Once again thank you for the holiday offer. Hopefully everyone can cash this weekend. In looking at the Full Card files for LRL and FG, it appears as though some other product then the \"Full Sheet\" was uploaded. I know I have the right section since I also downloaded other cards and they appeared to be in order. Once again, thanks for the gift.
This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.
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#2
Ask the Experts / Laurel Tourney
November 01, 2002, 12:44:41 AM
Any TGers going to be at the small tournament at beautiful Laurel Park on Saturday? Same format as the Del Park tourney, just scaled down.
#3
Ask the Experts / BC F&M Turf - My View
October 22, 2002, 11:54:32 PM
We return to the scene of the crime of last years BC...Banks Hill going off at 6-1 after an impressive European campaign. Can she defend her title? Let\'s see...
Banks Hill - Unlike all but one of her European starts she gets the 10 furlongs she seemingly wants to have. After an impressive summer campaign (Losing to The Rock, Grandera and Best Of The Bests is nothing to sneeze at), one has to wonder if the Yellow Ribbon was a reaction to the races and short timed shipping or if she didn\'t care for the pavement like Santa Anita turf. The trip didn\'t help matters. Not sure what kind of \"figures\" she\'s going to receive for this years races, but her last is cause for a little bit of concern. Only 3 weeks rest, another almost cross-continental flight and several horses that look like her equal or superior? Have to try and beat her.
Chopinina - The move to Mr. Fehr\'s barn seemed to help this lady out quite a bit, making new tops with almost every start. (Anybody know ANYTHING about Fehr?) However she may have to improve yet again, about another 1-2 points if she wants to win this one. Might make an early lead as Islington and Kazzia looks like the only other speed threats and should save ground regardless of PP. Nice 2nd time Lasix for filly angle last out in the Atto Mile.
Dublino - Get a rather large weight concession of 1 point. I like the spacing and I like the short, but nice line. De Seroux has been on fire lately and this could very well be my key in a race filled with big names. Will be amongst the bigger prices. Although she is getting A LOT of attention out in speed figure world...
Golden Apples - One has to wonder what the effects of the last three will be, especially coming in off of 21 days rest. Note that she bore in last out. I don\'t like the fact that she still regressed off of the new top given the rest she was allowed before the Yellow Ribbon. I could see her backing up yet another point. At her prospective price, and somewhat iffy line, she could be worth playing against in the win slot.
Gossamer - Just behind The Rock and Banks Hill last out. You would think the distance was a concern, but the breeding says yes to the 10 panels. The question is the going. Seems to like a somewhat softer surface which won\'t be the case on Saturday. Hard to back with confidence.
Irresistible Jewel - Another of the many 3 year old Euros. Shipping off of the Arc undercard one has to wonder it\'s effects. Has run a couple of smart ones, but she appears to be a cut below the top European runners here.
Islington - Like the firm ground. Ran a BIG race in the Arc. Once again the question remains...what are the effects. If memory serves me correctly, haven\'t Arc day runners generally done poorly in the BC? However with the exception of her Oaks run over the bogs of Epsom, she\'s done little wrong and appears to be amongst the contenders.
Kazzia - Another who gets the weight allowance. Ran a very impressive Flower Bowl and if she improves off of that, she\'s right there when the photo is taken on the line. Can\'t fault her for much...
Owsley - She freaked in her last at CD. A product of the race day drug \"rules\" in Kentucky? Perhaps. Should bounce appropriately.
Riskaverse - Just declared \"good to go\" after latest work today. As for the line, nice forging line, but the 1 1/2 point top combined with the short rest scares me a bit, even with the 5 pound break. Maybe a piece.
Starine - Very dangerous and impressive line. But the question always remains, \"What about the ground loss?\" Almost always wide, thereby inflating her figures relative to her finish position. Should run 2 and change, but with the weights and the ground loss, victory is shaky at best.
Turtle Bow - Tough read. Nice season overseas, and OK North American debut. Will have to move forward a bit, and with the spacing should have time to do so. Another amongst the 3 year old contenders.
Voodoo Dancer - Much like Starrine, one who\'s numbers look better than the finishes due to ground loss in both turns. I figure her to run a 3, but with the weights and ground loss, it could be a lost cause.
Zenda - Ran a big one in the Coronation Stakes, and backed it up with a nice run in the QE II. But now off of 14 days rest isn\'t the time for a 3 year old filly to improve. Nice, but probably not nice enough here.
As you can see, I am really big on the 3 year olds here. They can run the same figures as their elders, and they get the weight. As for who I\'m keying, it\'s going to be Dublino. I love the spacing, like the connections and the price will be JUICY. Maybe a Dublino/Other 3 yo\'s/ALL triple? In a race as close as this one appears to be, price dictates the play.
Banks Hill - Unlike all but one of her European starts she gets the 10 furlongs she seemingly wants to have. After an impressive summer campaign (Losing to The Rock, Grandera and Best Of The Bests is nothing to sneeze at), one has to wonder if the Yellow Ribbon was a reaction to the races and short timed shipping or if she didn\'t care for the pavement like Santa Anita turf. The trip didn\'t help matters. Not sure what kind of \"figures\" she\'s going to receive for this years races, but her last is cause for a little bit of concern. Only 3 weeks rest, another almost cross-continental flight and several horses that look like her equal or superior? Have to try and beat her.
Chopinina - The move to Mr. Fehr\'s barn seemed to help this lady out quite a bit, making new tops with almost every start. (Anybody know ANYTHING about Fehr?) However she may have to improve yet again, about another 1-2 points if she wants to win this one. Might make an early lead as Islington and Kazzia looks like the only other speed threats and should save ground regardless of PP. Nice 2nd time Lasix for filly angle last out in the Atto Mile.
Dublino - Get a rather large weight concession of 1 point. I like the spacing and I like the short, but nice line. De Seroux has been on fire lately and this could very well be my key in a race filled with big names. Will be amongst the bigger prices. Although she is getting A LOT of attention out in speed figure world...
