What do we know?

[FrankD.]

I\'ve spent an inordinate amount of time on this years derby for still being 2 weeks out. Usually by this time most of us have somewhat of a plan. We wait on final works, breeze\'s over the track and the ever important draw.

We have 10 horses who have run TG 2 or less at some point and 4 horses coming in with extremely juicy patterns. (Exaggerator,Creator, Whitmore & Outwork) In looking at the race vertically you can make a solid case for 12-14 horses to get into the tri and super!

I\'ll be having a long chat with my pace guru Miff about the pace scenario for sure but most would agree that Danzig Candy should be on the engine with Outwork and Nyquist in close pursuit. Post position, a blinker adjustment, or a jocks decision to go could alter or add to the pace equation.

At this point the only thing I know are there are a few I will toss from the top spot and I few I\'ll not use at all in verticals from the fast bunch. Brody, Sam and Shagaf interest me on the bottom of my vertical tickets.

I cannot use Nyquist on top in any way shape or form, if he beats me he beats me.
He will be a 7/2 ish favorite,several horses have run faster, he has not broken through his 2 year old top and his pattern is consistent but non spectacular.
He is undefeated, should be forwardly placed avoiding trouble, I don\'t have a lot of confidence in his jock getting into a pace chess game. Yeah I know what\'s next, Mario has won 2 triple crown races, my response to that is so has Ronny Franklin.My use of Nyquist will be in 3rd and 4th spots only. A decision based 98% on price and TG numbers.

Creator and Whitmore come in with 2 very explosive patterns screaming out forward move good enough to win this year.My knock on both is they earned their past 2 numbers carrying 115 & 118 a far cry from 126. Many of the fast ones have carried 122-124 in their preps. Does the Arkansas duets pattern look as good adding more weight? Suddenbreakingnews could be hindered in traffic and 6 wide turning for home can\'t get to the top here IMHO. None of these are winners on my tickets but again all vertical possibilities for sure.

All of the Louisiana bunch is simply too slow and I hope Mo Tom goes and sucks up a lot of money. Whomever said he could be a 5th betting choice is a bit delusional.

Danzig Candy and both Pletchers are complete tosses for me on all tickets. Mike Smith after Palace Malice and a few other big races the last few years has some suicidal tendencies on the front end. Destin is trying something impossible without foundation going 10 furlongs off 8 weeks rest. Outwork without a 2 yr old foundation and after a gut wrenching Wood will be up against it.

I\'ve now eliminated 7 of the 10 fast ones from the top spot leaving Exaggerator, Mohaymen and Moi Spirit. Of the 3 I like Moi Spirit the least on top but his workman like grinding of 12.2\'s equates to a 2:02 ish derby and he is an absolute must use in verticals probably a key in the 10-15/1 range. Mohaymen\'s fast work gave me some optimism, ok toss the Florida Derby, fast at 2, as highly thought of as Nyquist before that race.I can see Mohaymen possibly winning, definitely in the vertical mix and at least 10/1. A value play? I thought so until I heard Kiaran on Mark Cusano\'s show on Capital OTB yesterday. He made every excuse in the book not only for Mo but for Frosted in Dubai as well! They both were wide, both hated the track, both were doing great before their races, expected both to win and per KM draw a line through both of their races and he says he has lost no confidence in Mo at all!!!!! GEESH! I don\'t like that he is only working twice in 5 weeks and admitted the 46.4 was not by design, wanted a heavy 47 or right at 48 and his next work would simply be a 4 furlong breeze in 48 ish ?

It\'s no great secret to many veterans of the board that I\'m a Kent Desormeaux fan through his train wreck of a personal and professional life I still have immense respect for his talent that IMHO makes him a top 10 all time jock. I also have an affinity for the Cajun horse folks. They all have a passion for the game, the horse, to compete and like to wager a dollar or 2. I spent quite a bit of time in New Orleans in 84-85 and made a very good friend who was half Italian and half Cajun, what a combo! Anyway Norman took me to Evangeline & Jefferson Downs and served as an interpreter I\'m rooting as a fan for the brothers D. It doesn\'t hurt that Exaggerator\'s sheet looks muy bueno to me and if it rains? Forget About It! He is my most likely winner at this point and a definite key in the top 2 spots.

BUT:
With 2 weeks ago anything and everything is certainly subject to change.

Good luck to all trying to solve this years Sunday NY Times puzzle,

Frank D.

[Tavasco]

Frank, Kudos on an interesting read.

Now, as you intimate, a short pause as we wait on developments and new facts.

But first along the lines of what can we count on? Dallas Stewart has once again done a masterful job of hiding his Derby hopeful Tom\'s Ready from consideration. i.e., I can\'t even imagine him getting into the super.

Baffert - most vertical tickets will include his entry whatever its name.

The Gutierrez wide ride on Donworth @ CT is precisely what I picture for Nyquiist. A tri or super without the favorite is a nice prospect.

