Article on the Bloodhorse about the Cali stewards \"investigating\" how a Mullins horse showed such dramatic improvement and was bet down heavily while stepping up in class.

http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=15999

Could TG post the figs for this horse?  Probably another non-issue, especially given the stretchout and surface and equipment changes, but who knows.  Maybe \"the juice is loose\".

OK, I\'ll bite.  What horses is Harthill associated with in this year\'s derby?

Mike, you are totally missing the point with ground loss.  Those late pace figure you refer to do not take ground loss into effect, and yes, the late pace figure would include most of the last turn (race length minus 6f at races over 1 mile), so the last 3f in the case of the SA derby.  

For the sake of argument, lets say that if a horse runs the last 3f (1980 feet) in 35 seconds (I know they went slower than this in the SA derby) he will receive a late pace figure of 100.  The actual feet per second traveled is 56.57 ft/sec.  Since DD finished 5 lengths back, they compute that it took him 36 seconds to cover (1/5 sec per length) and came up with his late pace number that way.

By their calcualations he ran 55 ft/sec.  But actually, since he was in the 3 path he traveled 2010 feet during that time for a result of 55.83 ft/sec.  A big difference there if you look at the numbers.  So I take those pace numbers with a grain of salt.

The other point is that when racing wide, a horse is trying harder to keep pace with the horses inside him, leaving less in the tank for the stretch.

Mo, prove to me that he \"wont run inside other horses\".  When it was the last time it was attempted, back as a 2yr old when he ran an 8?  He has never went backwards, so if he ever did race inside horses, it certainly didnt affect him much on paper.  He is much more mature now, he may be able to handle it and it certainly is worth a shot.  Yes, he is not good enough to win any grade 1 right now, when you are spotting the field at least 2 points to begin with, you\'d have to be a freak to overcome that.

Chris said:
\"I have to believe that he and Bailey are smart enough not to try those tactics at Kee but you never know. DD may just be one of those horses that does not like to run inside of other horses\"

Jerry Bailey said (after the race):
\"It was a good effort,\" said Bailey. \"Bob (Baffert) told me that he (Domestic Dispute) needs to be outside, but you can\'t give up that much ground on this track.\"

I guess they aren\'t that smart.  Hey Baffert, HELLOOOOOOOO, you keep telling riders to keep him outside and he is not winning.  It\'s been so long since he raced on the inside, how do you know he will still react adversely?  Maybe it\'s time for some different strategy to see if it makes a difference, unless you enjoy collecting those 3rd place checks.

Full disclosure:  I have future bets on DD and am pulling my hair out as a racing fan knowing there is a horse out there who has run (presumably) four straight 2s and may not even make it to the derby because on the surface they look like \"poor efforts\" because of the ridculously stupid rides.  Santa Anita, I can somewhat forgive because that track plays fairly to outside horses, but Keeneland is a rail track and everyone knows it.  No excuse for having him 5 wide, no matter what baffert says.

I have no problem at all with the idea of uniformity between all tracks, that is a tremendous concept, (both in payoffs and meds).  But Beyer submits in his article that $2 payoffs for all exotics should be that uniformity and that simply does not make sense.  It should be based off the minimum wager.  Horseplayers are not so simple-minded that they have to have all payoffs shown on the same $$ amount, well most of them anyway.  California does it the right way and everyone should follow that model.

Chris, I see where you are coming from also, but I think Baffert is right on the money where he asks for uniformity.  It\'s quite apparent that he was using the same meds he always has been for this horse and then suddenly hit a state where he had to change his methods and it didn\'t work out quite right because he wasn\'t used to working like that.

To respond to Vegas, I think the fine represents the actual effect that the test results and the medication invovled reflect.  If it were cocaine or something like that, it would be a much bigger deal.  It\'s kind of like getting a speeding ticket for going 65 in Pennsylvania where the speed limit is only 55.  I can go 65 in Ohio, so what makes Penn so special?  Same concept here.