Golden Apples - One has to wonder what the effects of the last three will be, especially coming in off of 21 days rest. Note that she bore in last out. I don\'t like the fact that she still regressed off of the new top given the rest she was allowed before the Yellow Ribbon. I could see her backing up yet another point. At her prospective price, and somewhat iffy line, she could be worth playing against in the win slot.
Gossamer - Just behind The Rock and Banks Hill last out. You would think the distance was a concern, but the breeding says yes to the 10 panels. The question is the going. Seems to like a somewhat softer surface which won\'t be the case on Saturday. Hard to back with confidence.
Irresistible Jewel - Another of the many 3 year old Euros. Shipping off of the Arc undercard one has to wonder it\'s effects. Has run a couple of smart ones, but she appears to be a cut below the top European runners here.
Islington - Like the firm ground. Ran a BIG race in the Arc. Once again the question remains...what are the effects. If memory serves me correctly, haven\'t Arc day runners generally done poorly in the BC? However with the exception of her Oaks run over the bogs of Epsom, she\'s done little wrong and appears to be amongst the contenders.
Kazzia - Another who gets the weight allowance. Ran a very impressive Flower Bowl and if she improves off of that, she\'s right there when the photo is taken on the line. Can\'t fault her for much...
Owsley - She freaked in her last at CD. A product of the race day drug \"rules\" in Kentucky? Perhaps. Should bounce appropriately.
Riskaverse - Just declared \"good to go\" after latest work today. As for the line, nice forging line, but the 1 1/2 point top combined with the short rest scares me a bit, even with the 5 pound break. Maybe a piece.
Starine - Very dangerous and impressive line. But the question always remains, \"What about the ground loss?\" Almost always wide, thereby inflating her figures relative to her finish position. Should run 2 and change, but with the weights and the ground loss, victory is shaky at best.
Turtle Bow - Tough read. Nice season overseas, and OK North American debut. Will have to move forward a bit, and with the spacing should have time to do so. Another amongst the 3 year old contenders.
Voodoo Dancer - Much like Starrine, one who\'s numbers look better than the finishes due to ground loss in both turns. I figure her to run a 3, but with the weights and ground loss, it could be a lost cause.
Zenda - Ran a big one in the Coronation Stakes, and backed it up with a nice run in the QE II. But now off of 14 days rest isn\'t the time for a 3 year old filly to improve. Nice, but probably not nice enough here.
As you can see, I am really big on the 3 year olds here. They can run the same figures as their elders, and they get the weight. As for who I\'m keying, it\'s going to be Dublino. I love the spacing, like the connections and the price will be JUICY. Maybe a Dublino/Other 3 yo\'s/ALL triple? In a race as close as this one appears to be, price dictates the play.
#4
Ask the Experts / Re: BC Sprint - My View
October 22, 2002, 07:25:31 PM
The HUGE negatives were the numbers themselves, not a negative as in attributes (although this line is negative in my mind). They weren\'t -1/2 or -1, they were monster negative numbers, the likes of which I haven\'t seen put together in the manner in which he has, which I will say spells the end of the line for O.
This is really just a race to watch for me given my bad sprint handicapping. Hopefully they all cross the wire safely.
This is really just a race to watch for me given my bad sprint handicapping. Hopefully they all cross the wire safely.
#5
Ask the Experts / BC Sprint - My View
October 21, 2002, 11:28:30 PM
I\'m not sure if I\'ve ever cashed a ticket in this silly race, so take my reads with a bucket full of salt. Two turn and two turn grass races are my gig. These horses freaking in and out to negative numbers just confuses the hell out of me. The question is, \"Who can run a negative number today?\" In sheet order...
Bonapaw - Will we see him in a a few years as the 2004 version of Bet On Sunshine. Old boy keeps rolling. But I have my doubts. This one has normally reacted rather adversly in the past to negative number, usually to the 2+ range. In his last three forms, in which he\'s popped many negative figures, there has been a big (relative) bounce somewhere. This has yet to happen in the latest cycle. He \"bounced\" to a 0 last out. Was it enough of a recover figure for him? I\'m going to say no and cross my fingers.
Carson Hollow - Slowly developing sort who has done nothing wrong and why not take a shot with the weight allowance? Could improve with the paired tops, but the liklihood seems slim, and even with the weights looks like a minor threat to win.
Crafty C.T. - Can someone say HYPE? On short rest he\'s unlikely to break through to \"the other (negative) side. One positive - he doesn\'t need to take his track with him.
Day Trader - The spacing on this 3 year old colt scares me a bit. 3 big races in 6 weeks time. Given that he\'d have to improve to win, I find it highly unlikely that he could. Looks to be circling out of form.
Disturbingthepeace - Can the skein be continued? Possibly. Will I be in his corner to find out? Probably not. I\'m pegging him for a 1, which won\'t win. If he can continue his slow maturation, could be one to look for next year if Vienna doesn\'t run him into the ground.
D\'Wildcat - May miss the race due to illness. Even if he did show, he wouldn\'t be a factor. Never the same since the Swale.
Gygistar - Possible winner OUT.
Kalookan Queen - 3 point top, 3 weeks rest, older mare? NEXT!
Kona Gold - How many horses can say 7 of their last 10 were negative? Not many that are still running. Headley has done a masterful job with the old boy. Although he might have lost a step, I think Bruce may be able to squeeze the lemon once more and coax a 0 or negative number out of him. Has run very well while fresh before.
Orientate - As I said before in a previous analysis. It used to be a negative would cause an \"X\", then two consecutive, now three. As you can see in the BC field, it takes more than one to knock out a true champion. Is this the end of the line for Oreintate? There aren\'t just negatives, but HUGE negatives. Never doubt Lukas, but at the short price he will most likely be, I\'ll be taking a stand against him. Hopefully he makes it through the race safely.
Swept Overboard - He ust have a taste for sake, because his return from his brilliant Met Mile was a tad disappointing. However I just have a gut feel that he\'s only going to run a 1 or so, putting him out of contention for the big prize.
Touch Tone - If the Werner-Durant entry had another race or two into him you could see him developing a nice line, but as it stands now you can\'t back him with any confidence to improve to be a factor, even a serious exotic factor.
Wake At Noon - The Canuck just reacts too wildly to big efforts, which his last one was. This being said, look for him to bounce back to the Great White North.
