I believe Tom Durkin made that call not Collmus.

Sierra Leone should have absolutely been disqualified and yes, Forever Young would have won.

FY had a brutal trip and IMO was certainly the best horse on the day, T O Password also had a brutal trip and ran extremely well. Hope the Japanese come back next year with a good one.

Too funny, my sentiments exactly. I made that vow after last years derby and it paid off this year.

Great info in the seminar and happily reinforced most of my opinions.

Fierceness blowout win in the Florida Derby is very reminiscent of Bellamy Road\'s 17 1/2 length win in the Wood. He had a similar running style to Fierceness and went off in the derby as the 5/2 favorite. He also broke from an outside post (16) and ended up chasing a ridiculously fast pace 45.38 half and 1:09.58 for 6 F. The race fell apart and Bellamy Road finished 7th.

The pace should be fast in this derby though certainly not that fast. Will history repeat? We shalll see.

Have never bet into derby futures pool. Getting fixed odds and hoping he shows up.

His odds of course will plummet in all futures pools if he runs well.
 
Two great betting races today with the Wood and Blue Grass, good luck to all!

You Be on to something with Encino. Love the breeding and Prat jumping on. The negatives are of course the post and the fact that he has never raced on dirt but breeding suggests he could be even better on dirt.

He is playable at anything near the 12/1 ML.  GL

Really interested in this one in the Blue Grass, it took him 6 starts to break his maiden but Pletcher thought enough of him to enter him in the Hopeful where he ran 4th and then sent him to Santa Anita for the  G1 American Pharoah where he ran a well beaten third behind Muth.

He finally broke his maiden in his last start but looked impressive doing it and lights out with his 3 workouts since. He is by Curlin out of a Congrats mare so distance shouldn\'t be an issue. Congrats good ones are mostly sprinters but he is by my boy A.P. Indy.

I always check horses running in the preps for a possible future and it is rare that you can find value this late in the game but I got Catching Freedom at 50-1 before the La. Derby and I am jumping on Be You at 150-1 at Circa. He is also 125-1 at WH.

Appreciate any thoughts or opinions.

I give them no chance at all. The one time I bet a southern hemisphere horse  in this race was Invasor who of course turned into a real good horse. He ran 4th in this race.

Having said that, I am wrong alot so they will probably run 1-2-3.

Roman, I have come to the conclusion that Fierceness will park in this race. The on again off again pattern as well as his sensational works since the Holy Bull suggests he could run big.

The draw of course did him no favors but I think that will be negated (at least as far as Hades goes) by the 6 lb shift in weights from the Holy Bull.

I am going to be on a Japanese horse, all 4 of them could hit the board. Senor Buscador back to two turns but gets 1 1/4, he will run his race but not liking him on top. Kabirkhan does look like a monster but thinking he will be overbet.

The three top choices look tough in here and I can only see Frankie\'s Empire crashing the party with the good PP draw. However, I have serious questions about him getting the 1 1/8.

Both Fierceness and Conquest Warrior have had issues at the start so that is a concern for both. This race will probably be a pass for me.

As always good luck to all.

Another great post Roman. Love the In Cold Blood reference rather ironic that Robert Blake played one of the killers in the movie.

I am in Vegas and have friends in town so won\'t be able to dive into the race until Thursday.

However, every year I put in $100 to play futures as Vegas can give you some good prices (William Hill and Circa) Right now I have two losers already in Speak Easy and Born Noble. Giving up on Pletcher as last year I had Tapit Trice at 125-1. I do have Hades at 300-1 thanks to Ajkreider and also Conquest Warrior at 100-1 but right now he is slow and has 0 points so need a much improved effort. Since I was all in on Catching Freedom I checked his odds on Friday and he was 18-1 at WH and 50-1 at Circa so I grabbed some at Circa.

I think your analysis is spot on but still skeptical on Hades. Obscure breeding and Orseno really has disappeared on the big stage since he won the Preakness with Red Bullet for Stronach.

Totally agree with Roman and will be keying Catching Freedom. Think he should have won the Risen Star without the difficult trip. He didn\'t change leads and was in tight and gets a terrific jockey change to Prat. Saez is not a jockey you want on a horse that has trouble changing leads.

Three maintenance works since the Risen Star and definitely has the pedigree to get the distance. He also has Cox in his corner and IMO he is the new Baffert.

A great betting race for sure, good luck to all!

Well done gentlemen! Big Red is correct over 50 years ago

I like Tapakena also. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on the first race Tavasco. What a betting race and great points by all on why they liked their horses. I am going 6 deep also in the first.

Looks like a sloppy track for the Gotham. Trivia question who was the last horse to pull off a Gotham, Derby Double? I was shocked by this.