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Messages - Michael D.

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: BC Classic Projected Odds
November 01, 2025, 06:52:14 AM
Juv/Classic double -

1   $7.20
2   $20.10
3   $60.50
4   $252.30
5   $8.30
6   ---
7   $9.30
8   $11.00
9   $15.90
10   $37.00
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: BC Classic Projected Odds
November 01, 2025, 06:50:13 AM
rezlegal Wrote:
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> Do you have the will pays for the Juvenile Sprint-
> Distaff double? ThanksR


Here\'s the JuvFillies/Distaff double -

1   $35.90
2   $145.60
3   $110.30
4   $55.30
5   ---
6   $311.30
7   $158.50
8   $30.40
9   $873.40
10   $704.90
11   $465.40
12   $46.80
13   $116.70

for $1
#3
Ask the Experts / BC Distaff
October 30, 2025, 11:10:16 AM
Nitrogen (4-1) - I\'ve thought Nitrogen has been a bit overrated, and was expecting to be against her here, but with posts drawn and numbers in, she looks pretty darn solid. Should save ground most of the way and is quick enough to find the hole when Jose says go. 9f looks like a good distance. Gets few lbs from the favorites. 4-1 seems fair.

Regaled (30-1) - I\'ll sometimes take an ugly one number sheet if the price is right. Regaled has an ugly one number sheet and the price will be big. It\'s only her 4th start for Beckman though, and she was trending somewhat nicely heading into the DelH, trying to close into a few slow paced races. Not sure how fast the pace will be here, but there are a bunch of speed/stalker types and the field should spread out a bit, giving her a decent shot at getting a good deep closer trip. Bombs away.

Key Nitrogen and Regaled.
#4
Ask the Experts / BC Turf Sprint
October 29, 2025, 12:19:40 PM
I\'m not good at these things, and I think they\'re bad for the game, so I usually stay away, but something jumped out at me regarding Bring Theband Home. He learned his craft over the rock hard GP turf course, and ran his fast numbers over a very firm Sar course. While the WO turf was listed as firm in his last race, it didn\'t look very fast to me. That\'s a pretty ugly figure there, but at 12-1 I\'ll look for something closer to his tops as he gets back to what could be his preferred surface type. Race shapes puts Theband in a good spot early. Key.
#5
Ask the Experts / Re: Delay
October 29, 2025, 10:39:01 AM
Jerry, what\'s the support email. Having trouble with my order.
#6
Ask the Experts / Re: He Is Scratched
October 29, 2025, 09:48:24 AM
This is probably a good time to remind everybody that Baeza is a May foal.
#7
Nice analysis, Richie. $12.60 was a pretty good price on that filly.
#8
It looked like Rispoli was getting after Journalism for much of the race. I\'m not sure they wanted to be too far back. It was a pretty good pace too.

Btw, I think this 3 yr old division might be even more interesting by 5:45 Saturday.
#9
Journalism ran his final two 1/16s in 6.12 and 6.16. He inhaled two good horses, and they were still running.

On to the Pacific Classic is my guess.
#10
Focus959 Wrote:
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> Was that the slowest Met Mile in history? Raging
> Torrent 94 Beyer and Fierceness bounces to the sky
> w/90 Beyer. Nobody showed up.

Grok says the Beyer was 106. Did they change it?
#11
Ask the Experts / Re: Sovereignty Plans
June 08, 2025, 06:37:15 AM
johnnym Wrote:
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> Winner received a 109 beyer should be a TG number
> around a -2
> I’m guessing Journalism paired.
>
> Hopefully we see them again in the Travers.
>
> Both are damn good horses.


Journalism and Sovereignty ran the same figure yesterday.

This is Affirmed/Alydar or Sunday Silence/Easy Goer type stuff. It\'s AP Indy, Unbridled, Bernardini ....these horses are incredible. And I\'m keeping Baeza right in the mix.

I freakin love HISA.

Would McCarthy skip the Travers and run in the Pacific Classic? Why ship? If he wins, then wins the BC Classic, he\'s HOY, regardless of what Sovereignty does. Not saying that\'s right (or wrong), but it\'s 100% they vote McCarthy over Mott if that happens.

But most important - let\'s hope all of these great 3 yr olds stay healthy.
#12
Ask the Experts / Re: Journalism
May 19, 2025, 09:42:04 AM
Prat steered GO out for clear run down the stretch. Rispoli saw that and darted for the hole. Unfortunately for Umberto, GO drifted back in within a matter of seconds. Just one of those bang-bang things.

Not sure why GO went back in, but I suspect it was due to immaturity and not something Prat wanted.
#13
Ask the Experts / Re: Journalism
May 17, 2025, 04:32:36 PM
And the owners: “on to New York” and “bring on Sovereignty”. Love it.
#14
Ask the Experts / Re: Journalism
May 17, 2025, 04:27:06 PM
This is a serious group of 3 yr olds. Best in many years, imo.
#15
Ask the Experts / Preakness
May 17, 2025, 07:55:14 AM
River Thames - nice forward looking pattern and good rest into a race they\'ve had on the schedule for a while. Probably needs just point or so of improvement to be dangerous. The extra ground could be his undoing, but he ran a good number going 9f over a demanding Kee surface so hoping that bodes well for this 1 3/16 trip at Pim. Good value, even if he drifts lower from the 9-1.

Journalism - textbook can\'t bet on/can\'t bet against. But too much # power here to let this guy ruin me.

Heart of Honor - had no interest in this horse until I saw the sheet, and I still don\'t love him, but he\'s 20-1. Fits well enough to use at 20-1.


Key River Thames. Use the above three.