Xtra Heat - It would be a great story to see her win it. Runs her guts out every dance. The question is, is this the end of the line? You know Salzman will have her cranked for what could be his last race with her. It seems like normal sheet reading rules just don\'t apply to an animal as special as this. Have to consider. The 3 pounds is always a help.
Thunderello - I admire Scott Lake for his willingness to give him a shot, but it\'s just asking too much too soon. Can\'t expect development off a 5 point top.
My Cousin Matt - Call me crazy, but since the addition of the wraps, he\'s a new man. Could he be the crazy exotic atomic bomb if he can get back to the 1? With D\'Wildcat on the fence, it\'s possible he could get in.
Maybe I\'m missing the boat here, but the logical contenders seem to be Kona Gold, Xtra Heat and possibly Swept Overboard and Disturbingthepeace, making this a race to watch for me. Might have to make a small play using My Cousin Matt in the exotic pools just for action. But you won\'t see much of my money in this race.
Bonapaw - Will we see him in a a few years as the 2004 version of Bet On Sunshine. Old boy keeps rolling. But I have my doubts. This one has normally reacted rather adversly in the past to negative number, usually to the 2+ range. In his last three forms, in which he\'s popped many negative figures, there has been a big (relative) bounce somewhere. This has yet to happen in the latest cycle. He \"bounced\" to a 0 last out. Was it enough of a recover figure for him? I\'m going to say no and cross my fingers.
Carson Hollow - Slowly developing sort who has done nothing wrong and why not take a shot with the weight allowance? Could improve with the paired tops, but the liklihood seems slim, and even with the weights looks like a minor threat to win.
Crafty C.T. - Can someone say HYPE? On short rest he\'s unlikely to break through to \"the other (negative) side. One positive - he doesn\'t need to take his track with him.
Day Trader - The spacing on this 3 year old colt scares me a bit. 3 big races in 6 weeks time. Given that he\'d have to improve to win, I find it highly unlikely that he could. Looks to be circling out of form.
Disturbingthepeace - Can the skein be continued? Possibly. Will I be in his corner to find out? Probably not. I\'m pegging him for a 1, which won\'t win. If he can continue his slow maturation, could be one to look for next year if Vienna doesn\'t run him into the ground.
D\'Wildcat - May miss the race due to illness. Even if he did show, he wouldn\'t be a factor. Never the same since the Swale.
Gygistar - Possible winner OUT.
Kalookan Queen - 3 point top, 3 weeks rest, older mare? NEXT!
Kona Gold - How many horses can say 7 of their last 10 were negative? Not many that are still running. Headley has done a masterful job with the old boy. Although he might have lost a step, I think Bruce may be able to squeeze the lemon once more and coax a 0 or negative number out of him. Has run very well while fresh before.
Orientate - As I said before in a previous analysis. It used to be a negative would cause an \"X\", then two consecutive, now three. As you can see in the BC field, it takes more than one to knock out a true champion. Is this the end of the line for Oreintate? There aren\'t just negatives, but HUGE negatives. Never doubt Lukas, but at the short price he will most likely be, I\'ll be taking a stand against him. Hopefully he makes it through the race safely.
Swept Overboard - He ust have a taste for sake, because his return from his brilliant Met Mile was a tad disappointing. However I just have a gut feel that he\'s only going to run a 1 or so, putting him out of contention for the big prize.
Touch Tone - If the Werner-Durant entry had another race or two into him you could see him developing a nice line, but as it stands now you can\'t back him with any confidence to improve to be a factor, even a serious exotic factor.
Wake At Noon - The Canuck just reacts too wildly to big efforts, which his last one was. This being said, look for him to bounce back to the Great White North.
Xtra Heat - It would be a great story to see her win it. Runs her guts out every dance. The question is, is this the end of the line? You know Salzman will have her cranked for what could be his last race with her. It seems like normal sheet reading rules just don\'t apply to an animal as special as this. Have to consider. The 3 pounds is always a help.
Thunderello - I admire Scott Lake for his willingness to give him a shot, but it\'s just asking too much too soon. Can\'t expect development off a 5 point top.
My Cousin Matt - Call me crazy, but since the addition of the wraps, he\'s a new man. Could he be the crazy exotic atomic bomb if he can get back to the 1? With D\'Wildcat on the fence, it\'s possible he could get in.
Maybe I\'m missing the boat here, but the logical contenders seem to be Kona Gold, Xtra Heat and possibly Swept Overboard and Disturbingthepeace, making this a race to watch for me. Might have to make a small play using My Cousin Matt in the exotic pools just for action. But you won\'t see much of my money in this race.
#6
Ask the Experts / Re: BC Mile - My View
October 21, 2002, 10:54:34 PM
While the 3 yo filly may be a party crasher for the exotics, I can\'t see her being a threat to win the race.
If ROG goes ends up being Classic bound, then Good Journey is my Mile Key.
As for the Distaff, I think the price on Mandy\'s Gold will make her a possible play, albeit small.
Mall...I come from the land of the ice and snow. Seemed appropriate in the midst of rumors of a Zeppelin reunion. Well, maybe not. I\'m from the Mid-Atlantic, generally a lurker when it comes to discussions of figure making, etc. Enjoyed the most profitable winter ever, enjoyeing a not so profitable spring and summer with many trips up to Belmont. Just have to get ready to deal with some major tax wrangling. I haven\'t been playing too much due to concentrating on helping with our families horse stable.
Later tonight...The Sprint. Thanks for the compliments and let\'s keep the conversations going.
If ROG goes ends up being Classic bound, then Good Journey is my Mile Key.
As for the Distaff, I think the price on Mandy\'s Gold will make her a possible play, albeit small.
Mall...I come from the land of the ice and snow. Seemed appropriate in the midst of rumors of a Zeppelin reunion. Well, maybe not. I\'m from the Mid-Atlantic, generally a lurker when it comes to discussions of figure making, etc. Enjoyed the most profitable winter ever, enjoyeing a not so profitable spring and summer with many trips up to Belmont. Just have to get ready to deal with some major tax wrangling. I haven\'t been playing too much due to concentrating on helping with our families horse stable.
