Appreciate the advice and you make an excellent point

I thought I had a handle on this race which I did and swung for the fences. The air really went out of the balloon when I was hosting our derby party and saw AK cross the finish line and realized I should have spent another $400 and keyed him in the supers or at least in the tri

My analysis and wagers

I reviewed Derby patterns for the past 10 years and noticed the most powerful number happens in horses third start which helped come up with AK.

Arch - Thought he was the best horse in the race probably pairs or goes to zero
Ranked third in Downey profile and only 1 strike according to John White list on HRTV

Brilliant Speed - fourth start pairs 5 at best no chance

Twice the Appeal - fourth start maybe pairs three, not working well according to Mike Welsch  -toss

Stay Thirst - Maybe an excuse last time pairs 3 at best, I tossed

Decisive - Fourth start pairs 4 at best  - toss

Comma to the Top - Fourth start maybe 4 at best - toss

Pant on Fire - good line and can pair 2 or maybe 1, 0 strikes - include

Dialed in - Thought he would pair up the 3 but I included because of Zito

Derby Kitten - If you included this horse you have to reevaluate your whole game

Twinspired - Pair the 5 - Toss

Master of Hounds - Biggest ? in the race. I tossed because of only one start this year.

Santiva - Thought he might have a chance to get back to one. Last race was bad enough for me to toss him

Mucho - Good line maybe pair up the 2 or better

Shack - Working great at Churchill and though he could pair or hit 1. Though he might be another Hard Spun - include

Midnight - Nervous because of baffert but this was his 5th start so a 3 was as good as it was going to get probably worse

Animal - decent line and working great at Churchill. Third start is always explosive and could freak on dirt and only one John White strike and ranked 4th on Downey profile - my second choice

Soldat - Had to include thinking Kirian can get him back to 1 or 2 range. Not a historical winning derby pattern

Nehro - good line pairs the 2 - include

Watch me go - Bad line for Derby, dont even think he gets back to 3

The Bet -

$1 super Arch/Pants,Mucho,Shack,Animal,Soldat,Nehro,Dialed In       $210
$1 super Pants,Mucho,Shack,Animal,Soldat,Nehro,Dialed In/Arch/same  $210

$1 tri  Arch/Animal/all and reverse
$1 tri  Arch/Shack/all  and reverse
$1 tri  Shack/Animal/all and reverse

GREAT EXAMPLE OF GOOD HANDICAPPING AND BAD BETTING

I came away with nothing

The horse worked lights out at Churchill if you were paying attention.

Also, the horse only had two starts in his three year old year. If you also paid attention to derby sheet patterns horses typically jump up in their third start and pair or regress in their 4th start.

My two horses were Arch and AK. I keyed Arch in the super in the one and two hole for $480. If I bet another $480 I would have hit for $24,000

Sloppy track? Jerry, are your figs too slow in Cali? How does this piece of garbage jump up like this??

Are you kidding me?

The bet for the Belmont was $1 Super Big Brown, Icabad and Dennis keyed over 7 horses for $630. I am sick I did not spend the additional $630 and put them in the 2 hole with all on top.

The harsh reality is it might take years before we have an opportunity to score like this again with this scenario the way it played out.

Looks like Hard Spun to me. SS will go backwards its just how much. The biggest key with Hard Spun is only two races in two months. If he pairs he\'s gone.

I do not understand why so many people like Tiago. He is coming off a 3 and the classic derby jump up pattern. Look at the history horses ALWAYS go backwards off this pattern!

PS I think your missing the boat on Cowtown - he has an improving line - your going against your own #\'s

Sedgefield - 1 good number backward move post 1 equals toss
Curlin - I am betting against in the one hole but might blow up my tickets - I say no
Zanjero - Have to include in the super even off the backward move of strange BG
Storm in May - No way
Imaawild - Historically a backward move pre derby does not bold well
Cowtown - This horse is high on the least knocks list but not on the wiseguy list. This horse will be in my supers might take a flyer in the one hole
Street Sense - obvious horse to beat
Hard Spun - love him but have serious reservations because of all the Derby Trail forum people picking him - That is a serious negative
Liquidity - backward move don\'t like
Teuf - not fast enough
Bwana - this horse wins I find another hobby
No biz - The atswhatiamtalking about line - have to include in exotics
Sam P - I want to toss this horse so bad. Why do some people like him???
Scat Daddy - least knocks list - classic derby winner line  - a key horse!
Tiago - I am going to toss - has the classic derby jump up pattern that does not work. This line leads to a blow up going 1 and 1/4 the first time.

I have done all the research. The winner will come from these top five -

If you disagree you have no clue

Cowtown
Hard Spun
Nobiz
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

Don\'t make this any more complicated than it is. They have the lines and the least knocks so save all the BS on the other ones.

I think you really have to re-evaluate your handicapping skills if you threw this horse out. I don\'t care how good anyone\'s speed figures are it all comes down to odds and value. Thor was a toss at 3-1 or so but live at 15-1. Sure he looked like a bounce but at those odds you have to play the pair up!

Strategy - all supers all day - swing for the fences!


Not bad  - bet 10 supers 1/6 $120 each. Hit the Juv colts for 1900. Keyed the 1 horse in the sprint off the -3 hoping he was goint to pair and he did. Did not like the 2 at a zillion to one. Pletcher always beats me. When will I learn with him he always  is a -1 then a 5 then back to the -1.



Jerry as always - great job!

\"Houston we have a problem\"

I have had enough Derby talk to last me until next year. Time for some R&R in Mexico.
Best of luck on those 2500n1y at Penn National.

Jump up horses do not do well in the derby. Did all the jump ups do poorly? I am not sure.