Brother D? They just don\'t seem to have the right Karma (or publicist) as good a story as it would make. Leaning slightly toward Asmussen vindicated. Still dreaming about turning Japanese.

[kevb]

Tavasco. Frank Conversation has been training at Keeneland. With a little luck, he will run before Derby day, and we will some more info to decide whether to elevate or disregard the winner of the Dubai Derby.

[TGJB]

Or, you could look at the figures.

[kevb]

Yes. If he is entered in a race, I will get to look at the figures FC ran at GGF, but it would also be nice to see a race over the Keeneland or CD surface. A fast race by FC here after the dud in Dubai would make Lani more interesting for me.

[Tavasco]

10-4 JB! Good luck with your new AQ 8th partnership. He\'s on my watch list.

Yet knowing how fast you\'ve made the UAE Derby satisfies me. Improvement needed but no more than a couple of previous surprise winners. Hard to hate a horse who we know so little about yet. Especially vs so many proven race losers.

Lani sure appears to have a big rear end on him. He looks to have dragster like proportions from the video of the workout. Can\'t say it was encouraging.

I see Rob has convinced TAP to teach Outwork to run behind horses. Expecting New York values to be key this year.

Kev thanks for the tip about Frank C. I hope we will see him back on the lawn.

Need Sleep.

[JEB]

So many great points made by Frank D.
I am amazed how many horses are faster than the most likely favorite. I just have a couple things to add which are a little on the contrarian side.

Exagerrator-I know that everyone is looking for wet to move him up. If it is a wet track, his odds will go way down and I do believe that he may take over favoritism. I want a fast track. He will be pretty juicy odds for one of the fastest horses.

Nyquist-I too am not too keen on him. There are eight horses faster than him. However, with his running style, he should avoid trouble and get a crack at the pacesetter. I am not willing to throw him out of the exotics. His running style plus trainer make him a real threat to me. He was fast at two and has pretty much stayed the same. Looks a little like Super Saver to me.

Mohaymen and Danznig Candy. Both bounced last out. I know people are saying that Monarchos came back with a big derby run after a bounce. I looked back over the last six derbies and only Liason and Creative Cause either ran a top or paired up. I think the trend of less starts makes it imperative for a horse to run well in their preps. I counted 16 who had an off or an x. I guess at 10-1 for Mohaymen or 20-1 for Danzing Candy may make it palatable to play but not less.

Lastly, and my biggest contrarian position. Consider the Pletcher horses. I know that sounds crazy but a couple of things:
1) 2010-2016, Todd Pletcher has had three horses hit the board in the derby. He is tied with Baffert for the most. Stewart and Romans had two each. Pletcher has a bad rap for the derby but he is doing as well as the top derby trainer in the game the last few years.
2) While I have torn up plenty of tickets when horses like Carpe Diem and Gemologist ran terrible, most of his starters are easy tosses. Either too fast in the their last prep or they don\'t belong. Maybe Pletcher does not do a good job of setting owners straight and telling them that there horse has no shot. Let\'s look at Destin. He has the high fig for the field. I like that Pletcher is trying something new with this horse. He has failed with so many horses that have gone negative that he might as well try something different.
3) All of the so-called experts hate the Wood. Outwork has a good pair of figures with the last one being concealed since all anyone is saying that Outwork was all-out to hold off a maiden. He has a good pattern plus the running style to avoid issues. His dam sire is Empire Maker so I like his chance to get 10 Furlongs.

I know that we have a little ways to go but I like exaggerator and outwork.
 
Also, out of the closers, I Like Suddenbreakingnews. He is the fastest of the bunch plus a nice pattern(although I am not crazy about his slow figs at two)

thanks
john b

[boardedup]

As to liking a different approach from TAP.  Not sure it\'ll bear fruit, but it can\'t hurt, and he has been pretty solid off the layoff in big stakes races lately, not many people have been talking about that.

Personally I love how Outwork dug in during the stretch run in the Tampa derby, I think he thought he repelled Destin\'s challenge when he re took the lead and then relaxed a bit late and Destin never quit trying that day.

In the Wood he again showed his hatred of being passed.  Assuming all things equal post wise, I think it\'ll be very entertaining watching Outwork and Nyquist battle each other at the top of the stretch, both refusing to be let the other go by.

The question remains though, how much will DC have left in the tank at that point of the race?

[miff]

If the run off in the slop was an aberration for Danzig Candy, no one is getting over/past him so easy.With a clean break think DC controls front end with an honest pace.

[jbelfior]

That\'s the issue with DC. You can\'t assume he will break clean and it\'s doubtful he will relax and stalk if he doesn\'t. Not a good thing in a 20 horse field at a 1 1/4.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Not expressing an opinion about this particular horse (impending seminar), but Julian by way of Ring (and someone else here, I think) had it right. At 20-1 you don\'t have to be sure of anything.

[boardedup]

And at 30-1 pretty much just make sure they walk him over