I too wonder what trainers are getting away with that isn\'t tested yet, but Baffert\'s call for uniformity among tested drugs is right on.  Unlike that idiot Andrew Beyer\'s column a couple weeks ago about wanting uniformity in payoff prices at tracks, suggesting that everything be based on $2 bets (even exotics).  Hello!  Payoffs should be posted on the minimum allowable wager.  If you happened to wager a multiple of that minimum, do the math yourself.  Sorry, I am still amazed at the stupidity shown in that column and had to get it off my chest.

Chris,
I\'ve always known you to be a pretty bright guy and very fair in your analysis, but the spin you have put on this situation is wrong.  If you read Baffert\'s statement, he says: \"The deal is, clenbuterol is legal in every state, but almost all of them have different levels on withdrawal times,\" Baffert said. \"In this case, we did everything we could to comply with the rules, cutting off a week in advance, as our records show.\"  It\'s quite obvious this horse has been legally using this drug his entire carrer and LA just happens to have differnt regs about it.  You make it sound as though he has used some sort of banned substance to enhance performance.

reprinted from the Blood Horse;
-----------------------------------

The Thoroughbred Corp.\'s Kafwain was disqualified from his second-place finish in the March 9 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds because he raced with an excessive amount of the bronchodilator clenbuterol. Trainer Bob Baffert said he did everything to comply with the rules but wouldn\'t appeal because Kafwain would miss at least his next race.
In addition, Baffert called for uniformity in medication rules, and went so far as to say he\'d contribute financially to the cause.

The Louisiana State Racing Commission took the action March 28. The purse money of $150,000 for second place will be redistributed.

Baffert, in a prepared statement, said the ruling was not appealed because under Louisiana rules, Kafwain would not have been ineligible to race pending the outcome. By waiving the right to appeal, Kafwain is eligible to race in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby April 5.

Post-race urine tests determined Kafwain had 16 nanograms of clenbuterol in his system. The allowable limit in Louisiana is 10 nanograms of clenbuterol. Baffert was fined $1,000 for the violation.

\"Baffert declined his right to test the split portion of this (blood/urine) sample,\" the commission\'s ruling said. \"Following a hearing, the stewards concluded the drug contained in the sample could have produced analgesia in, stimulated, or depressed the horse or could have masked or screened a drug not permitted.\"

The second- through fifth-place purse money will be redistributed. Funny Cide was placed second, Lone Star Sky third, Defrere\'s Vixen fourth, and Badge of Silver fifth. Peace Rules won the Louisiana Derby.

\"The deal is, clenbuterol is legal in every state, but almost all of them have different levels on withdrawal times,\" Baffert said. \"In this case, we did everything we could to comply with the rules, cutting off a week in advance, as our records show.

\"I have no idea what tests Louisiana does or doesn\'t do, or how much money they spend on their testing compared with California, New York, or other states where I race. I do know if I contest this, under Louisiana rules, the horse can\'t run until the case is resolved.

\"We\'ll take our lumps on this, but we look forward to the day when the sport has uniform medication rules and uniform testing in every state. I, for one, would be happy to contribute a percentage of earnings to fund uniform testing. I challenge the rest of the industry to join me.\"

Kafwain has four wins, two seconds, and a third in 10 starts with earnings of $625,848.

You guys are leaving out a pretty important part of the analysis, track bias.  The homestretch favored the rail almost to the point of absurdity yesterday, and most of last week.  If you notice Funny Cides stretch run, he falls way back and then is suddenly miraculously making up ground by the end of the race.  This was not an isolated incident, 7500 claimers have been doing the same thing all week, horses look compeletely done, and then suddenly come back on the inside.  It\'s quite apparent that being wide on the track there is not advantagous, not just on the turns.  

All things considered, I think Kafwains performance was outstanding and on a track that plays fairer, both for speed and position bias, he will run much better.  I think they\'d better avoid Keeneland and perhaps try out the SA Derby instead.

