Florida derby impressions

[ringato3]

9 pm EST, a few hours after what was supposed to be a monumental matchup in the Florida derby and no posts on the topic yet.

Mohaymen - this is the easier of the two horses to read coming out of the race.   An awful performance, no way around that.   If he had gotten beat a length or two, then losing to Nyquist after a bad post position draw wouldn\'t be so bad.   Sure, he was wide into the first turn, but he packed it in immediately in the stretch.   Horses just don\'t win the derby off no show races in their last prep.    Don\'t care how this horse trains or how many excuses Kiaran comes up with for today - he is a Derby toss if he runs.

Nyquist - a tougher read for me.   Not in the context of contender or not, but in the context of the fact he will be a 5/2 shot in a 20 horse field off today\'s win. Those that want to criticize will point to a relatively soft trip today and an inability to run straight in the stretch, along with the 1 1/4 miles.   Really not sure.  Have banged my head against the wall betting  against favorites more than my fair share of times and have yet to bet on this horse, but he looked good today.   Relaxed well, with jockey just sitting on him, then took off in The stretch and ran away from them.  Crushed the field.  Now, the only other real horse in the race we beyond horrible, so some of the monstrous win was an optical illusion.   But this horse keeps winning.  

Other thoughts?

Rob

[atakante]

I agree with you Rob. I was not a big believer in Mohaymen to begin with and today seals the deal for me.  Very impressed with Nyquist that deserves to be the favorite. This may also be the harbinger of Western horses doing better in KD. Danzing, Cupid, Mor Spirit etc. But overall it looks wide open..maybe another 50-1 year even.  Too bad Borel is retired.

[Tavasco]

My thought before the race was that Mohayman\'s connections didn\'t need to win this race. If it came to them fine but stay out of trouble realizing that Kentucky Derby is the goal.

He looked like a different horse today. The trip was very detrimental to results. Not sure they really tried too hard at any point in the race. Further, K-Mac not my choice for clutch performance in big races. Frostad\'s Dubai effort also unexpectedly poor.

Candidate for this years Florida Flop.

[miff]

Rob,

Unless you give MO a mulligan for the wet track, a fork is what he deserves.No sooner was the race over and a Kool Aid drinker blamed ground loss on his EMPTY performance....paleeeez! MO showed gears on more than one occasion, unlike today when he meekly surrender when he hooked Nyquist.Mentioned to pal today that Kiaran horses bombed in Dubai while looking great going in. Barn in funk?

Nyquist did not have an easy trip imo with steady flank pressure, both sides, albeit from slugs. That was not bearing out imo either. Watching close, think jock shifted and Nyquist shyed and snaked late while switching to left lead last few jumps, finished strong and galloped out strong.Weak diistance pedigree less a factor now.

Nyquist tough horse,not brilliant.Had his last 7f race faster than given and he confirmed that today.

Not sure Nyquist is 5-2 in derby with several key preps to come and 5-6 possible jump up types training lights out going into their final preps.

Kinda agree with MJ that derby quite open looking.

Mike

[jp702006]

Mike,
You aren\'t the only one who thought his last was faster. That\'s two weeks in a row that a California shipper came east and won for fun. Btw, I think take it to the edge is still running:) KMac has failed to show up on the big stage the last two weeks, I don\'t expect him to do any better the first Saturday in May. Nyquist may or may not win in the Derby, but I definitely would not discount this horse anymore.

Patrick

[TGJB]

I would be surprised if this one came up better than I gave Nyquists last one, let alone confirming something faster. Second and third finishers came in around 6 1/2-- 7, the two other horses with good figures didn\'t run a step. You have to have second and third finishers jump just to get Nyquist back to his last.

[big18741]

Going to Florida couldn\'t have worked out any better for the connections.
Win the race,stay undefeated and pick up a million dollar bonus.

If they stay in California for the Santa Anita Derby he finishes 3rd?

[TempletonPeck]

How do you possibly justify the guess that he finishes 3rd in the SA Darby?

[big18741]

1-2 finishers from the San Felipe are better route horses in my opinion and the #\'s here would support that.

I thought this before the Florida Derby and nothing that happened in that race changed my mind.

[jerry]

Both will be off the board. Keep looking.