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Messages - Deadrockstar

#1
Pat Cummings tells the story of pool manipulation and Will Rogers Downs\"

\"In April 2021, at least three instances of tote pool manipulation occurred in quinella pools at Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma.

Extremely large wagers, relative to the size of the overall pool, were placed on combinations likely to lose, inflating the actual tote returns on more favored horses.

The goal of such manipulation is to dramatically change the odds on the pari-mutuel outcomes and win far more by betting through a non-parimutuel operator (like a GMO) which pays at track prices and at generous limits. While the manipulated bets on the legal, pari-mutuel pools are expected to be losing ones and inflate the returns for other successful customers, the manipulator aims to make a far larger score through their other plays. There were instances of such manipulation through the mid-1990s at Nevada racebooks before most books stopped booking racing bets and adopted pari-mutuel wagering on racing.

The quinella pool at Will Rogers typically handled between a few hundred dollars to less than $2,000 per race. In the most egregious example of manipulation, which occurred in Race 2 on April 27, the quinella pool totaled $7,469 for this Oklahoma-bred claiming event.

The winning quinella (first two horses in any order) featured the two favorites in a five-horse field and returned an astounding $51.30 for every $1 bet. The exacta with the same horses returned $6.20 while the trifecta with the third choice in betting running third paid $9.60.

What seemed like a gift for favorite backers could have been a nightmare for those who legitimately backed the two longest-priced runners in the small field if that result had materialized. The quinella probable payouts featuring those two horses, who closed at 6-1 and 9-1 in the win pool, would have returned $1.05 for every $1 bet.\"
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: McConnell bill
September 09, 2020, 03:30:01 PM
As best I can tell, no language regarding race day lasix, though I read it quickly. McConnell told me he plans on trying to pass it this year and will raise the issue with Pelosi soon. I\'ve covered the Hill for a long time and I suspect it\'s a reach -- no cosponsors from MD, FL, LA, for instance. But we\'ll see.
#4
Ask the Experts / CD analysis
May 23, 2020, 12:46:01 PM
I’m assuming the middle pick four at Churchill will come up light after the analysis pegged the first two legs. Nice job
#5
Ask the Experts / NYRA Analysis
August 08, 2019, 07:58:38 AM
I will give credit where credit is due. Alan or whomever did the Spa analysis yesterday put up a nice 3-horse exacta box that paid $300 and set me up for this weekend\'s trip to Saratoga. It recommended the 41-1 shot that got DQed the other day.

So while it can be a little spotty sometimes, I have made some nice hits using TG plays while listening to trip handicappers as well.

Will be watching CNL to see how well the numbers do.
#6
Ask the Experts / Re: Preakness
February 22, 2019, 04:51:00 AM
Newsflash: Despit some recent and mostly superficial improvements Laurel is a dump too. And way too small to host an event like the Preakness.
#7
Ask the Experts / I didn't play him, but...
January 06, 2019, 02:17:32 PM
The line on Quietude, who won at AQ at 60-1 actually looked very positive. Slow pair (23), then a jump to a faster pair (17.75/17.5) with today\'s jump (with weight and a good rail) not wholly out of the question. Didn\'t see him getting all the way there but at those odds...

And if you believe the quarter point move theory that Rag players talk about....

I was at the Ravens game and didn\'t play
#8
Ask the Experts / Brutal
November 21, 2018, 05:06:08 PM
Well, Fox Rules gave those of us who used the AQ analysis to play the Pick six a thrill but that was a brutal beat.
#9
Ask the Experts / Promo credits
October 15, 2018, 10:41:24 AM
Are revived NYRA credits also good for BEL or just KEE?
#10
Ask the Experts / Re: Today's analysis
August 01, 2018, 06:47:18 PM
Wednesday\'s had another. 9/2 over 44/1 exacta in the 6th. I passed, however
#11
Ask the Experts / Re: Done Deal/TGJB
July 28, 2018, 12:32:51 PM
Thanks
#12
Ask the Experts / Done Deal/TGJB
July 28, 2018, 09:12:39 AM
Is the TG figure accurate? Chart # was wrong per Twitter.
#13
Ask the Experts / Friday, Belmont 5th
June 13, 2018, 05:48:22 PM
How do we read a horse like Slick Silver off an 03X to start his career?
#14
Ask the Experts / Re: Thorograph Seminar
May 07, 2018, 10:41:15 AM
Sad! No redboarding then but the BEL sheets yesterday were key to the very logical 10/1 and 15/1 horses in the early P5. And then low and behold they were picked in the analysis.
#15
Ask the Experts / Re: Two comments
May 05, 2018, 03:33:59 PM
On the bright side, there\'s a pretty good chance of an almost $3M pick5 carryover