Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - Rresnik

#1
Ask the Experts / CAW strikes again
September 03, 2023, 07:24:41 AM
Take a look at results for Saratoga 9 and 10 from yesterday. When the 9 th was over was sure exacta would pay $700-$800 for $2 bet. It paid 1/2 that. Hmmm I said to myself. I went back at looked at the pps. The second place finisher, 30-1, is owned by Ten Strike Racing, aka, Marshall Gramm, one of the big CAW players.Would love to know what the exacta was paying 2 minutes to post time . Race 10 had similar long shots ( btw- both races were makable on TGraph) - and the exacta paid twice as much. No further comment necessary.
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: Del Mar -- CAWs
July 24, 2023, 04:20:39 AM
As someone who has transitioned much of his play to horsetourney.com and horseplayer.com the CAW players have less impact particularly in those tournaments where the format is "pick and pray" meaning all bets are locked in and cannot be changed once the first race of the contest starts. In those contests where the bets are live,meaning you can change or make your bet until post time, and where the odds have significant impact on your strategy in choosing your bet, the CAWs will still have an impact, I.e. You select a 6-1 shot because you believe it will put you in the money and horse closes at 5-2! I have become a big fan of the contests- in most there is a premium on handicapping rather than betting since the bets are mythical. The contests also enable responsible players to manage their bankroll efficiently while enabling you to pick good betting races to bet live. And use of Thorograph gives you an edge. Oh, and it is a lot of fun when you see you are leading going into the last few races of any contest. You can qualify for NHC championship for as little as $18 and for BCBC for a little as $20. Go for it!
#3
Ask the Experts / Re: Del Mar -- CAWs
July 18, 2023, 08:45:40 PM
Fairmount-- as a retired  " creative lawyer " several points in response to your post. Even assuming arguendo ( lawyers love that word)I agree with everything in your post, it is mostly irrelevant to the real issue posed by  the CAW's and the tracks who support them. . There is no claim those players have done anything wrong and indeed they are to be admired for their hard work in creating algorithms that are effective. And the  "zero sum" argument you invoke, while perhaps true is equally irrelevant. Your seeking  to analogize the high rebates received by the bots with customers in a business setting receiving  a discount because they buy in bulk actually highlights the issue horseplayers face. If I go to my local supermarket to buy a gallon of milk and pay $10 it is meaningless to me that someone buying 100 gallons only pays $8 a gallon. I only have room or need for 1 gallon and I need that gallon. Horseplayers who want to bet ( mere mortals) do not have that option. Wherever I bet the CAW players will cut into my potential profits, and if they break even they make millions. Horse players  have no real alternative except to stop betting on horse racing. That is the problem. I have played this game for more than 50 years, turned a lot of people onto it and  made friends ( including TGJB) along the way. If someone like me walks away because my PERCEPTION  is that this very difficult game to beat is not fair, and others are getting a deal not available to me, the game is in trouble. And it is!  To make matters worse, the tracks are now hostage  to the CAW players. They have desperately tried to keep their ownership interests in Elite Turf quiet and desperately need those numbers to boost their handle. ( When NYRA  issued a press release that the Spring meet showed an 8% increase my first question was why don't you tell me- your consumer- how much of that handle comes from bots not mere mortals.Did anyone in the New York  Legislature ask that question when they approved the $450mm bond offering for NYRA?)).And if the CAW players, because of theoretical reduced rebates in the future in response to pressure from consumers,I.e.  bettors,  take their game to the Isle of Mann or some other overseas bookie, the tracks crater- all of them.  I had an ADW account with XPRESS bet. When news started to trickle out that STRONACH had an interest in Elite Turf, I raised the issue with XPRESS bet and advised I would not fund the ADW if what ai was hearing was reading was accurate. The response from XPRESS BET was to simply lie and advise me in writing that Stronach had no such interest. When I pressed them to state unequivocally they had neither a direct or indirect interest in Elite there was no response. Some transparency! No disrespect to the racetrack owners, breeders , and politicians but there is zero game without  bettors and notwithstanding that somewhat obvious fact horseplayers have historically allowed themselves to be shat upon on many levels starting in 1970 when  NY OTB, shunned by NYRA and the Phipps, thought it was a good idea to impose a 5% surcharge for the right to bet off track. I could go on and on. The only way to even begin to even out the playing field ( and please don't tell me that a player getting a 7-8% rebate does not have a huuuge advantage over us mere mortals) is for bettors to send an unequivocal message of their growing unhappiness by not betting until the game approaches some degree of being level for all bettors.
#4
Ask the Experts / Re: Maylin
July 16, 2023, 03:48:26 PM
And Golden Gate Fields is closing! But the CAW players will get their rebates while hundreds if not thousands of jobs get wiped away in Northern California.
#5
Ask the Experts / Re: Maylin
July 16, 2023, 06:31:19 AM
Fairmont-a true story. I was at Belmont day of Firenze Fire's Dwyer win. For those not familiar with what occurred- if my memory serves me correctly - Fire came into the race with a top around 7 or 8. His odds lingered around 5-1 and when gate opened he went off at 5-2. He won by around 9 lengths and I think he ran a negative 4! I had no economic interest in race but was a tad weary of TVG and Maggie fawning over Servis. I found what happened so offensive I sent a detailed email to NYRA, its  principal executives, and the New York State Racing and Wagering Board. I complained about both the remarkable magical improvement in the horse's performance as well as the huge amount of late money. Not surprisingly, there was zero response from NYRA. About 6 months later a received a call from an investigator from New York State Racing and Wagering Board. The investigator apologized that no one had returned my call, and  in a careful manner advised that there were on going investigations but could not discuss further. The rest is history. I do not believe my missive was in any way responsible for the indictments that followed for a Servis, Navarro and others but believe if more fans complained- whether it be about magic potions, CAW unfairness etc. the geniuses that run the game might actually listen a bit more. Horseplayers have to stop being pigs being led to slaughter. That's the state of the game.