We often talk about outside posts in 2 turn races and how much of a disadvantage it will be to be caught wide. I am curious if people think it is a negative to be in the 1 or 2 hole in sprint races. I know this might vary a great deal from track to track,  I am more curious about the major circuits(Cal, N.Y.etc.). I am also wondering how people quantify it, or how many lengths it might cost,if any. If you were to think that not being one of fastest horses early was a negative (and on the rail), this would be a situation that would make race shapes very interesting. Basically, do you think being inside lowers your probabilty of winning.

I want to thank all the guys at thorograph. You guys were awesome and very  generous. Sorry I wasn\'t able to have a better result, but as you know it is a grind and one mistake is enough to make the difference. Mine came in a sequence of about 10 mins.  late Saturday, sitting with $66 I was between 2 horses in the mandatory @GG and picked the wrong one. Then I missed the FG horse that was 14-1, he was a play but I was scared off by the track condition.{that cost me about $70 total}. Having said that I was not going to get much done on Sat.,so it probably didn\'t cost me much. The tournament was very well run and lots of fun. I am by no means making excuses, but not having SA and the weather all over the country made it tough on me. I don\'t ever play Tampa and that is where much of the action took place and the rest was kind of FG in the mud. Look forward to trying again next year. Thanks again.

Charlie

That\'s what I was thinking. I looked through many sheets this week and didn\'t find any that won. I did find a decent amount that finished ITM, which made me question my sample size. But I have just started to really reduce a horse\'s chances in these case\'s. I never really paid attention to this before, then after seeing it mentioned on ROTW I have begun to use it and found it very good info. How do you decide whether or not to give a horse BI or BO? Thanks

Any opinions on BI and BO when it occurs in a horse\'s most recent race. I\'m trying to gauge how negative this might be (if at all) and if one is much different than the other.

There is no reason to worry. I thought I heard Vic talking in terms of numbers yesterday myself, he was mentioning a certain horse running an 8 etc.I immediately felt just like you did, Oh No Vic is going to start giving away our edge. But then he promptly picked the favorite and I knew all was fine.

My point is most people don\'t read the sheets properly, they just learn to pick the fastest horse and never really understand what the sheets should be used for. I\'m not saying Vic doesn\'t know what he is talking about, I don\'t know him and handicapping on T.V. has no upside, but I do know most people still don\'t bet properly. When the pick 4 went to 50 cents at Keeneland, I was also worried, I felt people could play smarter and go deeper. It turns out they don\'t change there betting style at all, they still bet chalk and think hitting the all button is a smart play. Bottom line pools got bigger and payoffs improved. I think this could be a win win, Jerry sells more sheets and people now know who the fastest horse is, that\'s perfect.

I feel the same way about most pick 6 syndicates,just because they think they can buy a ticket,doesn\'t mean they have positive expectancy, let them fire away because those are bad bets and they help build the carryover\'s. I see nothing but opportunity.

Good Luck

I was reviewing this race to see what I had missed. I only gave Mostbeautifulstorm about a 3% chance to win. When she won, I was kind of surprised and couldn\'t believe how little she paid. When I looked back, I still didn\'t see anything I liked about her,usually I can make a case for anyone at the right price. For kicks, I checked her Beyer\'s, she looked much faster  in the DRF.  Did anyone else have her and why? Second, I don\'t see this happen that often,  I was wondering if you ever see a race like this and go back and check  the numbers. For example, Crafty Melissa looked much faster than her, but on DRF she was faster than CM, her last 3 races. I am not challenging the #\'s, this is more an effort to see what poly is doing to my handicapping or perhaps this was just one the leaked through the cracks.

Congrats, very imprssive analysis,looks much easier after the fact. Also, I don\'t think I have ever seen you guys use SORE next to a #, how do you come about that and why do I never see it. Jerry, the horse I was trying to think of was Big Red Mountain and he was a half to LMS, not out of,my bad.      

Can\'t believe this news, just was told a horse in Straight Line\'s barn at Churchill is thought to have strangles. He has all the symptoms and they are awaiting the test results. If he has it, we are going to be quarantined and not able to run SATURDAY. I don\'t know who else might be in that barn, but I was told they didn\'t think any horse from the Breeders races were involved. Just curious if anyone has heard anything.    

This Polytrack might get interesting, Beyer was only a 90 for Straight Line, find that pretty low. But I also saw it coming, as the 1:22 looked very avg. compared to the other races. Be interesting to see #\'s out of this race, this product may have more value than ever on poly.

Thanks, just got back, had a great time down there. Exciting to win at Keeneland and Straight Line ran a great race. I didn\'t see a horse all weekend win on the lead like that. He is really fresh and looking good, I have no clue as to what kind of # he ran, but it was visually impressive. Looking forward to Breeder\'s Day, he is going in the Ack Ack next, and he loves Churchill. Hope to catch up with everyone that weekend.  

That\'s great news!!

My concern is this will cause races to be run too formful. Will the track change much intraday or from day to day? Or does the variant remain much the same. I am afraid that we are going to get alot more chalk. Any thoughts?    

Thanks, gutsy performance, been kind of frustrating year, some small injuries and not many places to run in Midwest. The goal all year  has been to get back to the ACK ACK at Churchill, Breeders\'s Cup day. He won that race last year and they upped the purse to 200k. I guess plan is to find one race before that, any ideas?  

It only paid 3.50 shrt of the parlay, but it only goes to show how overbet favorites are. Even if he was luke warm, to the masses he was the favorite and the most logical horse, therefore he was overbet. Just proves SNS was the wiseguy horse, he was the post time favorite, but I didn\'t hear one casual fan mention him. I did hear Barbaro from many, especially those down in Kentucky all week.    

I agree with you. I am looking for someone in the second tier to jump up 4 or 5 points and get in the mix. I think Lampoon is ready to explode forward. That is why I was hoping RF didn\'t run as fast as you had her, because now she can still bounce and win. Also would you ever go back and change a number,after a couple months.