Later tonight...The Sprint. Thanks for the compliments and let\'s keep the conversations going.
#7
Ask the Experts / BC Mile - My View
October 20, 2002, 08:13:51 PM
This race hasn\'t exactly been kind to me over the year, with my only score coming on Spinning World, albeit at 4-1 in the Bally\'s Future Book only weeks before the Cup. This year looks as tough as any. Here\'s my thoughts in sheet order...
Aldebaran - Obviously Frankel & Co. have gotten tired of being the bridesmaid and returns this one to the lawn. Has the improvement this year been the switch to dirt and shortening up, or a year of physical maturation? I\'m siding with the earlier. Last year turf tries were uninspiring, however he has turned the corner this year. Even if he takes to the turf again, I can\'t see him running any better than a 1 here. Ground loss seems likely no matter what the post.
Beat Hollow - The knock on him is his inability to go 8 panels. I\'m not too positive on his line coming in. With the short rest on which he\'s only raced once, plus the pairing of tops I expect him to regress slightly to about a 2, and therefore burn a lot of American greenbacks.
Boston Common - Not sure what Englander and Co. have cooked up here. Not confident enough to tackle the Sprint race, so they try him on the turf with which the owner is obsessed with. After being turned over to one of his more money trainers in Pino, this one flourished after reacting to the big top in his frist race at DEL in 2002. The switch to Lake is also a bit odd, going to have to dig to find out the answer to that one. I don\'t like Boston Harbor\'s going onto the turf or stretching out, and for those reasons, I can\'t see him being a factor in this race.
Del Mar Show - Another horse trying to turn back to a flat mile. Reacted as expected off of the paired tops in the summer. I can\'t see him improving enough to even be a remote factor. Ground loss problems for him as well.
Domedriver - Useful horse for the Niarchos family. Always in the hunt, but nothing really pops out to me on paper. He did lose to Banks Hill by less than 2 this year, but I\'m not too keen on her line this year either. His style of running from the back of the field will most likely be a problem, although the last few running have seen winners come from the clouds. Yet to see a left handed turn. I\'ll pass on him for the win slot.
Forbidden Apple - The old boy comes back for more. Off of his last top, with short rest, I have to think that he will react ever so slightly. Enough to put him out of the cash.
Good Journey - Typical So. Cal. miler. Very few races, well spaced. Seems dangerous. Given what he\'s done this year, plus the fact he\'s fresh and has good spacing coming into this one, he could be ready to equal his top at CD and be a major player here. Should be a nice price on the board with FA, BH and the Euro taking a lot of money.
Gossamer - Seems to like the softer going. Ran right with The Rock and Banks Hill, but given the likelihood of firm ground at AP, I\'ll take a stand against her.
Hawk Wing - Going for the big money...
Landseer - Hard to draw a line from this one off of one figure. Would have to improve to win this one. Seems to relish the firm footing, was only a little more than a length off of The Rock at Ascot this year. Seems to be able to run any kind of style, and could be dangerous here.
Medecis - Hasn\'t done much wrong yet. Wasn\'t disgraced in the Prix Jacques le Marios. Last was a good blow out for the stretch out to a mile and could be a factor here.
Rock of Gilbraltar - The Mile goes through him, plain and simple. Will get the firm ground he wants and it\'s his to lose. Only question is whether the left hand turn will confuse him. But with a horse of his caliber, I think the answer will be no.
The Tin Man - Is just too slow to be a factor here. Nothing pointing to an explosive move. Masterful ride by Smith won him the Hirsch.
Touch Of The Blues - Off of the big top, combined with short rest, looks to bounce hard here. He did so last year and has this year for the most part as well and October 26th will be no different.
Volponi - Most likely going to the Classic If he runs here, could be an exotics factor, although the last out could hurt those chances. Don\'t expect to see him here.
Zenda - Even if she gets in is just too slow.
Nuclear Debate - Too slow. Probably won\'t draw in.
Dress To Thrill - Has to draw in. I\'ll take a shot against a 3 year old filly.
Green Fee - Too slow.
Chopinina - Too slow.
North East Bound - Too slow.
D\'Wildcat - Too slow.
One Won One - Now I do not know thing one (Won, One) about Miss Morgan, but she has run thsi 8 year old on no days rest twice this year. I thought maybe the TG sheet was a mistake, but no mistake it was. Are the Milch\'s that hard up for the cash they need to run him every day?
Thunderello - Goes to the Sprint.
As I said, all things BC Mile, much like the Med. Sea, go by the Rock Of Gibraltar. Seems to be a legitimate Euro miler, unlike ghosts of the past such as Arazi, Mark of Esteem, Charnwood Forest, Desert Prince to name a few. If I had to play the race today, I would be looking to Good Journey. Figures to be a price and I like his line more than anyone elses. Is just flat out faster than the rest of the U.S. contingent.
Aldebaran - Obviously Frankel & Co. have gotten tired of being the bridesmaid and returns this one to the lawn. Has the improvement this year been the switch to dirt and shortening up, or a year of physical maturation? I\'m siding with the earlier. Last year turf tries were uninspiring, however he has turned the corner this year. Even if he takes to the turf again, I can\'t see him running any better than a 1 here. Ground loss seems likely no matter what the post.
Beat Hollow - The knock on him is his inability to go 8 panels. I\'m not too positive on his line coming in. With the short rest on which he\'s only raced once, plus the pairing of tops I expect him to regress slightly to about a 2, and therefore burn a lot of American greenbacks.
Boston Common - Not sure what Englander and Co. have cooked up here. Not confident enough to tackle the Sprint race, so they try him on the turf with which the owner is obsessed with. After being turned over to one of his more money trainers in Pino, this one flourished after reacting to the big top in his frist race at DEL in 2002. The switch to Lake is also a bit odd, going to have to dig to find out the answer to that one. I don\'t like Boston Harbor\'s going onto the turf or stretching out, and for those reasons, I can\'t see him being a factor in this race.
Del Mar Show - Another horse trying to turn back to a flat mile. Reacted as expected off of the paired tops in the summer. I can\'t see him improving enough to even be a remote factor. Ground loss problems for him as well.
