Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - Tommy G

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: Quick Survey
June 20, 2004, 06:34:13 AM
I use Brisbet.  Originally signed up for the free $100 with your first $100 deposit...figured it was a no-lose bet on the Kentucky Derby.  I have had no problems with them.

Advantages:  free past performances as long as you make a wager on the card you download (and it can be a $2 wager).  they also have easy deposit/withdrawal which gets money into your account quickly and out into your bank account within a couple of days.  Once in a while they offer rebate days if you bet a certain track...i.e. on Pimlico day, because they couldn\'t offer it, they gave a rebate on all dollars wagered on CD.  And sure enough, the money was there the next morning.

Disadvantages:  I think the video is poor, but I only have dial-up modem, so that could be the reason.  I don\'t even view the races.

All in all, to get a bet down when you can\'t be at the track, I am satisfied with Brisbet.
#2
Thanks for your input, James.

In essence I think you are saying they were clear plays.

Somehow, at the odds, they seemed like bets-against to me.  The intervening races just seemed too far from the top for too long.  I reckon that is just cheaper horses for you.
#3
I was hoping for some insight/advice on the patterns of the winners in 5/18/04 Calder 7th and 9th.  Maybe CTC can redboard them tomorrow.

Looking back on my notes from the races,  I had scibbled \"cripple\" next to Don Hector in the 7th, and had a \"negative\" next to Show Us the Check in the 9th.  Both horses had tops which would win the race, but I just didn\'t like the vet scratch and terrible intervening races of Don Hector, and I also didn\'t like the off races of Show Us the Check.  Those two horses were the only two horses I made notes next to, and both ended up winning.

At least with Show Us the Check you could argue a circling back pattern, but all in all I thought it was a negative pattern.

Any feedback on either of these reads?

Thanks.
#4
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby wrap--Odds Line
May 05, 2003, 09:09:36 PM
dpatent,

I also use Excel and similar mechanics, although a bit more automated with fixed probability distributions based on several factors--top, post position and probable ground loss, last few races relative to top, weight, age.  I was just surprised to see your line so similar.  My initial concern after doing my spreadsheet was that 4-1 and 5-1 were pretty low odds--as pointed out by the other post.  It is a problem I have noticed...my program gives my \"favorites\" a better chance than maybe they should have and dismisses other horses at ridiculously long odds.  As you mentioned, a small tweak in assigning probabilities has a potentially huge effect on the longer horses.  

I was just curious.  Because I focus soley on overlays, I want my line as accurate as possible.  I know I am on the right track focusing hard on a good morning line since I now have more good days than bad.  Because I don\'t play so often and haven\'t had much extra time to do a proper statistical validation of my lines, I guess I was just looking for validation in some other way.  It probably was coincidence, though, since you manually assign probabilities and I do not.

Thanks for your input.

#5
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby wrap--Odds Line
May 04, 2003, 08:02:54 PM
Interesting odds line.  For what it\'s worth, I had it:

FunnyCide: 4-1
Empire Maker: 5-1
Indian Express: 10-1
Peace Rules: 11-1
Supah Blitz:  17-1
Brancusi:  17-1
Ten Most Wanted: 18-1

I\'m curious what methods you used to come up with FunnyCide at 4-1 and Empire Maker at 9-2.  Our top 2 both came out similar and the methods I use I am still \"experimenting\" with.