I wish I could say I\'m surprised, but I\'m really not.  I will say this, Sam Houston is one of the most predictable tracks out there and if use of this is rampant, it isn\'t yielding many cases of unexplainable results.  With racing at Santa Anita completely falling apart this year (short fields, 6.5 turf races playing completely differently than years past) SH has easily been the track I have done the best at this winter.  Those 12% takeouts on pick3 make for some nice payoffs, even when favorites come in.....

Chris, can\'t argue with any of your logic.  DD was the only bet I actually placed, mostly on Baffert\'s history.

I will have to disagree on Saintly Look, he reminds me a lot of EasyFromTheGetGo last year.  Great line moving into Feb, but went nowhere from there.  I\'m fully on board with the logic around not going faster than 6 as a 2 yr old, but I think you MUST have went faster than 6 by the end of Feb if memory serves.  Unless Badge ran a negative number, I don\'t think SL moved forward off his previous 6s.  

From memory, the only time a backward move has actaully turned into something profitable on derby day was TGulch, Monarchos, and Invisible Ink(who got robbed by not having his objection upheld, OK that was a joke).  They all had backward moves off a number 3 or lower.  If you are going backward off a 6, it doesn\'t look good.

Speaking of half-wits, you are obviously too stupid to realize that the TG site was not the problem, nor did their customer service have anything to do with it.  There was a large virus spreading thru the entire internet on saturday which crippled internet routers and blocked traffic to many locations, not just thorograph.  You and Ragozin\'s product are made for each other, and next time get a clue before being such a loud-mouth.

Jerry, let me start by saying that I have used your product for almost 5 years now and I think you have a far superior product (the figures) and I am fully supportive of almost all the positions you take vs. Ragozin.

That being said, you should take a much closer look at the Santa Anita analysis before patting yourself on the back.  Nick may be an exteremly intelligent individual and have tons more handicapping experience than I do, but the Santa Anita analysis so far has been MISERABLE and seems contrary to many of the basic fundamentals that need to be followed when using your figures.

The picks the first 3 days have been mostly favorites, and most of those favorites have lost.  Particularly suprising was the mention of 2yr olds Ghostzapper (OK, you didn\'t officially pick him, but why not take a stab against him?) and Ds Bertrando, who were fast, but bounce candidates based on the absolute quickness of their previous figures.  

Look thru the analysis the first 3 days and see how many favorites and second favorites were selected and how many of them actually hit.  You missed some great value chances, and I though that\'s what has always been preached, look for the value.  It seems like Nick is more concerned with the absolute number of winners he is picking vs. the ROI of his selections.  Only it isn\'t working out very well.

I never use the analysis anyway, and just happen to be looking at it because it\'s free, but it just re-inforces the fact that I don\'t need to pay $25 to have someone give me a bunch of cheap horses that don\'t even come in.  Except for your double today, congrats.

You guys are wasting your time trying to fight those Saratoga crowds.  By far the best scene in horse racing is opening day at Del Mar.  The \"scenery\" there is hands-down the best collection of beautiful people you will ever see at any racing event, blows Keenland out of the water and that\'s saying alot.  I don\'t plan on missing one the rest of my life.  But either way, everyone enjoy the \"prestige\" meets.

Happily Unbridled looks good here, look at the way Unbridled horses improve from 3 to 4.  That small top last out was a good sign, look for further improvement today at a price.  Good luck to all...

Wow!  I finally got a positive ROI!  With scratches and my no action pick 3, I\'m calculating $1164 for my total.  Pretty shocked with the race, and feel guilty about Proud Citizen, although it sounds like he will be alright.  Before the race I told a friend I would not be surprised to see him break a leg during the race.  Wasn\'t that bad, but he went off in an ambulance.  That\'s about the only pick in the race that was close for me.  Did anyone cash that?