trainer stats plus

Started by brokerstip, May 21, 2004, 06:38:19 AM

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brokerstip

Have two questions. One regarding the new trainer figure based stats and the other related to figuremaking that is race specific.

1) When using the line related to races within a few points of the top or figures after a new top, what period of time is utilized?
Is it the lifetime top of the horse or a recent top within a period of time?

For example...5/19/04 Lones Star Race 8 #7 Goodies Galore.
Horse ran a top of 9 as a 2yo in Jun 03. Recent 3yo race is 12 1/2 in Apr 04. Relevant stat is \"within 1 point of top\".
Should that be 3 to 4 pts?

2) On rare occasion, I find horses all  coming out the same race with figures that don\'t seem to fit.

Example: Lone Star 5/20/04 Race 6 turf.
4 horses all come off the same previous race on a yielding turf course at Lone Star.
#2 Whatalove-normal range 12-15
race in question  #23 1/4.
#5 Bankrupe----normal range 13
race in question 24 1/2
#6 Classic Visit-normal range 15/17
race in question 23
#7 Fiery Nina----normal range 11 1/2-15
race in question 22.

It seems odd to me that all four of these horses bounced 8-12 pts off their normal range on the same day in the same race.
 Is this a \'figure problem\' or a function of the yielding turf course?
Note: thhe winner (#10) was running 12\'s and he nosed the 5 with the 1&7 also quite close (the #1 also ran 12ish).
So the race seems to fit that 11-15 range typical of these horses in the past.

nicely nicely

There was an input error in that Lone Star race. All horses out of that race of 5/2 should have been 10 points faster. It has since been corrected in our system.

In general, our procedures in the office have 3 separate people checking data. Unfortunately, out of the 30 or so tracks tracks and the hundreds of races per week, one occasionally slips through. We apologize.

As to the trainer stats, Alan will answer that later today.

TGAB

The figure-based trainer profiles are studies based on the \"effective top\" of each horse at the time of the race being measured. Effective top is defined as the horse\'s best figure from his last six starts, or last 12 months if the horse ran less  than 6 times during that period.

That means for Goodies Galore the relevant category is the one shown--after race within 1 pt of top. The 12-1/2 last out paired the 12-1/2 at Lad last September, the 6th race back.

The explanation for the figure-based trainer stats is a download available off the Introduction and Order Online page. It\'s also included with the Race of The week.

TGAB

brokerstip