There are no full-time horseplayers beating the game without rebates.  The best of them are about 95-98% ROI before rebates.  I\'ve spoken to most of the biggest players, and the one thing they all agree on is if they had to win playing into a 20% take (i.e. no rebates), their wagering volume would fall by 75% or more, and at that level the compensation isn\'t worth the enormous amount of time they put in.

There\'s just not enough square money in the pools anymore to survive the 20%+ chop.

Barry, my condolences as well.  You guys did a great job with him throughout his way too short career.

Yeah, your right about SS, but it doesn\'t happen much.  And it certainly is not accurately reflected in the odds.  It\'s why my personal ROI in turf routes is so much higher than in every other type of race.

I don\'t have that data but I can tell you from studies I\'ve done pressers from post 10+ going 2Ts on 8F tracks lose on average 5 paths.  I guarantee it\'s at least that from outside posts in the Derby.  Even a stone cold closer gets the worst of it.  You can\'t exactly cut over 18 paths to tuck in, unless of course you want to drop 20 lengths out of it.

And Elliot Walden who uses TG and understands ground loss chose posts 3,4 and 5.  Horses like Dunkirk are giving up on average 6 lengths given the running style and the post.  Pressers from outside post are gigantic underlays be it the 1st Saturday in May or a mile claimer on a 7f grass course.

And yet...

Some trainer with a choice of the rail or 2 hole will select post 18 again \'so he can stay out of trouble\'.  Happens just about every year.

Jim:

My memory isn\'t what it used to be, but I think that last race was won by a horse named Houston Astro, a trainee of David Bernstein that paid like $40 or so.  The PK6 player in question ended up with two 5 of 6\'s instead of $4.4mm.

This isn\'t my worse beat, it\'s THE worst beat ever. I can\'t imagine anyone can ever relate a story that\'s worse, poker,sports, horses, etc.. I actually happened to see this transpire as I was watching the SA races on TVG, having bought a small ticket with my betting partner. On some of this, I\'m going from memory but I\'ve still got the PPs and an old story from the DRF so I\'m sure the pertinent facts are correct.


On March 3, 2004 an off-track bettor made a small investment in the SA Pick 6. The pool started with a near $2 million carry-over and swelled to $6 million when they closed betting. The player was live going into the last leg with 2 horses after hitting winners of

$7.60
$20.00
$5.20
$4.20
$24.40

His two horses were 9/5 horse Memo House which represented about a $200,000 score and 75-1 shot Flying Kegan a no-hope trained by John Cortez and ridden by Kevin Krigger. Should \'Kegan win, unlikely as it was, the bettor would hold the only ticket which would be worth $4.4 million.

The chart comments say it much better than I ever could.


Flying Kegan chased the pace outside, bid 4 wide into lane,took the lead past 1/8, and broke down with a clear lead at 1/16 pole.


If that were me, I\'d never bet another race.

Smart move for Zito to stay home.  Pure dirt both sides, I don\'t think Nick ever had any intention to run on synthetic irregardless of spacing.

So is he HOY if he wins the Cigar or the Clark?  Sounds nuts, but given this weekend\'s results not impossible, though i think it goes to Zenyatta.

The Thropattern stats for first turf are listed as roughly 18/19/24/39.  Do you have any data handy on what it would be for 3YO\'s vs 4YO\'s vs 5+?  I have to believe a horses chances of running well on turf are inversely correlated to age.  If he hasn\'t tried it by age 5 it\'s probably because his trainer(s) think he wouldn\'t run well over it.

It would be nice to know the breakout though.

Thanks.

Thought he was live last time and played him pretty good at a gazillion to one.  Second would have been a big score.

If she were mine, I\'d wait until September (as opposed to August) to run.  I\'d be happier with six weeks into the Breeder\'s Cup rather than 9 or 10.  I wouldn\'t run her off an August \'till October layoff for all the marbles.  I\'m all for spacing, but I think you run the risk she\'s short coming off a 9 week layoff.  JMHO.

This morning.  There are threads on the Pace Advantage board.  

I am sure with your sources you can find out more than I did.

No names from me but just look at a certain trainer\'s stats at MTH.   I\'ve heard blood was drawn from every horse in the trainer\'s barn, but that I cannot confirm yet.

Is it possible, even likely that they institute a whole battery of tests and the offenders just find something else they are not testing for?

Every little bit of testing helps but there are still some ridiculous winning %\'s in jurisdictions where they are testing (places like steroid free PA).  We have come a long way from the days of \"elephant juice\" and OSB.