Domedriver - Useful horse for the Niarchos family. Always in the hunt, but nothing really pops out to me on paper. He did lose to Banks Hill by less than 2 this year, but I\'m not too keen on her line this year either. His style of running from the back of the field will most likely be a problem, although the last few running have seen winners come from the clouds. Yet to see a left handed turn. I\'ll pass on him for the win slot.
Forbidden Apple - The old boy comes back for more. Off of his last top, with short rest, I have to think that he will react ever so slightly. Enough to put him out of the cash.
Good Journey - Typical So. Cal. miler. Very few races, well spaced. Seems dangerous. Given what he\'s done this year, plus the fact he\'s fresh and has good spacing coming into this one, he could be ready to equal his top at CD and be a major player here. Should be a nice price on the board with FA, BH and the Euro taking a lot of money.
Gossamer - Seems to like the softer going. Ran right with The Rock and Banks Hill, but given the likelihood of firm ground at AP, I\'ll take a stand against her.
Hawk Wing - Going for the big money...
Landseer - Hard to draw a line from this one off of one figure. Would have to improve to win this one. Seems to relish the firm footing, was only a little more than a length off of The Rock at Ascot this year. Seems to be able to run any kind of style, and could be dangerous here.
Medecis - Hasn\'t done much wrong yet. Wasn\'t disgraced in the Prix Jacques le Marios. Last was a good blow out for the stretch out to a mile and could be a factor here.
Rock of Gilbraltar - The Mile goes through him, plain and simple. Will get the firm ground he wants and it\'s his to lose. Only question is whether the left hand turn will confuse him. But with a horse of his caliber, I think the answer will be no.
The Tin Man - Is just too slow to be a factor here. Nothing pointing to an explosive move. Masterful ride by Smith won him the Hirsch.
Touch Of The Blues - Off of the big top, combined with short rest, looks to bounce hard here. He did so last year and has this year for the most part as well and October 26th will be no different.
Volponi - Most likely going to the Classic If he runs here, could be an exotics factor, although the last out could hurt those chances. Don\'t expect to see him here.
Zenda - Even if she gets in is just too slow.
Nuclear Debate - Too slow. Probably won\'t draw in.
Dress To Thrill - Has to draw in. I\'ll take a shot against a 3 year old filly.
Green Fee - Too slow.
Chopinina - Too slow.
North East Bound - Too slow.
D\'Wildcat - Too slow.
One Won One - Now I do not know thing one (Won, One) about Miss Morgan, but she has run thsi 8 year old on no days rest twice this year. I thought maybe the TG sheet was a mistake, but no mistake it was. Are the Milch\'s that hard up for the cash they need to run him every day?
Thunderello - Goes to the Sprint.
As I said, all things BC Mile, much like the Med. Sea, go by the Rock Of Gibraltar. Seems to be a legitimate Euro miler, unlike ghosts of the past such as Arazi, Mark of Esteem, Charnwood Forest, Desert Prince to name a few. If I had to play the race today, I would be looking to Good Journey. Figures to be a price and I like his line more than anyone elses. Is just flat out faster than the rest of the U.S. contingent.
#8
Ask the Experts / BC Distaff - My View
October 20, 2002, 02:22:35 AM
Every day I\'m going to post my takes on each race of the BC card, save the Juvenile Fillies. The Juvenile would also be out, but unfortunately it\'s part of the Pick 4. These are going to be pattern reads only. Plays will only be known when the PP\'s are drawn and the odds go up. Unlike those on the competitors board, I\'m not afraid to \"hurt my price\" at the windows...The pool is plenty deep on days like these. Plenty of room to wade.
The BC Distaff has actually been the most successful race for me over the years, scoring with Jewel Princess (OK, not a great price), Spain and Unbridled Elaine. This years running appears to be amongst the most competitive I can remember. Here\'s my thoughts in alphabetical order...
Azeri - Perhaps going to be the shortest price on BC day, maybe moreso than Storm Flag Flying given the difference in field size. As a sheets player, one\'s always looking to beat the chalk. This is no different. She\'s done nothing wrong to this point and looks to replicate her last two efforts. However there are several in here that are just as fast, if not faster and looks VERY vulnerable.
Farda Amiga - Impressive last two since leaving So. Cal., but one wonders if she can improve enough to battle with these, even with the weigh concession. I look for her to run her top again, not break through and thus be out of the picture.
Imperial Gesture - Sheets like her\'s and others are going to be the broken record of this race. It used to be that 1 negative number would result in an \"X\", then 2, now it\'s even 3 or more. Granted it\'s not 3 consecutive, but one has to wonder if the cumulative effects of these races for a 3 year old filly plus the spacing of these efforts is finally going to catch up to her. While a bouncy sort early in her career, she obviously learned a lot over at Al Quoz. I\'m going to lean towards her finally reaching the end of the line after 3 huge races and regresses slightly, however the 4 pound weight break will help.
Mandy\'s Gold - Another that you wonder about given her negative numbers. Although she has run 2 monster efforts at Delaware and Saratoga, she bounced as you\'d expect, but came right back to running when stretched out, which remains the biggest question. I like the face that she got back to where she once was, but ground loss could be a concern for her. I think she has a good shot at repeating her last two, which makes her a player in this field and given the possible price, could be a key in the race for the exotics.
Starrer - Thanks for playing, here\'s your partying gifts.
Summer Colony - This one is much like Mandy\'s Gold, but figures to be much shorter on the toteboard. Big summer efforts, bounced at Delaware, then back to business at the Spa, followed by a regression in the Beldame. Although she did get off to a slow start which compromised her chances I don\'t like the race she ran last out. Perfect spacing given her campaign until then, and still came out a bit flat. She could easily come back to form and be a big factor here, but given the short rest which she doesn\'t normally run on, I think she will repeat her last figure, or back up slightly, which would put her out of contention.
Take Charge Lady - Somewhat interesting. Ran a new top two back off of the long layoff, then regressed slightly. A reaction to the big effort? Possibly. Hard to read. Has some physical problems earlier this year and that plus her likely short odds are scaring me away from her. I think she will run another 0, but will most likely be too short on the board for comfort.
