Bloodhorse Belmont Preview.

[bobphilo]

Would be interesting to know what his reason was. I suspect that he knows that SBN\'s stretch gains are due to the speed collapsing in front if him and with the likely pace of the Belmont being slow this year, he would be at a disadvantage.

[TGJB]

Why is this conversation still going on?

[bobphilo]

Because we are debating the the validity of \"race specific\" handicapping over more more significant factors like figures trip, pace etc with more statistical validity.
Everybody made their case and I was ready to put it to bed until the absurd claim that I Implied that we have to wait until 2050 to get a significant sample, to which I had to reply.
Frankly, I\'d like to see this whole thread closed as it\'s now going nowhere.

[TGJB]

I thought I already did that until I saw this.

[ajkreider]

All deep closers gain some position because of horses slowing down in front of them, but SBN is running at the end of all his races.  In a derby supposedly loaded with closers, SBN was much the quickest coming home.  

The winner got the last quarter in :25.7, and SBN made up more than 11 lengths in that span.  That\'s something in the high :23 range.  But he likely needs to be closer to the pace to make that pay off in the Belmont.

Edit:  whoops.  Just saw JB\'s post. Sorry

[bobphilo]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All deep closers gain some position because of
> horses slowing down in front of them, but SBN is
> running at the end of all his races.  In a derby
> supposedly loaded with closers, SBN was much the
> quickest coming home.  
>
> The winner got the last quarter in :25.7, and SBN
> made up more than 11 lengths in that span.  That\'s
> something in the high :23 range.  But he likely
> needs to be closer to the pace to make that pay
> off in the Belmont.
>
> Edit:  whoops.  Just saw JB\'s post. Sorry

No need to apologize in my view. Good points relevant to Belmont preview.
I agree that he is the strongest closer in the field but my concern is that this was the case in all his previous races and he still didn\'t get up in time even with the fast paces. As with most closers, you can\'t expect him to repeat those fast late fractions if he races closer to the pace. Not saying he can\'t win the Belmont but will have to see how his figs compare to others and how the pace scenario shapes up. Of course a major factor will also be his rider\'s familiarity with Big Sandy\'s unique configuration.

[Rich Curtis]

\"I agree that he is the strongest closer in the field but my concern is that this was the case in all his previous races and he still didn\'t get up in time even with the fast paces.\"

That\'s not true, Bobphilo. How many times did he finish first?

[bobphilo]

Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"I agree that he is the strongest closer in the
> field but my concern is that this was the case in
> all his previous races and he still didn\'t get up
> in time even with the fast paces.\"
>
> That\'s not true, Bobphilo. How many times did he
> finish first?

I stand corrected. He did win the Southwestern. However, he still wasn\'t able to get up in time in his last few, including the Derby, despite quick early paces.

[Michael D.]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All deep closers gain some position because of
> horses slowing down in front of them, but SBN is
> running at the end of all his races.  In a derby
> supposedly loaded with closers, SBN was much the
> quickest coming home.  
>
> The winner got the last quarter in :25.7, and SBN
> made up more than 11 lengths in that span.  That\'s
> something in the high :23 range.  But he likely
> needs to be closer to the pace to make that pay
> off in the Belmont.
>
> Edit:  whoops.  Just saw JB\'s post. Sorry


aj,

trakus has SBN running a 25.14 final 1/4.

Nyq 26.42 and Exag 25.09

[ajkreider]

Here, Trakus has it at :24.67 for SBN.  Different numbers for the others as well.

Derby Trakus - Final Quarter

Either way, someone\'s wrong.  Equibase has Nyquist 2nd by a head at the mile call, and the race finishing in 25.70.

[Michael D.]

they have SBN finishing in 6.40 and 6.52, a few lengths slower than Exag. the full 1/4 times look better.

either way, SBN is now 5 or 6-1 with Mike Smith up, in a race with little pace.

[miff]

Computer geeks \"tracking\" Trakus for over one year,find a fair number of discreapancies with overall times and splits.

Something as simple as accurately timing races seems a Herculean task. A former employee of Equibase opined that 30% of the published times were inaccurate.

JB, in the hand timing exercise you do(used to do) did you often find discreapancies?

[TGJB]

Don\'t look at Trakus much (early on I posted here about some stuff they had that was questionable), but track times are off fairly often. And reported runups are wrong pretty regularly.