Miff and Sight -

Thanks for adding some sensible comments re:Biancone. You are correct. The only issue here should be the cobra venom. But that\'s the part that never added up. That would be something you might find in a claiming trainer\'s barn. It would have the same effect as something like Sublimase for whatever joints it was used on.  He trains young horses and grass imports.  Now if they had found blood-doping kits or something like that I would say this looks bad.But cobra venom? It\'s used to block feet, diagnostically or otherwise. Cobra venom is not the reason he succeeds, that much I can assure you.

Also consider:
* Dr Stewart has testified that he put the bag in the refrigerator and that Biancone had no knowledge of it.
* Biancone has said he has no knowledge of it
* He passed a polygraph on this point and on whether he has ever used cobra venom
* He turned over his computer and all records and there apparently is nothing incriminating there.
* No needles or syringes were found.
* Biancone was never interviewed by the KHRA.

I know Patrick believes he was set up.  But I also know that KHRA Pres Lisa Underwood has said in the press that they did not act on a tip.  I know Lisa well and I believe her. So then why did they do the raid? I guess because he had a positive at Churchill for an asthma medicine on a 2 year old (who didn\'t even have lasix!).  In my opinion what has happened here is the KHRA, on a mission to clean things up, raided a trainer after a very minor offence and found an illegal medication that he has never used that unfortunately was put there by a vet 45 minutes before the search.

I think most people would agree that IF my assessment is true then a one year suspension, effectively taking away someone\'s livelihood is excessive.


Disclaimer - I have 2 horses in training with PB. I can tell you this much.  He is an outstanding horseman, one of the best I have been around.

1- Do you have data on other tracks?

2- I still think the grass times should be looked at more closely. It\'s a little dismissive to just say that grass is getting slower too.  Certainly the new carpets at Hollywood and Gulfstream are faster surfaces than traditional grass courses.I know Epsom Derby times haven\'t improved much from the 1940\'s.

3- How do you figure drugs are a major part of what makes horses run faster? Legal drugs (Lasix, Bute, Banamine, Clenbuterol, Robaxin, etc) are not stimulants and shouldn\'t make horses run faster. So are you saying that all the horses are hopped on illegal drugs? If so I\'m not with you. Perhaps you are referring to steroids?

The percentage that make money is not the important thing. If you have 4 yearlings to sell you could sell 3 for a loss but if the fourth one knocks it out of the park you make money on the group.  So that stat is a little misleading. Most breeders are doing fine IMO.

TGJB -

I\'ve read it and think it\'s a very interesting theory. I\'m just not sure it\'s correct. Belmont is just one track. We discussed this in a thread a couple years ago. That\'s one reason why I called Joe King. I asked him if the tracks are considerably slower now than 30 years ago. He told me no. I said I heard that when Secretariat won the Belmont there was a 2 3/4 inch cushion.  He told me no way. So are you trying to say he is out of it and is not a good source?

I agree it is logical that horses should be getting faster. We have been selectively breeding a certain type for 20 years at least.  Sprinter milers to be specific. So we should be getting faster horses up to a mile and slower horses from 9-12 furlongs. That\'s probably what we are getting.  But to say that Secretariat would be a nice allowance horse now and that you couldn\'t find him in today\'s Triple Crown races is taking a (now disputed) data point about cushion depth and extrapolating it way too far in my opinion.  The best way to resolve this is to study grass racing.  When we discussed this you dismissed that because of pace but that should be a constant.  I don\' think we\'ve changed the way we ride grass horses. And if you look at it observationally it does seem that grass sprints are getting faster and the routes are not. I did look at some major races like the Yellow Ribbon that have been run for decades and the times were faster in the seventies.

Also do you believe tracks are getting slower and horses are getting faster each year or did this level off at some point?  It seems that fig inflation has accelerated the past few years.

TGJB -

When I wrote the Final Turn piece I was limited to 735 words so I cut a lot out. I had a long conversation with Joe King and we talked about every track. I had a theory that the tracks had changed dramatically over the past 30 years both with limestone base replacing clay and deeper cushions being added to make up for the harder base. He said that the only tracks which have limestone bases are the winterized tracks or tracks used for Standardbreds. As for the cushions he said they have not changed appreciably and that goes for all non limestone based tracks and he specifically mentioned all 3 NYRA tracks, Churchill,Santa Anita (old track) etc. He said the cushion may be 1/4 inch more now than it was 30 years ago but he thought that was negligible. He also said you have to be very careful in how you measure the cushion.  It can vary by more than an inch depending how fluffed up it is when you measure.

I think your point on steroids is right on the mark. But that is my point. The medication is counter productive. By the way I have had horses with Bobby Frankel and Patrick Biancone and they are both very anti steroid and view the fact they don\'t use them as a factor in their success.

And yes the breed has been weakened.  I don\'t deny that. People are trying to breed a good looking yearling which will sell. But what sells?  Yearlings which look like rocket ships, big hip, well muscled because these do often make good race horses albeit fragile. But my other point is our horses are much tougher than we think when raced in other locations where they don\'t medicate nearly as much. And I\'m talking about legal medication. This is the real problem, not illegal medication in my opinion.

Synthetic tracks could and should change this. Horses won\'t bleed as much because they are less stressed. The use of Lasix should naturally decline unless this mindless drug culture persists. Minerals won\'t be depleted from the drugs, horses will recover faster and run back sooner, field sizes will go up. Trainers won\'t feel pressured to run sore horses.  Horses will hang around longer kind of like many grass horses do now. Our racing should start to look more like other countries.

Bob Trussell aka

Ok here's the contrarian opinion. IMHO this site is way over the top on the drug issue. The prevalent assumption here of some murky vet with some magic \"juice\" controlling some group of \"super trainers\" would make for a good novel but it borders on paranoia.

