Animal rights activists must be jumping for joy. I think I\'ll celebrate with a nice juicy hamburger while handicapping Sunday\'s card.

In a 20 horse field it is impossible to devine who will get an untroubled trip.
It is not difficult, however, to predict that a large percentage of the field will lose ground around the turns. The single most likely horse to save ground and run a shorter distance to the wire is easy to identify.

Take Charge Indy should get a rail since his rider wants the wood and the 2 inside horses will not show speed. Trinniberg will clear the field by at least 2-3 lengths unless Hansen cannot be rated. I believe Bodemeister will attempt to rate in the 2 or 3 path. He will have Hansen to his immediate outside unless Hansen is too headstrong. Gemologist and I\'ll Have Another figure to be on the outside in relatively close attendance. Union Rags will be forced to show more speed, but should not be in front of Take Charge Indy. The horses in the next flight should be Alpha, Went the Day Well and El Padrino.

As I see the race, Take Charge Indy will be on the rail and 4-6 lengths off the lead as they spin out of the first turn. If it works out this way, Take Charge Indy will have an obvious advantage over the wide runners and those who will have to weave through the field. Accordingly, Take Charge Indy will be on all my tickets along with Daddy Nose Best.  The latter has been training great and has the foundation and running style to be a major factor.

Miff:

I have dealt with the Inspector General\'s in regard to several matters over the years. If they investigate, they will uncover any wrongdoing and will refer the matter for criminal prosecution. Haywood and his associates have reason to be concerned.

Albany

Alm:

Just to be clear. The purpose of my post was to point out that Dosage Theory has in recent years been a reverse barometer of Derby performance. In other words, horses who don\'t qualify under Dosage are statistically more likely to run well than those who do qualify. I was also asking others to provide some examples to help prove this point.

Since I am in agreement with your position, I didn\'t understand why you would be \"snarky\" toward me. In any event, I recognize that you have strong opinions and respect your passion for the game. So, should we actually disagree on something in the future, I am hopeful that you will pay me the same respect.

Albany

Alm:

Did you read my post?

Does it sound like I\'m an advocate of dosage?

I believe that the only likely starter in this year\'s Derby with a Dosage Index (DI) above 4.0 is Dullahan. The dosage proponents would, therefore, assert that Dullahan is not bred to go the Derby distance. Interesting assertion in light of the fact that Dullahan\'s dam has already produced a Derby winner in Mine That Bird!

In recent years very few Derby starters have DIs above the 4.0 level. Yet, I believe that several of these runners have won or run well. From a statistical viewpoint, they were more likely to run well than the majority of starters who qualify under the dosage theory.

Does anyone have the statistics pertaining to the performance of recent Derby runners with DIs above 4.0?

Daddy Nose Best has peaked my interest for a number of reasons. First, he has 10 races under his belt (8 at a mile or over). He is one of the few horses who has run twice at 1 1/8 miles and he won both times. This should give him the solid foundation that others seem to lack.

Daddy seems to be on the improve this year with his move off the turf and the stretch out in distance (the Scat Daddy\'s so far appear to like going long), The race dynamics in the Derby project to favor a closer with his type of energy distribution. Like him or not, the trainer can get the job done.

Does anyone else see anything in this horse? If not, please talk me off the ledge.

Guess I have a differeent take on the race.

Gemologist was nicely placed tracking a moderate pace. He picked up the bit after being rigorously urged on the turn, got to the lead and held well to secure the win. His race was a good one.

Contrary to Gemologist\'s run, Alpha experienced difficulty as he was steadied along the rail on the first turn and was forced to move a bit early to get position after his misfortune. Alpha made a good run given his problems and a layoff since February 4th.

If Gemologist had to overcome the problems experienced by Alpha and the latter had the conditioning edge and trip Gemologist enjoyed,  would the order of finish been the same?

Does anyone have any suggested keys for the carryover Pick 6 at the Spa?

Thanks, I\'ll check the replay when I get to the track.

If the track is favoring closers after the rain, or if it is at least playing fair, the Guillot filly in the 8th may be tough. I saw Por Que\' Te Quiero work over the track and she moves very well. Her 1:13 1/5 work was very good since the track was relatively dull that morning (the 5f bullet was 1:00 3/5). Gillot has stated that he\'s \"in love with this filly.\" That might explain why he put her in a stakes in her debut. She was seriously compromised at the start of that 5 1/2f race, but didn\'t get beat that bad everything considered. This A.P. Indy filly should benefit from the added distance today.

Anyone have an opinion on this race?

Jimbo:

Nice read on the pace. I felt that Giant Oak raced well even though he went very wide and didn\'t get an ideal set up. Lost a fair size straight bet, but underneath play helped me avoid a major financial reversal.

Albany

Jimbo:

I recognize that Giant Oak does not compare favorably to several of the other horses when it comes to numbers. My opinion of Giant Oak may be affected by the fact that I saw his 58 4/5 work in which he was physically impressive and finished with good energy. Additionally, the anticipated pace scenario should set up Giant Oak\'s late run. Among others, Morning Line, Tizway, Mission Impazible, Rail Trip, Rodman and Friend or Foe want to be on the lead or press the pace. While it is no longer fashionable to express (especially on this board), pace does sometimes make the race.

Given my respect for your handicapping ability, I will be using your selections with Giant Oak. I will go a little heavier with your second pick, Morning Line, since he ran a good second to Giant Oak in Florida.

Good luck to all,

Albany

I\'ve seen Giant Oak training and he has been impressive. The Whitney is filled with horses who run on or near the lead. Giant Oak often is forced to close into  soft early fractions. This will not be the case on Saturday.

If NY racing still had the ability to compete, it would be a regular Breeders Cup venue and there would be no need to put on its own championship.