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Messages - JohnTChance

#1
News that billionaire Illinois Governor JB Pritzker won $1.4 million playing blackjack in Las Vegas caught my eye over the weekend. My first reaction was to shake my head and say “God Bless America!” Did he write a book and just snag a rich deal with a powerful publisher? Was this a political kickback, somehow, behind the scenes? Nope. His campaign quickly announced that he’s donating his winnings to charity. Apparently, Pritzker is pro-gambling both legislatively and recreationally. Still, a pro-casino governor literally beating the house is a chuckle.

And where was he when Arlington Park racetrack died? To racetrack fans and Arlington Heights civic boosters, Pritzker was an uninvolved governor who did nothing to stop the shuttering of Illinois’ most iconic racetrack. He stood against bailouts and stadium subsidies. Fiscally prudent, but cold.

A quick digression: Pritzker’s big win reminds me of something that happened years ago when I was sitting in a box at Monmouth Park with a group of trainers and owners. It was Haskell Day and the track was holding a big raffle with a hefty cash prize. Everyone had a ticket and was eager to see who’d win.

Before the seventh race, the track announcer came on and said, “Congratulations to… Frank Generazio! YOU’VE WON $$$$$!”

The entire box erupted in laughter â€" people practically fell out of their seats. Why? Because Frank Generazio, as the saying goes, “had more money than God.” Of all the people at Monmouth Park that day, he was probably the last one who needed the ten grandâ€"or whatever the prize was.

[You may remember Frank Generazio as the successful New England businessman who moved to New Jersey and became a respected owner, trainer, and breeder of fast turf sprinters like CONCORDE BOUND, PURE SENSATION, and others.]
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: chris clement
May 26, 2025, 08:04:24 AM
I didn’t know Clement. But I knew when you\'d handicap a NYRA long distance turfer - say, 1 3/8 miles or so - the paramount factor was who the trainer was. Most of the time, half the field could be eliminated because the trainer just didn’t win ultra-long. Clemente could. Interestingly, he could also win at 5 1/2.

Finally, when I think of Christophe Clement, I’ll think of how his TONALIST beat me by a head in the 2014 Belmont, costing me zillions. I’d under-keyed MEDAL COUNT (25-1) for 2nd, 3rd and 4th and that played out perfectly as he sat a great close-up trip. COMMISSIONER (28-1) was wiring the field and muscling his way to the wire, almost home. TONALIST was closely stalking him, but was perilously wide wide wide all around the track. I told myself: “There ain’t no way TONALIST can find more here and win!” But he did with a final surge. Sigh. With CALIFORNIA CHROME off the board, the payoffs were enormous. I coulda been in pizza for the rest of my life. But I settled for a ham sandwich. Those tough beats stay with you forever.

RIP
#3
Bouton was in THE LONG GOODBYE (1973), directed by Robert Altman. The film is streaming now on The Criterion Channel.
#4
Ask the Experts / Re: R.I.P Uncle Bill
May 09, 2025, 03:14:10 PM
Bill Spillane - known as “Billy the Sheets” in my circles - was one of the nicest people I’ve ever met. I first met him around 1985, the year Spend a Buck won the Derby, just as I was starting to use ThoroGraph. That’s forty years ago! Time really does fly.

Back then, I wasn’t much of a gambler. My interest in horse racing began while making a film about Monmouth Park’s leading trainer, JJ Crupi, for PBS. Monmouth had a unique appeal, so I started taking the train from Penn Station to the Jersey Shore, picking up ThoroGraph booklets from Jerry Brown’s office in lower Manhattan beforehand. At Monmouth, a tip to an usher secured a prime box seat. When I asked about the ThoroGraph representative, that’s how I met Bill. The first thing he said to me was, “Are you a pro?” Haha.

Over the next decade or so, Bill and I became racetrack friends. Our box, and the boxes surrounding ours, became a gathering spot for handicappers, trainers, owners, Monmouth officials, and assorted characters and crazies. If you were anybody at Monmouth, you came by those boxes. Every day was an education.

For several years, when he had a car, Bill offered to drive me to the track. I’d take the train from Manhattan to Newark, meet him there, and he’d drive us the rest of the way. After the races, he’d insist on dropping me off at my Upper East Side apartment in Manhattan, never accepting my offer to save him the traffic and tunnel hassles and let me off in Newark.

Before ThoroGraph, Bill worked as a hot walker for a New Jersey trainer. He wasn’t from a privileged background and didn’t have much money. Then one day, he told me he was expecting a big money settlement. The previous winter, while working at Gulfstream Park, Bill had been in a serious car accident. With support from star trainers Shug McGaughey and Tommy Skiffington, he won his case.

After that, a change came over Bill. In our train rides down to Monmouth, instead of diving into the Daily Racing Form and ThoroGraph sheets as usual to handicap the card, Bill suddenly started reading The Wall Street Journal and Investor’s Business Daily! He fashioned himself some kind of Wall Street player! A big-wheel investor! It reminded me of that Honeymooners episode where Ralph Kramden inherits a parrot named Fortune. “Billy The Sheets” the business mogul!

He asked me for investment advice, and I suggested blue-chip stocks - choices that would be worth millions today. But Bill had other ideas: baseball cards and maybe buying a horse. Sigh. I never found out what he did with his settlement, or if he indeed received the full amount.

