*** Vosburgh

His line hardly inspires confidence - but at 7-1 or better I\'m going to take a shot that Voodoo can run two efforts in a row . He was third in last years race with some trouble.
I may be wrong but I think that some of his past off races have some legitimate reasons -off surface , wrong distance , tough pace match-up .
 There does not appear to be much early pace here - which should help him secure a good trip.
Also , Gygistar could encounter a tricky trip from the fence .

*** Turf Classic

Lunar Sovereign could rate a slight overlay at 7-2 or better . Loves the course - big final and late pace number last race .

*** As I write this the sky\'s are threatening but I don\'t believe any significant rain will fall in Toronto .
The turf course should be very firm - as we haven\'t had rain in awhile .
I think Todd kabel will exact some revenge today on his earlier mistake this year , picking Mobil over Wando in the Queen\'s Plate. To me Soaring Free is the real deal . His connections excel on the turf - the wide post shouldn\'t be a problem as he has the speed to sit off Chopinina and it\'s a long run to the turn .
Wando is an absolute , with both hands - BET AGAINST .

A few other observations :

6th race - I think Volga will be overbet - 5yo with an iffy line . If the course favors speed - Ginger Gold off her last could be tough .

8th Race - If Kabel can give Battlements a hustling ride early from the fence he could last for a big piece .

bj

*** This is a good point.Even though you are adding say 5 points to all the numbers in your database which will keep the relationship of the figures the same . The actual performance level of the horses will be unfamiliar and awkward to long-time users .If horses are getting faster - so what ? Give them what they ran . bj

*** Three weeks ago I posted that Mineshaft was a bet against due to his post , weight and 3 neg figs in a row .He then ran TG\'s best ever # - and lost.
   In for a buck and a bundle - I\'ll take another shot against him today . An additional negative that I see besides the possibility of a moon-shot bounce ,is the rail draw . At this distance at Belmont the starting gate is on the clubhouse turn - so it may be somewhat difficult to get a good position from the fence .
    I think Volponi is the key horse to hit the exacta . He has the line of a good healthy horse , and with the addition of blinkers he should fire his best today .
   Hero\'s Tribute will be a price off his last . The horse seems to have a history of gate reluctance and bad starts , save the last bad one he looks solid .
   Until Harlan\'s Holiday shows something postive , he is a bet against as horses can take awhile to recover from the Dubai experience.
    Frankel usually moves up lightly raced horses with some scope for improvement . Dollar Bill is a bet against . If he wins - I swear a blood-oath to blindly bet Frankel in every Grade 1 going forward.
    Volponi may rate a win bet at 3-1 - but the key play is a prime exacta box of Hero\'s Tribute and Volponi - savers are Volponi with Judge\'s Case and Evening Attire .bj

*** I agree with you on Roar Emotion\'s line Chris , it is solid . An additional huge plus is her draw on the outside of a compact field . With her tactical speed as you mentioned , Santos can place her pretty much where he wants .
   It doesn\'t look like a great betting race to me - she might rate a slight overlay on the win end , but I wouldn\'t be so fast to dismiss Frankel . Betting against him in Grade 1s can be expensive . Maybe an exactor box with your pick? Good Luck .bj

*** After perusing the sheets for this race , it looks like jockey Todd Kabel may have made a mistake . He is named on Mobil & Wando - but it has been widely reported that he has opted for the former.
   Wando is the faster of the two horses , has a nice looking line and has done nothing wrong in his career . The BC Juvenile was a toss-out as he had an impossible post . His last was an incremental top - just over a point through his 2 yo top . He has every reason to at least pair and on 5 weeks rest , a decent chance to go forward .
   Mobil\'s last was also a top - actually a paired top and it represents a 4 point improvement on his 2 yo dirt top. He also comes to the race off a shorter layoff of 3 weeks .
   Kabel has been quoted as saying he doubt\'s Wando\'s ability to get the distance . They are by the same sire and in the DRF , Wando\'s distance ability according to Tomlinson is actually higher than Mobil\'s rating . Wando appears to be a more aggressive runner , but I don\'t think he is a need to lead type .
    Wando to win at 3-1 or better .bj

*** I agree that Consistency was certainly running to his \"name\" and had a beautiful line - I just thought on the short term he had reached the end of the line .
I didn\'t think Proud Citizen would be much of a price , and was a little iffy to go foward after the long layoff and his last effort.