It\'s all just sheer speculation and I think largely unfounded.

"Juice" implies a hop. What if the juice for Scott Lake is myectomy (fix throat) and deep tissue massage as he has publicly stated. What if for Dutrow he has Allday fix them behind through internal blisters or injecting stifles or whatever (as he explained in DRF article).  What if Frankel\'s thing is he just doesn\'t run them until they are right, buys domestic horses cleverly and knows better than anyone what to do with a Euro import (as he has been doing for 20 years).  

It\'s called horsemanship.

Either it's that or it's one vet with some magic juice that he can use with impunity and nobody else can figure out what it is.  The logic that every time someone has success it's because they are simply the most daring and crooked is IMO the height of cynicism.

Don't get me wrong I know there are cheaters out there and I am with you on the Maryland thing and tightening up the testing to punish transgressors and restore public confidence. It's just not as bad as you think. It's not that easy to hop a horse. And it usually doesn't work.

The recent press has been centered around milkshakes. Milkshakes have been around for 30 years.  It's like a marathon runner eating a candy bar during the race. It is right to outlaw them but it\'s not magic juice.

Dutrow\'s suspension was for a \"caine\", like Novocain which is a local anesthetic and the first thing they test for (so that can\'t be what he\'s \"using\") plus clenbuterol which has often been legal in certain jurisdictions. Hardly \"juice\". Most \"hops\" through the years are really just pain killers like Sublimase which allow class horses to do their thing.  

Have you ever noticed how the super trainers' horses look better than anyone else's?  How could a hop do that?

JB - You have a great product and provide wonderful insights to bettors. However it seems the premise behind your thinking lately is that horses are getting faster because they are hopped. The thing is you have scant proof of either.  I find it amazing that you couldn't analyze the derby until you find out where Afleet Alex took a bath! It's so far over the top it's laughable. Handicapping races is hard enough without contortions over figuring out who does or doesn't' have the \"juice\".

JB - I\'ll add one thought. If you\'re not using pars what TG figs really are is a sophisticated type of Timeform rating. Who beat who by how much. Timeform doesn\'t figure in ground loss (many races don\'t have turns) but they are very much into weight.

Every year at the end of the year Timeform must recalulate their ratings in their weekly \"blackbook\" to determine year end ratings for the annual edition.  They do that because the numbers tend to rise throughout the course of the year. The top horses end up the year at say 140 and come out at the annual at 130. I suspect that may be happening here but also suspect you would not agree.

ctc-

Regarding Wilko we were talking aptitudes not class.  So in the end did he get the trip? I don\'t know.

I don\'t think any of them got it. Slow race on fast track. We\'re breeding milers. And no one\'s going to tell me Giacomo\'s 2:02 4/5 would have beaten Secretariat\'s 1:59 3/5 becasue the scraped the track more back then.

Maria\'s Mon did sire derby winner from mare with tons of stamina. HL doesn\'t have that.

MM won the Champagne and then got hurt.

Agreed. Its hurting the credibilty of TG.

It\'s correct to point out that everyone of them had strikes against them going in:

1)The hot pace that fried the leaders was predictable and predicted.  It happens more often than not in this race.
2)The lack of seasoning for many was widely understood (except by TGJB. I think its clear that the TGJB theory that everything has changed and the trainers somehow train different now is just plain wrong).
3)Many were doubtful to get the trip on pedigree.

So what happened? It all came true. Twenty horses were asked the question turning for home and for the above reasons NONE of them had an answer.

Somebocdy had to win.

And please it had nothing to do with drugs.

CH -

you are exactly right.  It was hard to imagine a scenario where HL wins. But somehow he was the figure horse for Thorograph?

this is not answering your question but i thought it could be helpful.  i did a rough survey of the winners the last 22 years. my defintion of pairup may be a little different than TGJB but here it is:

New TOP -41%
Bounced but still won - 12%
paired up new top - 25%
matched prior top but less than last race -22%

then i looked at the last 10 years.  The percentages were about the same. bottom line is 2/3 of the winners ran as good or better than previous race.  1/3 ran worse but still won.

wilko\'s second dam was effective at 9-10f. awesome again won 4 big races at 10f so he was kind of a 10f specialist. He will probably get the trip but he doesn\'t have to. Indian Ridge is a sprint/mile influence. WIL compares well with the last 2 winners of the derby who were buy stone sprinters.

I would also think there must be a stamina doubt for Bandini and High Limit. Ban is by Fupeg who was bred to be a miler and probably was.  He lost 2 of 3 longer than 9f and got the trip of the century in the Derby to beat Aptitude 1 1/2 lengths.  Second dam helps but Dixieland Band is another miler influence.

HL has a ton of speed on damside and Maria\' Mon has only a 6.86 AWD (average winning distance).

I think yes it does makes sense and i think Crist is wrong.  Its a 20 horse field and we all are searching for angles. I like the idea of tossing Ban, BR, HL,GG, NC,FA, and CS for being too unseasoned or 2 few preps.  The conditions of the race hasn\'t changed. Most horses don\'t want to go this far this early and with a big field and fast pace it often falls apart when they all pile into the quarter pole. So you want a seasoned closer who can get the trip.  It doesn\'t work every year but no angle does. BR might be the 2nd coming of Hindoo but to take 3/1 on him in the face of the history of this race doesnt maje sense to me.  Another angle against him is the fact he hasn\'t had a hard race, arguably ever.  you don\'t get ready for a race likr the derby wit2 strolls in the park, however impressive. asl Point Given and Talkin Man. You got to take a stand against him IMO.

wow the odds % add up to 143%.  don\'t they know how to do a line over there?
odds will be much higher.