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Messages - Michael

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: Bailey's Apple Blossom Ride
April 05, 2004, 11:25:33 AM
This makes me (once again) question whether or not inquiry\'s should affect pari-mutuel payoffs.  There simply is no consistency in the rulings from track2track or even day2day.
This is a perfect example, in the Apple Blossom, yes there was a definite foul, but it did not affect the order of finish, the horse is left up.
In the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Hard Ten drifts in an impedes a horse he was running away from, again, a foul, but again it in no way affected the order of finish.  In this case the horse was DQ\'d.
If either of the horses bothered in these 2 races wound up finishing 4th (instead of 3rd) I could understand disqualifications keeping the \"affect the horse\'s chance at a better placing\" part of the rules in mind.
If the aforementioned rule where not in place, I could understand both horses being DQ\'d.
Stewards make poor decisions all the time, and trainers, owners and jockeys have the right to appeal these decisions.
However, bettors, who as a whole are impacted financially even more than the connections, have no right to appeal.
And we wonder why this game has difficulty competing with casinos.
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: Santa Anita Derby
April 03, 2004, 12:19:38 AM
I think Rock Hard Ten is the \"wise-guy\" horse
only to those who have seen him in the flesh, as opposed to just on paper.
He looks like a different species, an absolute giant.  His trainer though, well, I guess we will see what he can do with his first true good one.
Personally, I would make it a 4 horse race and go for the exotics with Rock Hard Ten, St. Averil, Quinton\'s Gold Rush and Castledale.
#3
The tricky part of the enrgy return equation is that it will affect different types of horses differently.  
Within the same race a track may return X amount of energy to Horse A, and a completely different amount of energy to Horse B.  Primarily dependant on the duration of time the horses foot is in actual contact with the ground.
Because the resulting energy return occurs at different times (in relation to the initial impact) a horse whose foot is in contact with the ground for .X seconds may get a low percentage of the energy return, whereas a horse with a different duration of foot to ground contact may be getting the optimal amount of ER.
At some moisture levels, speed horses may (on the average) benefit, on the assumption that generally a horse running a 22 flat 1/4 has foot2surface contact for a shorter duration than a 24 flat 1/4 runner.
Again, this is just a generalization though, as some horses run a 1/4 mile in fewer strides than others.
Bottom line is that it is without a doubt true that the track surface, and it\'s associated variant changes from race to race, and probably from lane to lane, due to moisture content.
But in recognizing this, you must also recognize that the same phenomenon does not have consistent effects from horse to horse.  The science that proves the race to race variation does the same for horse to horse variations.
#4
Ask the Experts / Neophyte Questions
September 20, 2003, 02:06:28 PM
I just began looking at the TG figures and reading some of the forum postings.  I had a few questions regarding the figures, etc. I couldn\'t ascertain by reading the introductory material.  

1) What is meant by the term \"Live Ground\"

2)  Are the figures in the sheets actually adjusted for today\'s weight carried?
In other words, if a horse earned a 10 in his first race while carrying 120 lbs, if he is slated to carry 120 today, the sheet will show a 10 fig for that first race.  But if he is slated to carry 115 today, will the fig in his sheet be a 9?  

3)  Ground loss...I know it is notated as 3w3w, etc.  Is the figure adjusted for this, or is it just a notation.  example  2 horses exit the same race in which they dead-heated (earning the same time based figure).   If horse A shows 3w and Horse B shows 1w, will horse B show a sheet figure 2 faster than Horse A?

4)  Documentation says that at 5f 1 length = 1 point, at 10f 2 lengths = 1 point.  So I assume that at 6f 1.2 lengths = 1 point, 8f 1.6 lengths = 1 point, etc.
In relation to this, is there a time value associated with a point.  In other words, assuming the variant remains constant, does a 6f race in 1:10.50 earn a smaller number than a 6f race (same day, same variant) run in 1:10.70?  If so, is .20 seconds equal to 1.2 points at 6f (as is a length)?

Sorry for what may be review questions for most of you, i am just trying to familiarize myself with this product.

Thanks.