Calculating Figs in Unusual Circumstances

[Blueskies]

Gurus of the Fig-
 I have a question about how figs are calculated in
> certain races- On Saturday, Thatcher Street won the Opening Verse at
> Churchill going a mile on the turf. On paper, this race may have drawn tougher than the only other turf race (a graded stakes) that stayed on the turf that day. There were no
> other similar races run on the turf that day and with the rain, the
> conditions were unusual at Churchill. How do you guys put that
> performance in perspective? Seems tough!

Racewise, Thatcher Street also ran on what I think was a pretty dead inside turf path
> and was still able to win- so saved ground but perhaps
> worked harder. Again a tough call on the
> numerology.

Any other methods that you guys employ to find a likely winner in race situations like this- pure closing numbers, pilot edge?
>
> Just trying to learn a little bit here.

Thanks for any input!

[TGJB]

After I do the figs we\'ll post the day. It\'s easier to discuss it with actual examples.

[Blueskies]

Thanks!!

[TGJB]

Okay.

First of all, there was only one other grass race on the card, and that one had an insanely slow pace (1:19 6f in a stake), so it was obviously an \"s. pace\" race that had to be done separately.

So this race was a stand alone. When this happens at Saratoga with maiden 2yos that haven\'t run on grass it can be a major pain in the butt, and I have to leave a box. But these were very solid, consistent older grass horses, which run figures in a tight range, and it was pretty easy. Look at the race, and see what happens if you add or subtract (you would have to do it with all horses).

As for the rail, it was a gray area, mostly because the sample size is so small. One of the other horses in the other race ran his top on the inside and others ran okay, so I didn\'t mark it, but it might have hurt a little. Not as clear as at Pimlico Saturday.