Two Item Limit - Make sure Starrer didn\'t take all the gifts.
As it\'s shaping out right now, Mandy\'s Gold is most likely my \"key\" for the race. She\'s certain to be a square price and hopefully can draw a favorable inside to middle post, although with the small field, ground loss may be less of a factor.
Let me know what you\'re thinking. It\'s verty well possible that at 2:15 AM EST that I\'m missing something...
The BC Distaff has actually been the most successful race for me over the years, scoring with Jewel Princess (OK, not a great price), Spain and Unbridled Elaine. This years running appears to be amongst the most competitive I can remember. Here\'s my thoughts in alphabetical order...
Azeri - Perhaps going to be the shortest price on BC day, maybe moreso than Storm Flag Flying given the difference in field size. As a sheets player, one\'s always looking to beat the chalk. This is no different. She\'s done nothing wrong to this point and looks to replicate her last two efforts. However there are several in here that are just as fast, if not faster and looks VERY vulnerable.
Farda Amiga - Impressive last two since leaving So. Cal., but one wonders if she can improve enough to battle with these, even with the weigh concession. I look for her to run her top again, not break through and thus be out of the picture.
Imperial Gesture - Sheets like her\'s and others are going to be the broken record of this race. It used to be that 1 negative number would result in an \"X\", then 2, now it\'s even 3 or more. Granted it\'s not 3 consecutive, but one has to wonder if the cumulative effects of these races for a 3 year old filly plus the spacing of these efforts is finally going to catch up to her. While a bouncy sort early in her career, she obviously learned a lot over at Al Quoz. I\'m going to lean towards her finally reaching the end of the line after 3 huge races and regresses slightly, however the 4 pound weight break will help.
Mandy\'s Gold - Another that you wonder about given her negative numbers. Although she has run 2 monster efforts at Delaware and Saratoga, she bounced as you\'d expect, but came right back to running when stretched out, which remains the biggest question. I like the face that she got back to where she once was, but ground loss could be a concern for her. I think she has a good shot at repeating her last two, which makes her a player in this field and given the possible price, could be a key in the race for the exotics.
Starrer - Thanks for playing, here\'s your partying gifts.
Summer Colony - This one is much like Mandy\'s Gold, but figures to be much shorter on the toteboard. Big summer efforts, bounced at Delaware, then back to business at the Spa, followed by a regression in the Beldame. Although she did get off to a slow start which compromised her chances I don\'t like the race she ran last out. Perfect spacing given her campaign until then, and still came out a bit flat. She could easily come back to form and be a big factor here, but given the short rest which she doesn\'t normally run on, I think she will repeat her last figure, or back up slightly, which would put her out of contention.
Take Charge Lady - Somewhat interesting. Ran a new top two back off of the long layoff, then regressed slightly. A reaction to the big effort? Possibly. Hard to read. Has some physical problems earlier this year and that plus her likely short odds are scaring me away from her. I think she will run another 0, but will most likely be too short on the board for comfort.
Two Item Limit - Make sure Starrer didn\'t take all the gifts.
As it\'s shaping out right now, Mandy\'s Gold is most likely my \"key\" for the race. She\'s certain to be a square price and hopefully can draw a favorable inside to middle post, although with the small field, ground loss may be less of a factor.
Let me know what you\'re thinking. It\'s verty well possible that at 2:15 AM EST that I\'m missing something...
#9
Ask the Experts / San Juan Capristrano
April 21, 2002, 10:36:19 AM
I like turf races. I like long races. Therefore it should come as no surprise that the San Juan Capistrano Handicap is one of my favorite races of the year. My thoughts in post position order...
1. Kerrygold - 2 races in 15 days coming off of paired tops separated by only 21 days. I take the view that this one will regress a couple of points.
2. Continental Red - Nice horse who in the summer of 2001 figured out how the game was played. Topped in first start at DMR but never got back to those figures until this year. At a short price and the highweight, this is a horse I\'ll try to beat as it\'s only now that he\'s been able to repeat those tops efforts.
3. Dispersed Reward - After being taken under by Vladimir Cerin, this young filly is a slowly improving sort. Equaled 3yo top first out as a 4yo, ran a new top as expected, bounced to just underneath previous top and ran back to pair her top last out. Short rest worried me, but this one could have a small forward move in her. At the weight (if Sorenson can make it) and at the price, she could make the exotics interesting even if she doesn\'t win the race. Normally I don\'t look at jockeys too much when handicapping a race, but the prospect of Danny Sorenson winning a Grade I race is scary to me. Must be because he can make weight.
4. Cagney - Looks the part of a favorite. Nice spacing for this one. In terms of figures he looks as though the disasterous Tokyo trip is behind him and is fully recovered. Will be right in the thick of things. Can\'t see him running off the board.
5. Keemoon - Seems to be the \"wise-guys\" horse. I do not like her myself. Tailed off last year after running a new top at KEE. Equaled that top first out this year. I think she will regress slightly. At the price which figures to be a bit low given her run last out and the additional distance, I\'ll look elsewhere for the win money.
6. Ringaskiddy - Looks as though this horse is circling out of a positive cycle and will most likely not be a factor in today\'s race.
7. Speedy Pick - This horse has gone from breaking his maiden last June to running in a Grade I event in April. Turf seems to be this ones game, as evident in his San Luis Rey run. His full brother Hugh Hefner also seems to like it as well. After pairing new tops on his first two turf efforts, he moved forward again in the SLR. I think with the spacing and the fact that he is a lightly raced sort that he stands a good chance to move forward yet again. Looks to be the lone speed and should get the best trip possible. Obvious question is can he get the distance. At the price, the trip, and the pattern I guess I\'ll be willing to pay to find out.
8. Soul Warrior - Barry Abrams musn\'t like this horse very much. 4th race in just over a month, this time going 1 3/4 miles. He could mix things up in the triples if he can manage to keep cranking out the numbers he\'s run in the past. But given the campaign so far and the grueling nature of this race, I\'ll say he folds when the real running starts.
9. Staging Post - Don\'t know what to make of this one. If he runs to his seasonal debut, he\'s right there. I think that he will run somewhere in between the two efforts. Likely to be overbet with Frankel/Desormeaux, I\'ll take a stand against.
