Belmont Race #7 - Reflections

[Tavasco]

Tom\'s Ready - A top of 5² earned not sprinting but as a late running router with classic hopes is the co-slowest horse in the race and the other (Hollendorfer) scratches.

Proving that arguably to few use performance figures on big days (or he wasn\'t bet by the crowd) the colt goes to post @ $7.60/1.

Pattern - dubious read a jump up certainly one possibility. But how much, given he looks kind of a route plodder.

Dallas the master of surprises and traditionally distance oriented but previously fame came from going longer.

Figure Making - Fish Trap Road (previous top of 3) could earn another. Clocks can be deceiving probably best to use some artistry.

Outside the Box - Many will say the race fell apart due to the pace so most runners should be graded as regressing. Alternatively, a dozen in form stakes horse ran pretty much according to form and the top three join the negative number club.

What to make of this event? Tom, no doubt got the money, I\'m looking forward to Star Hill @ SAR assuming Mr. Arnold keeps him together.

[Edit] One of Rosario\'s many pluses to go along with a couple of risks which didn\'t pan out.

Just one of many fascinating heats. A day even NYRA couldn\'t spoil despite their incompetence.

[jerry]

Good question on top two finishers. Where the money came from on the winner is a mystery but somebody knew something we didn\'t and knew it a lot. It wasn\'t from this side of town.

[sekrah]

Throwing some red board shit against the wall:

1. Some of the workout tout sheet guys were all over Tom\'s Ready and hey, blinkers off!
2. There\'s a possibility that La Derby was faster than what Jerry had it.


Also, here\'s something I use in my handicapping that I don\'t see a lot talked about here and I would like Jerry\'s thoughts:

Sharp Azteca.  

Ran a 1.5 six weeks ago, basically a pair-up from what he has been running.  But this 1.5 figure is based on the final time of the Pat Day Mile.  What if we based it on the 7 furlong split of the Pat Day Mile?  1:20.95.  Catalina Red got a -2.25 in the 7f CD Stakes ran earlier on the card.  1:20.79.  Cat Red was two paths wider, but was she 3.75 points faster than Sharp Azteca that day just because Sharp Azteca had to limp home another furlong?  They both did 6f in nearly identical times. 1:08.  

Sharp Azteca clearly ran a majority segment of that race that was much faster that day than his figure given. A big new top that day would make him a candidate to retreat yesterday. A pair up (that he was given) makes him look very unbeatable yesterday.  In my mind, he clearly ran a big new punishing top on Derby day.  The TG data does not properly capture Sharp Azteca\'s performance.

This is a textbook case of why extreme pace situations have to be factored in when looking at figures.

[sekrah]

There\'s also an argument to be made that Fish Trappe Road\'s October 24th race at Belmont was much faster than the TG 6.75 he got when he limped home the final 2 furlongs after running his fastest 6f time ever in the first 75% of that race.  If his May 7th race is actually a pair instead of a 3 pt top, he looks like a very strong play yesterday.

[miff]

Sek,

FWIW,all the speed/perf figs I saw have it the way TG has it, Cat Red faster by a few lengths than Sharp Azteca.


Mike

[sekrah]

Of course they do.  They are all looking at Sharp Azteca\'s 1 mile time and comparing that time to their 1 mile pars and adjusting their variants.  If they looked at both horses 7fs, they\'d be nearly identical, with TG having Cat Red a little faster for the extra ground loss.

Sharp Azteca ran up top in a blistering pace where any horse near the front completely collapsed. He ran a 6f time a few hundredths faster than Cat Red. At the halfway point, the 2nd-3rd-4th place finishers were 11th-10th-8th.

The 1:20.4 he ran in that race over 7 furlongs is a full 2+ seconds faster than any other 7f he had ever ran in his life. The same 7f that Cat Red got a 3.75 faster figure for two races earlier.

If the Pat Day Mile was actually the Pat Day Mile-And-An-Eighth, Sharp Azteca would have been given an even slower figure as he limped to the line.  That still doesn\'t change the fact that he ran a ridiculously fast 1:20.4 over 7 furlongs in that race, a huge top.

[miff]

\"Of course they do. They are all looking at Sharp Azteca\'s 1 mile time and comparing that time to their 1 mile pars and adjusting their variants. If they looked at both horses 7fs, they\'d be nearly identical, with TG having Cat Red a little faster for the extra ground loss\"

Sek,

There is some useful data out there which show quit lines/deceleration in races. Applied to the two horses in question, both would have run very close to the same figure at 7f.

Mike

[jerry]

You\'re gonna get yelled at.