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Messages - jbelfior

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: CAW and Billy Walters
November 12, 2025, 03:56:50 AM
As in race 2 at Parx yesterday. Jock falls off the 8 at the start, odds go from 5 to 8-1.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: CAW and Billy Walters
November 11, 2025, 12:06:16 PM
And sometimes they\'re wrong. See results of Saturday\'s LI Handicap; 7-1 over 7-1--exacta pays $248. They obviously sent it in on Beach Bomb (guessing they didn\'t look too closely at her TG sheet). Warms my heart.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
#3
Are they the ones that drove his odds from 47 to 25-1 as they were loading?
Someone check the tattoo.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
#4
I need someone to explain Ethical Diamond to me.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
#5
Ask the Experts / Re: BC Classic Projected Odds
November 01, 2025, 05:38:51 AM
Apologies, I don\'t. Best of luck in the Distaff.

Good Luck,
Joe B.
#6
Ask the Experts / BC Classic Projected Odds
November 01, 2025, 03:54:57 AM
Based on double payouts.

Fierceness 3.3
Forever Young 3.5
Sierra Leone 4.0
Mindframe 5.4
Journalism 6.8
Baeza 7.2
Antiquarian 14.9
Nevada Beach 22.6
Contrary Thinking 97.8

Good Luck,
Joe B.
#7
Ask the Experts / Locked
October 24, 2025, 06:17:02 AM
Out of the BC Classic due to an \"untimely illness.\"

Good Luck,
Joe B.
#8
A buddy of mine mentioned the same a few months ago.

Will be interesting to see what Jonquil\'s TG number comes back.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
#9
Ask the Experts / Re: Various - Keeneland
October 02, 2025, 09:25:46 AM
Speaking of Keenland this weekend. Just looked at the TG sheets for the Coolmore Turf Mile. Boy that Kentucky Downs air sure brings out the best in the horses that run there.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
#10
Ask the Experts / Re: Poor Paco
September 24, 2025, 08:44:22 AM
How about whipping a horse in the head on the gallop out? Where does that rank?

Good Luck,
Joe B.
#11
Nice job with Clicquot. She ran a terrific race.

......and Baeza finally grew up mentally.  


Good Luck,
Joe B.
#12
Tough post at Parx going 1 1/16 for Good Cheer. I\'ll try Indy Bay to approach her number at OP back in April for Saffie.

As for PA Derby. Watched Connect from post 4 beat Gun Runner from post 7 years back. It\'s a tough trip outside of post 5 going 2 turns at that track. No easy task today for Baeza and Gosger.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
#13
Ask the Experts / Antiquarian
September 02, 2025, 04:04:54 AM
When was the last time a horse paid $28 after running a negative 4 in its prior start?


Good Luck,
Joe B.
#14
Ask the Experts / Re: Mystery Dan
August 11, 2025, 04:48:36 AM
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Roman,
>
> That\'s a great question.  I would say there are a
> multitude of reasons obviously for people\'s
> motivation to play.  Addiction, Competition,
> Desire for Money, Social Component, Intellectual
> Pursuit, Boredom, Etc.
>
> Ultimately though, the best answer is likely the
> intellectual challenge is unmatched compared to
> all other gambling endeavors.  Only so many
> blackjack combinations or roulette combinations
> can land on the table or the wheel.  Some would
> argue horses running in circles with numbers on
> the back is the same type of situation.  But quite
> obviously, when one is in tune with the
> handicapping, the game has logical outcomes that
> one can mentally find their way to **Predicting
> the future** (which I think is a powerful drug in
> and of itself especially when the game is making
> sense).  AKA **Being Right!**  Now add in the
> mental challenge of gambling on the outcome and
> deciding how to make a profit with so many
> wagering options and the complete picture of why
> it is such an amazing game is obvious.  The horses
> are majestic, the sights and sounds are out of
> this world at the right race tracks both big
> league and minor league, and the social
> interactions are like no one else.  But
> ultimately, the handicapping and gambling
> intellectual challenges are unmatched in other
> gambling choices including sports and poker.  
>
> A 2018 study from China suggested that older
> adults who participated in intellectual activities
> like betting on horse racing (among other hobbies
> like reading, board games, and cards) were found
> to have a lower risk of developing dementia.  The
> study followed 15,000 folks over 65 in Hong Kong
> where we know racing is King.  So, you can all
> tell your loved ones that handicapping and betting
> on the horses is payment for avoiding
> Dementia/Alzheimer\'s or at least delaying it.  :)
>
> While at Saratoga I took a quick gander in their
> little shrine behind FourStarDave for a few
> minutes while clearing my mind between tourney
> plays. A Mary Lou Whitney quote was on the wall
> and it said \"Horse racing is where I feel most
> alive, and at home.\"  
>
> For me, that\'s the best answer for why I play.  I
> think it is also true for many who don\'t even
> gamble on the game and are owners, jockeys,
> trainers, analysts, bloodstock agents, farms, etc
> etc.


One of the best posts I have ever read on here.

Good Luck,
Joe B.
#15
This is terrific. Love Jacinto. No filters. I\'m assuming he is referring to Bill Nack at the start of the video.


Good Luck,
Joe B.