10. Chelsea Barracks - Horse ran a new top last out after two races removed from a 1 1/2 year vacation. That being said, I\'ll pen him as bouncing off that effort, even with the spacing entering the race and the weights. Could still make the triples interesting.
Certainly looks like a wide open affair to me. I\'m leaning towards Speedy Pick as my key horse in this race over Dispersed Reward, Cagney, and Chelsea Barracks. However, expect that ALL button to be used as well.
Sorry for the length of this post, but like I said at the top, this is one of my favorite races of the year.
Good luck.
1. Kerrygold - 2 races in 15 days coming off of paired tops separated by only 21 days. I take the view that this one will regress a couple of points.
2. Continental Red - Nice horse who in the summer of 2001 figured out how the game was played. Topped in first start at DMR but never got back to those figures until this year. At a short price and the highweight, this is a horse I\'ll try to beat as it\'s only now that he\'s been able to repeat those tops efforts.
3. Dispersed Reward - After being taken under by Vladimir Cerin, this young filly is a slowly improving sort. Equaled 3yo top first out as a 4yo, ran a new top as expected, bounced to just underneath previous top and ran back to pair her top last out. Short rest worried me, but this one could have a small forward move in her. At the weight (if Sorenson can make it) and at the price, she could make the exotics interesting even if she doesn\'t win the race. Normally I don\'t look at jockeys too much when handicapping a race, but the prospect of Danny Sorenson winning a Grade I race is scary to me. Must be because he can make weight.
4. Cagney - Looks the part of a favorite. Nice spacing for this one. In terms of figures he looks as though the disasterous Tokyo trip is behind him and is fully recovered. Will be right in the thick of things. Can\'t see him running off the board.
5. Keemoon - Seems to be the \"wise-guys\" horse. I do not like her myself. Tailed off last year after running a new top at KEE. Equaled that top first out this year. I think she will regress slightly. At the price which figures to be a bit low given her run last out and the additional distance, I\'ll look elsewhere for the win money.
6. Ringaskiddy - Looks as though this horse is circling out of a positive cycle and will most likely not be a factor in today\'s race.
7. Speedy Pick - This horse has gone from breaking his maiden last June to running in a Grade I event in April. Turf seems to be this ones game, as evident in his San Luis Rey run. His full brother Hugh Hefner also seems to like it as well. After pairing new tops on his first two turf efforts, he moved forward again in the SLR. I think with the spacing and the fact that he is a lightly raced sort that he stands a good chance to move forward yet again. Looks to be the lone speed and should get the best trip possible. Obvious question is can he get the distance. At the price, the trip, and the pattern I guess I\'ll be willing to pay to find out.
8. Soul Warrior - Barry Abrams musn\'t like this horse very much. 4th race in just over a month, this time going 1 3/4 miles. He could mix things up in the triples if he can manage to keep cranking out the numbers he\'s run in the past. But given the campaign so far and the grueling nature of this race, I\'ll say he folds when the real running starts.
9. Staging Post - Don\'t know what to make of this one. If he runs to his seasonal debut, he\'s right there. I think that he will run somewhere in between the two efforts. Likely to be overbet with Frankel/Desormeaux, I\'ll take a stand against.
10. Chelsea Barracks - Horse ran a new top last out after two races removed from a 1 1/2 year vacation. That being said, I\'ll pen him as bouncing off that effort, even with the spacing entering the race and the weights. Could still make the triples interesting.
Certainly looks like a wide open affair to me. I\'m leaning towards Speedy Pick as my key horse in this race over Dispersed Reward, Cagney, and Chelsea Barracks. However, expect that ALL button to be used as well.
Sorry for the length of this post, but like I said at the top, this is one of my favorite races of the year.
Good luck.
#10
Ask the Experts / TG on the Turf
March 24, 2002, 08:23:08 PM
Once again the TG figured prove successful on the turf. Case in point was today\'s Explosive Bid Handicap at the Fair Grounds. My key in the race was Even The Score. Looked as good if not better than most in this bunch and with a good chance (or so I thought) of improving on his last few races which would make his a legitimate threat to win the race. Hap figured to be a touch slower and a very vulnerable highweight. Beat Hollow was a horse I\'ll play against every time. The ship, a horse with some talent but loaded with physical ailments, a large high quality field. So the race was ripe for the picking.
I went off the deep end playing ETS in retrospect. Since I didn\'t have sheets for races 7 or 10, I took ALL in both races, singled ETS in the 8th, and singled Tee Cat in the 9th. I had exactas over and under 6 horses, and a triple box keying ETS with those 6. That\'s how confident I was entering the race. Of course I wouldn\'t have done all of this had he not been 70-1.
Entering the stretch I thought I was home. But at the 3/16 mark you could see that ETS was getting leg weary and that Sarafan and Beat Hollow were closing fast. Luckily he held for third, giving me two $1 tri box tickets and a large show bet making it a very profitable day.
The Orchid at GP was a race in which the contenders were few, and Julie Jalouse was a very gettable key given her \"good ground\" turf starts in Europe. That plus the fact that Johnny Murtagh kept coming back for her was more than enough to key her. $37 exacta seemed like a juicy price to me.
These two healthy scores plus Delightful Irving-Cetewayo exacta ($53) made for a great weekend of turf racing. I wonder why I even bothered trying to outsmart those Pick 3\'s at TP on Spiral Day, although the Spiral exacta was quite nice itself.
Just wanted to thank Jerry and the boys for continuing to put out a tremendous product. Just can\'t wait to tackle my first Vegas tournament this summer. Any other tournament players out there?
I went off the deep end playing ETS in retrospect. Since I didn\'t have sheets for races 7 or 10, I took ALL in both races, singled ETS in the 8th, and singled Tee Cat in the 9th. I had exactas over and under 6 horses, and a triple box keying ETS with those 6. That\'s how confident I was entering the race. Of course I wouldn\'t have done all of this had he not been 70-1.
Entering the stretch I thought I was home. But at the 3/16 mark you could see that ETS was getting leg weary and that Sarafan and Beat Hollow were closing fast. Luckily he held for third, giving me two $1 tri box tickets and a large show bet making it a very profitable day.
