Westgate - BC Classic Odds

[yesthatwouldbeme]

Saw this posted at FoxSports, perhaps worthy of some chatter

Westgate - Odds to Win -- BC Classic SA -- 11/5/16

4/1 California Chrome
5/1 Beholder
7/1 Frosted
8/1 Nyquist
10/1 Exaggerator
12/1 Songbird
15/1 Dortmund
20/1 Creator
20/1 Firing Line
20/1 Destin
25/1 Mubtaahij
30/1 Effinex
30/1 Hit a Bomb
30/1 Moyhamen
30/1 Hoppertunity
40/1 Keen Ice
40/1 Stratavari
40/1 Cherry Wine
50/1 Mor Spirit
50/1 Suddenbreakingnews
60/1 Imperative
60/1 Swipe
80/1 Brody\'s Cause

http://www.foxsports.com/other/story/california-chrome-early-odds-on-favorite-to-win-breeders-cup-classic-062716

[Agastache]

No Melatonin?

[plasticman]

I asked the head guys at Westgate a few months ago if they would \'reverse book\' things, put up odds on \'not to win\'. If they\'re comfortable that 20-1 is the proper odds of Firing Line for example, they should accept a 20 unit wager on Firing Line to NOT win, customer risks 20 to win 1. Just give us the reverse, not too much to ask, right?

Of course they won\'t reverse book, but anyone with a backbone would.

Backbone anyone?

[TempletonPeck]

It is a widely held misconception that bookies are in the business of setting the fair/correct (proper, in your words) line. They\'re in the business of setting the worst line that gets the most action.

[Boscar Obarra]

In theory they should accept any wager that helped them balance the book.  No?

[plasticman]

I agree, they\'re in the business of setting lines that get enough sucker money and scare away the sharps/big bettors who won\'t bet on bad lines.

BO is right though, there\'s also no reason not to accept bets that they feel are long run winning plays, letting customers risk 20, 30 or 40 bucks to win 1 buck has to be a long run winner as the book is risking very little to win a lot.

[Strike]

plasticman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I asked the head guys at Westgate a few months ago
> if they would \'reverse book\' things, put up odds
> on \'not to win\'. If they\'re comfortable that 20-1
> is the proper odds of Firing Line for example,
> they should accept a 20 unit wager on Firing Line
> to NOT win, customer risks 20 to win 1. Just give
> us the reverse, not too much to ask, right?
>
> Of course they won\'t reverse book, but anyone with
> a backbone would.
>
> Backbone anyone?

Based on comments from Firing Line\'s trainer (that I don\'t necessarily believe), he was sick when he ran last weekend. Very unimpressive performance. Instead of the Vegas line being 20-1 to win (ridiculous line) it should be 20-1 whether he will even run.

[jimbo66]

Sorry Plastic, but I have to be the jerk.

Not a brilliant post.  Of course the books aren\'t going to take two way action at 20-1.   Exactly how would they make money?   I bet $1000 to win 20k.  U bet 20k to win 1k the opposite way,   They facilitate one of us winning 20k and one losing 20k.  Without making any money.

It wouldn\'t take backbone.   It would take a moron.

Now, on a different point, anybody willing to take 20-1 on firing line off his performance last week deserves to lose their money.

And on a different point, Vegas is archaic and outdated when it comes to horses and sports.   Offshore had long replaced them as the place for sports betting and where real money is bet.   Have been to Vegas twice this year on business.   They are dealing 20 cent lines still in baseball.   I last bet a 20 cent line when I was about 15.   34 years ago.   The clerk, an older guy, said he had never even heard of s dime line for baseball.   Huh?   The only time u seem to be able to get a halfway decent horse futures bet is very early derby futures.   And even then it is amazing how little action they will take.  Wanted to bet $100 on a 200-1 shot in December.   They accepted $15 then would take another $15 at 125-1.   Gimme a break.   They will let a high roller play for 100k a hand at blackjack.     But $15 on a horse future.  

Anyway, vent is over.
How many days till saratoga.....

Jim

[TempletonPeck]

No, this is the common misconception.

A balanced book isn\'t what they (should) want.

What they (should) want is to maximize their EV. What you describe, balancing their book, minimizes their variance.

[Boscar Obarra]

I get your point. You\'re saying they are offering a bad price on everyone, so why should they let you join them in the party.

 Are they that good?  If they were, they would still be booking action, not using the tote.

[TempletonPeck]

IMO, most are definitely not that good, at least, not on stuff like this. And as a general rule, most bookies will simply try to balance their action.

With something like this, where the market is really small, LV books typically just set prices that are laughably bad and only take relatively small bets.

By doing that, they feel extremely confident bettors are the ones taking a bad price (Nyquist 8/1? Is he even money to start the race? If he does start the race, isn\'t he going to be 12/1, at least?), even though they don\'t know what the right price actually is.

Contrast this with something like March Madness, or the Superbowl, where the market is massive, and they are good at handicapping the event itself. With those events, if they manage to open a bad line, they can correct and balance out their action over time to get to a position they\'re ok with, because the markets are so big.

[plasticman]

you\'re right Jim, i should have stipulated that there\'s a \'reverse proper price\' and that price isn\'t the exact reverse of what they\'re offering, maybe FL would be 30-1 or thereabouts, risk 30 units to win 1, but there IS a price out there somewhere they could put up, even if its risk 100 to win 1, there is something fair as the \'opposite\' side they could put up, i\'m just sick and tired of seeing horses at \'20-1\' that i know should be much much higher and ask myself if i know that 20-1 is a ridiculous price, how can i profit off my opinion.

[jimbo66]

Plastic,

Gotcha.  

I think the REAL bottom line is that you can\'t bet futures in Vegas.  they only want EXTREMELY dumb money betting those numbers and therefore offer completely ridiculous prices.

Not sure how sophisticated an offshore player you are or aren\'t, but there are places that offer two sided action.  I don\'t want to advertise on TGJB\'s board here, but Pinnacle Sports is about the best.  They offer two sided futures on sports and the major horse races and the numbers are reasonable spreads - the best offshore I have seen.  E.G., a horse that was +420 to win the derby might be offered at -480 or -500 against, which isn\'t bad at all.  

Jim

[plasticman]

im living in the usa, so i don\'t think im allowed to bet with pinnacle, but i don\'t know the laws and rules for sure on that one.

[Bet Twice]

Interesting article on Pinnacle.  I think there was a thread on this when the article first came out, with some of the players mentioned being known to JB and others.


Ny times