If they are inside AK, why are their numbers closer to his?  Shouldn\'t they have slower numbers since they traveled a shorter distance and thus a greater delta from AK?

My point was that the delta between AK and beaten horses is -- for TG -- smaller than on Ragozin and the more lengths beaten, the more this is true, in general.


Apparently, the difference is the mystery variable.

I watched the overhead view of the race on NBC (it\'s posted on the web site).  Nehro and AK were in the same path first turn -- watch closely, as the pan shot is deceptive -- it does make Nehro appear to be outside AK, but take a pencil and some paper and mark off how far each horse is from the rail at several points on the turn -- they are in the same path.

AK was slightly outside Nehro briefly on the 2nd turn.  AK beat Nehro by 2.75 lengths, which equates to 1.38 points, assuming 1 point = 1 length @ 5 furlongs.  Tack on a few feet for being slightly wider 2nd turn and you\'re at about 1.5 points, not quite the 1.75 on Ragozin, but a LOT closer than the difference TG has (.25 points).

I have no idea how Trakus figured that Nehro traveled 27 feet more.  

Also, and more interesting, looking at the entire field, if you compare the Ragozin figures for the horses that finished 2-19, TG apparently has every single horse being wider than AK.

For instance, Ragozin has AK beating Nehro by 1.75 points.  TG by .25 points, a difference of 1.5.  In every instance, the delta between AK\'s number and the beaten horse\'s number is greater with Ragozin than with Brown, which would indicate that TG sees every other horse as being wider than AK, unless their is another variable at play.  It cannot be weight or wind or track condition, so what is it?

For the horses that finished 12th and higher, the difference between their figure and AK\'s versus Ragozin\'s is 2.25 - 2.50 points!  For the 8-11 finishers, it\'s 1.50 to 1.75 points, and for 1-7 it is .50 to 1.50 points. So, the more lengths each horse was beaten, the greater the discrepancy.  And in every instance, TG has the beaten horse\'s number closer to AK\'s than Ragozin.

This is a very consistent pattern of bunching the numbers together so that there is a smaller difference in figure between the 2-19 finishers and the winner. 18 out of 18.  How does that make sense?

Mall,

Thanks.  My email is dpatent@harrahs.com.

David

Jerry,

I live in Chicago now.  I was being facetious about the Wood and Derby.  How would I get tix from NYRA -- I thought that you had to write them or something -- or do you think that they will have tix at the gate to sell?

Thanks.

Mall or TGJB -- I am that annoying guy now who only \'calls\' when he needs a favor.

My wife and I will be at SAR on Saturday, Septebmer 4.  Do either of you know how I can get two seats (anywhere will do) for that day?  The price is not a problem for me.

I have been so out of the loop lately.  Who won the KY Derby and how far off was Friedman\'s Wood #?

Thanks!

David

You mean like Secretariat was a throwout before the Belmont?

It looks like Rag. and TG had the race pretty close -- which is amazing considering all of the things that happened to the track on Saturday.  I pity the person who had to make the variants for that day.

Of course, for Jerry, it was not problem, since he already knew what every horse was going to run

As negative as I am on horses who run 1s and below (Rag. scale) this early in their lives, SJ is going to be a very tough beat in the Preakness.  Moving forward off of the AK Derby almost back to his old top makes it very hard for me to play him to \'X\' in the Preakness.  Now, on TG, he looks a bit like Peace Rules, so a bit more negative.  Still, he is so much faster than just about every other possible horse in the Preakness.  I am not seeing a ton of value there.

The bet-against may be Lion Heart, as he strikes me as somewhat ouchy based on his pattern and he is on an 0-2-X pattern (again, on Rag.).

Actually, for Arcadia, the forecast is 102 degrees.  That is 39 for all the Euros out there.

0-2 Pts. 0%
2-4 Pts. 25%
4-6 Pts. 30%
6-8 Pts. 25%
8+ Pts. 20%