The Orchid at GP was a race in which the contenders were few, and Julie Jalouse was a very gettable key given her \"good ground\" turf starts in Europe. That plus the fact that Johnny Murtagh kept coming back for her was more than enough to key her. $37 exacta seemed like a juicy price to me.
These two healthy scores plus Delightful Irving-Cetewayo exacta ($53) made for a great weekend of turf racing. I wonder why I even bothered trying to outsmart those Pick 3\'s at TP on Spiral Day, although the Spiral exacta was quite nice itself.
Just wanted to thank Jerry and the boys for continuing to put out a tremendous product. Just can\'t wait to tackle my first Vegas tournament this summer. Any other tournament players out there?
#11
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby Future Pool 2 - Perfect Drift
March 23, 2002, 03:46:04 PM
I agree that neither Harlon\'s Holiday and Request For Parole look the part, but the prices are too juicy to pass up at 40 and 60/1.
I guess sitting in the position you are in, if Johannesburg or Repent jumps up and runs a big one, so be it. Looks like all the bases are covered to me. But then again, words from a schlub like me do not line your pocket with green.
Additionally, thanks again for GREAT turf figures. Irving\'s Delightful in the Pan American was an easy single in the Pick 3\'s. VERY hittable exacta and triple. If only Macho Uno could have found even more trouble and let Hail The Cheif win. Then we\'re talking a closing Pick 3 in the few thousands I\'m guessing.
I guess sitting in the position you are in, if Johannesburg or Repent jumps up and runs a big one, so be it. Looks like all the bases are covered to me. But then again, words from a schlub like me do not line your pocket with green.
Additionally, thanks again for GREAT turf figures. Irving\'s Delightful in the Pan American was an easy single in the Pick 3\'s. VERY hittable exacta and triple. If only Macho Uno could have found even more trouble and let Hail The Cheif win. Then we\'re talking a closing Pick 3 in the few thousands I\'m guessing.
#12
Ask the Experts / Derby Future Pool 2 - Perfect Drift
March 23, 2002, 03:02:53 PM
Jerry, judging by your (or someone else\'s) comments in the ROTW analysis, it certainly seems as though I wasn\'t the only one who took an optimistic view of this one in the KD Future Pool. Please tell me that:
1. You also played him. Or someone in the office.
2. That he took his little baby step forward today at TP.
$50 @ 90-1 goes a long way.
I played some others, but they are falling by the wayside, with Blue Burner being the exception.
1. You also played him. Or someone in the office.
2. That he took his little baby step forward today at TP.
$50 @ 90-1 goes a long way.
I played some others, but they are falling by the wayside, with Blue Burner being the exception.
#13
Ask the Experts / Dubai World Cup Card
March 21, 2002, 10:26:21 PM
I hadn\'t seen Bonapaw\'s sheet since the middle part of last year since he\'s been running in so many short field races, but man is this 4 race stretch impressive. Jerry, have you ever seen a horse run 3 HUGE figures like that? Saying they are negative figures doesn\'t even do them justice.
Caller One off the bench? If not him, maybe Echo Eddie? As much as I hate to say it, I\'m afraid that Xtra Heat may get cooked in this one. How many times can Salzman and Co. keep going back to the well. I hope she comes back in good order.
Am I the only one thinking that Western Pride could be a play at a price to circle back to his San Fernando figure? Obviously the ship on short rest is the main concern. The Pick 3 seems to be rather interesting.
Caller One off the bench? If not him, maybe Echo Eddie? As much as I hate to say it, I\'m afraid that Xtra Heat may get cooked in this one. How many times can Salzman and Co. keep going back to the well. I hope she comes back in good order.
Am I the only one thinking that Western Pride could be a play at a price to circle back to his San Fernando figure? Obviously the ship on short rest is the main concern. The Pick 3 seems to be rather interesting.
#14
Ask the Experts / Bally's Summer Stakes
March 20, 2002, 01:29:33 PM
Anyone here have any experience with this tournament, normally held in August? I like the format (one day of WPS betting, one day of exacta betting) I\'m considering going out this year in light of the fact I had to miss this years opening rounds of the NCAA\'s. Thanks for any insights.
#15
Ask the Experts / Re: NO HDP
March 02, 2002, 11:11:27 PM
I\'m right there with you. I like FFA\'s pattern moreso than anyone elses and a move to around a 3 puts him right in the thick of it, especially given the weights, however I do not think that Martinez can make 116. At least I don\'t recall him doing so this last summer at Delaware when he was trying to break his funk. Even at even weight, I still like FFA at the price. Valhol looks nice as does San Pedro. I will bet against GH with his 3 consecutive negatives coming back to haunt him. IMO, he\'s been overbet many times in his career. KAN, the Donn hero for me, I think will react to the 0 he ran last out. He had to slowly forge to the first 0. Then the bounce to 7. I think that the seven is a valid number and not a product of turf. The 7.2 that he ran in his 3yo campaign seemed to fit with his overall pattern, so I think there\'s a good chance that KAN will be overbet given his huge Donn run and is a good horse to take a stand against.
Additionally, thanks once again to TG for their solid figures over the SA lawn. The Frank Kilroe Mile was a shining example of the strentgh of the turf numbers out West. Decarchy laid over this field, even with the wide post. Figured to settle in nicely and he did. The other two, Sarafan and Designed For Luck were very gettable. I\'ve been on a monster roll (for me at least) over the last 3 months, all thanks to TG. I\'ve never had so many signers in my whole playing career as I have now. (Sure Mr. IRS Agent, I had losses to offset those wins.)
Additionally, thanks once again to TG for their solid figures over the SA lawn. The Frank Kilroe Mile was a shining example of the strentgh of the turf numbers out West. Decarchy laid over this field, even with the wide post. Figured to settle in nicely and he did. The other two, Sarafan and Designed For Luck were very gettable. I\'ve been on a monster roll (for me at least) over the last 3 months, all thanks to TG. I\'ve never had so many signers in my whole playing career as I have now. (Sure Mr. IRS Agent, I had losses to offset those wins.)
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