. The rail and how fast the others run appear to be the serious issues. (projected figure –2 or faster)

Eye of the Tiger – Ran substantially faster first out last for new trainer, finished within sight of the top two but appears to have had a clean trip. Will have to improve to factor.

Azeri-To my eye weight off and a nice tracking position behind Strong Hope and Pico Central are her strongest factors. On weight I factor her to run as fast as a –2.5 to –3 if she's at her best. She appears to be set for a stalking trip. (second flight, on the rail) The questions are her affinity for Belmont and is she as good on sandy type going. Note she did not win at Churchill last.  I'd have preferred to see a work at the track, though Lukas rarely operates that way. I rate her pace position "ideal".

Saarland-To my mind, is coming up to this race as he did to the '03 Met Mile. It was a good race at a Zed. But he'll have to be significantly faster Monday.

Gygistar-My hunch is he is going to run his race Monday and that's 2 T-points faster than Saarland. He is in better form this time than he has ever been. His races are tightly spaced and tightly grouped figure wise. His previous negative 1.2's knocked him out. The first one they knew he was done and they gave him time. The second one he cranked out off a layoff and it set him back. This time Gig has done it the right way. He was making up ground on Strong Hope in the Carter. Eye of the Tiger slipped up the rail on him. If he doesn't bounce he could run his best race. Loves Belmont(Projected Fig –2 )

Strong Hope-paired –3.3's say he's the horse to beat. He's shown the stamina to win longer and its 4 + points faster than last year. The loss of ground late in the Carter was a little disconcerting. He's been at his best on the lead and with having been forced to run wide last and his nemesis on the outside of him I think they will send him and make Pico take the longer route this time. My concern is that those sprint –3.3's are not gonna equate to Hope equaling that figure at 8 marks under duress, though I can't help but think of the Pletcher rocket that won this race a couple years ago. That horse died from Colic and I can't remember its name. Loves Belmont

Mobil-I can't see this horse as a serious factor

Pico Central-When this horse came back against Strong Hope to deny him I think it revealed a lot about him. He's not only fast T-Graph. He's fast on others as well. However that top last was certainly under some pressure. This time he picks up 2 lbs and takes the slightly longer route. Will that be enough to deny him? Will he bounce?

Funny Cide-Tagg has been threatening to shorten this horse up for some time. Well today he gets his wish. Working well and well rested. He should get a nice stalkin spot off one path wide off Azeri. Projected figure –2. Loves Belmont

Biases and Selections to follow

[Silver Charm]

Maybe he won it the following year because the first go around he got Swept Overboard.

At 10-1, cha-ching.

[TOMM]

exacta will be strong hope and pico, they are the only 2 horses that can sustain the high level pace throughout the race. also they are the fastest horses in the race
tomm

I make Strong Hope the favorite in here.  

He showed a lot of potential last year as a middle distance horse. He\'s come back great and IMO might have an even better race in him.

I think he can turn the tables on Pico Central who is also a major contender and the potential early leader in what could be a quick pace.

I thought the track for the Carter was a little speed favoring. I believe Pico Central is less likely to repeat that last performance or move forward like Strong Hope.

The one shortcoming for Strong Hope that I see is that he has never passed a horse in the stretch. Generally, he wins on the lead and struggles to hold off other horses. He may not have the lead today and there\'s going to be some good horses running at him late.    

I think this couldn\'t possibly be a worse spot for Azeri to debut against colts.

IMO, she\'s the 3rd fastest speed horse - though she can win from just off the pace too. That could be a problem because IMO she runs better on the lead. Plus, her last race was her weakest in years. Given all the rumors about her condition to begin with and Lukas\'s well known tendency to be willing to run horses into the ground, how can you like her?

All that said, IMO, she was a great champion and these are not the best colts in America. At a different time, I think she would match up very well. I don\'t care what the speed figures say, if she\'s 100% (and that\'s a very big if), she might surprise a lot of people here. I just don\'t think she will be 100%. She may not even be 80%.

I always thought Funny Cide would be better as a middle distance horse. He hasn\'t moved forward since his spring 3yo form, but I think it\'s still too soon to say he won\'t ever given how poorly he was handled late last year. I think we might get a peak performance out of him today (not necessarily speed figure wise though), but I\'m not sure he\'ll be sharp enough to stay within striking distance of today\'s hot pace in a one turn mile and then finish well enough to win.

After that, I think you are speculating on a trainer related new peak (Eye of the Tiger), or a speed duel that kills all the other contenders (Gygistar, Bowmans Band), etc...
   
I\'ll take Strong Hope at 3-1 or higher if I can get it.  Other\'s might like him at even lower odds, but I think Funny Cide and Azeri have more of a chance than conventional wise-guy wisdom suggests. I don\'t believe it\'s all sucker money being bet on them. I also am a little skeptical of Strong Hope\'s ability to either get the lead in a comfortable enough pace or rate just off it and still hold off the charge of pressers and closers.

All bets are off if it rains very hard or a bias seems to be developing due to moisture.



Post Edited (05-31-04 15:16)

[fasteddie]

Great race! Pico is a nice horse, and the trainer is flat-out amazing...might be the best trainer that most players hardly even know about.