Bottom line - The chalk got beat and so did I. bj

*** Favourite is breaking widest , top weight and is coming off 3 negative #\'s in a row . 2nd choice is coming off 2 negative #\'s and no wins at the distance . Time to swing for the fences .
    3 price horses catch my eye.
Slider - Hard kocking gelding has found new life at 5 . Loves track.
Crafty Shaw - almost upset the applecart in the Clark last year at 42-1 . Working well.
Woodmoon - another hard knocking 5yo gelding has run well this year . Latest was off effort .

At the weights if anyone of these can run close to their tops - they can get a big piece .

I will bet any and all over 15-1 , box them in the exactors - and save with Mineshaft.bj

*** My two cents on a couple of things . First point is that I don\'t read the author\'s analysis on the ROTW - it\'s not that I don\'t value their opinion , I just don\'t want to be influenced by it.

Best of the Rest - I\'m not convinced he can take his \"A\" game outside of South Florida .Pass

Balto Star - Has paired efforts before , should run well .

Bonapaw - Distance looks beyond his scope , obvious pace clash with Booklet .

Mineshaft - Nice developing line , gets juice . On the short term could be negative , as he has moved forward over 4 pts since late Nov . Would use as a saver but could be nearing end of the line and is listed as 2nd ML fave .

Booklet - Ran a helluva race from a very tough post on Millions day . Has reacted negatively to efforts in the past . Seems better suited to GP , and hooks Bonapaw .

Sunday Break - He is my speculation play . Would have to fire a new top as a 4 YO  - but not that big of a one based upon 3yo Spring efforts . Lots of respect for the connections .

Sunday Break to win - save with Balto & Mine in the exotics .
=====================================

As an aside JB , I don\'t know if Alydar is barred but it seems he probably is . I\'m not saying he doesn\'t deserve it , but if my memory serves , Plever was not permanently barred . Wasn\'t it a fixed time ?
Alydar can leave you foaming at the mouth I\'ve experienced  it first hand , but he writes well , and at times he is a welcome diversion from the grind of trying to make a dollar .  I\'ll tell you 2 things about him that do not apply  to Plever . He has DEFENDED your methodology on several occasions , and he is a PAYING customer .
How about a 60 day cooling off until say DERBY DAY . Then give him one last chance . bj

*** I\'m always hanging around , trying to mine the occasional handicapping nugget. I stay away from the \"sheet war\" stuff now , I\'ve seen it all before . I\'m looking forward to the Spring - as I\'m getting too old for these minus 30 wind chills up here .
I can\'t wait for Saratoga - I only started going a couple of years ago , but I tell you , that track has gotten under my skin . Stay in the short line . bj

*** Bad idea. Alydar, get some rest . bj

*** Thanks . bj

*** If you guys have now done June 30th for Woodbine  , Soundtrack\'s # for that day would be appreciated . bj

*** An observation regarding your odds model ,  the ranking of the odds it produces (from most likely to least likely winner ) is perhaps more important than the actual odds line it produces .
Your model had Transcendental as the most likely winner , the public had her as the fourth choice - this clear divergence points her out as an obvious overlay .
Her performance yesterday certainly proved the validity of that ranking .
The actual odds however were a bit troubling . Tke odds line of almost 5-1 on Raging Fever seems out of line . I believe a good question every handicapper who uses an odds line , however derived , should ask themselves is - would i stand on the other side of the counter and lay that price on a horse ?
I hope this doesn\'t appear as nit picking Chris , again it is just my observation of yesterday\'s and other races you have posted with your model . You are obviously an intelligent and articulate person who happens to be a highly skilled handicapper .
The mathematics involved in your odds model is well beyond my scope .
I use a rudimentary spread sheet analysis to project a race day TG number based upon recent TG numbers at today\'s surface and distance - adjusting for today\'s weight and projected ground loss . It keeps me from overlooking fast horses .
I thought your observations on Happily Unbridled were very insightful.
Ironically i think sheet players themselves are \"conditioned\" to sometimes outmoded thinking in term of condition analysis .
How else did Charismatic and War Emblen get away at the prices they did ?
According to the NY Times interview , Ernie Dahlman doesn\'t believe in the \"bounce\" , and
he says he is the master of the obvious . Well you don\'t get much more of an obvious play then the last out fastest TG number at the same surface and distance .
I look forward to your future posts . bj

*** Two of the above mentioned horses were Woodbine based - Langfuhr and Exciting Story .Langfuhr\'s background was actually very similar to Wake at Noon\'s as they both were pointed to the Queen\'s Plate (1 1/4 miles) ran abysmally and became decent at races up to a one turn mile. Wake at Noon has looked visually impressive this spring - at any kind of price approaching his ML - don\'t ignore . Last year Exciting story was 50-1 . Happy memorial day . bj