Finally, I have many memories of Bill at Monmouth, but one stands out: Haskell Day, the track’s biggest day. The place was packed, top horses were running, and therefore Bill’s ThoroGraph booklets sold out fast. Bill even gave his own copy to a customer. Later, Bill Finley, the New York Post racing writer, came looking for a booklet. With none left, he and his brother looked desperate, like addicts waiting for a fix that’s been denied. Ultimately, Bill Spillane borrowed a copy for them, and we watched as Finley shouted out numbers while his brother frantically scribbled them onto napkins. Two grown men, in jackets and ties, on the floor of our box, on their hands and knees, sweating and anxious over ThoroGraph racing data - it was an astonishing sight to behold. As John Lennon once said: “You shoulda been there!”

Rest in peace, Bill.
#5
Ask the Experts / FINAL GAMBIT...
May 05, 2025, 10:07:51 AM
From DRF’s Kentucky Derby race chart:

“FINAL GAMBIT was squeezed and steadied hard at the start, lagged at the tail of the field, launched a sweeping move seven wide, was fanned out ten wide entering the stretch, fought on doggedly and was making up ground.”

A most anticipated ThoroGraph. 3? (Gulp) 1.5?
#6
Been in hibernation. Got the urge. Bought sheets for 3 races tomorrow via my iPad and downloaded them. To my surprise, they’re now password protected. Ugh. My password(s) don’t work to open the pdf. Can someone help? JTC
#7
I purchased Friday’s Keeneland sheets early. Later, I was sent an “update\" e-mail about Kee’s 8th and 9th races. I compared versions and couldn’t quite spot any changes. Can you please be specific about what they were? What specific horse, or trainers,or sheets ratings were updated? Thanks.
#8
Ask the Experts / Re: Alan Benewitz
September 20, 2024, 03:42:07 PM
Very sorry to hear this. It seemed Alan lived in my neighborhood and we’d often pass each on the street and talk racing. Always so helpful to me. RIP.
#9
Ask the Experts / Re: Metformin
May 16, 2024, 01:26:15 PM
Re: Bregman: In 2022 when his performance dipped, Bregman reached out to Alex Guerrero, the controversial longtime trainer (and nutritionist, massage therapist, spiritual guide, etc.) of NFL great Tom Brady. Why was Guerrero controversial? Because the guy sold nutritional supplements, claiming they had miraculous effects. For example, that concussions could be solved by his products. Eventually, Guerrero was banned from the Patriots sideline and Tom Brady left and played successfully into his mid-40’s. [I wonder what supplements Tom and Patriots mighty, ever-ready running back Julian Edelman took as part of The Program. Just Vitamin C?] Anyway… so Bregman got on The Guerrero Program and then had a great postseason turnaround. And in an 2022 ALCS postgame interview, he credited Guerrero for his performance bounce. Not surprised of Bregman’s sympathies.
#10
Surprised to find David Milch’s memoir LIFE’S WORK in an obscure bookstore here in Thailand. It’s about his television-writing career, creative process and personal demons.

You might remember Milch for the popular television dramas he wrote or created, including HILL STREET BLUES, NYPD BLUE, DEADWOOD and LUCK, the series about horse racing. You also might know him as the owner of Breeder’s Cup winners GILDED TIME and VAL ROYAL. I used to see him at Santa Anita and the 53rd St. OTB Teletheater in Manhattan years ago.

LIFE’S WORK is a fascinating read, but it left me sad. For one thing, how and why did a brilliant and accomplished guy like Milch have serious substance abuse issues? Specifically, I was hoping to read how that started for him. The initial impulse to try. Wasn’t there a voice in his head that said stop? The answers weren’t there.

Then I learned he developed Alzheimer\'s, which in and of itself is saddening. And finally, the shocking bombshell that, unbeknownst to his wife, he gambled away his considerable fortune and beyond. How could this happen?

There’s a moment in THE HUSTLER when “Fast Eddie\" Felson, in his first pool game against Minnesota Fats, is losing badly. Suddenly, his partner flat-out tells Eddie: “Stop. He’s too good!” There’s a moment in our gambling lives when we instinctively know when to fold. When I’ve had bad days at the track (usually after good days?), there was a voice inside telling me to stop, take a break and reset. I’ve always listened to that voice. But, of course, not all people can.

I was watching CNBC’s Fast Money one memorable afternoon at the tail end of Covid-19, when the inimitable Dave Portnoy came on to discuss his experience as a day-trader, trading the stock market from home. Essentially, Portnoy related how he lost, lost and lost. He zigged when he should’ve zagged. Went short at the wrong time. Bought at the wrong time. He blew a huge chunk of money very quickly. Meanwhile, did the CNBC hosts express any warning to Portnoy or their audience about the downside of day-trading? The perils of gambling like this? No! They smiled and laughed all through the interview. To them, it was all so cute: Little Dave and his pizza-review world, now gambling stocks! Haha! On the other hand, every intelligent person watching at home was saying to themselves: “Dave, you’re pissing it away! Don’t be a fool. STOP!”

Many years ago at the former Gulf & Western Building off Central Park, I met an odd but interesting fellow named James Toback, a filmmaker, now of dubious notoriety. I told him the movie he had written, THE GAMBLER (1978) with James Caan, was a favorite of mine. At this, he lit up and we ended up walking across the park together, talking movies. Perhaps he saw me as a fish who could invest in his next project.

Fast forward to my typical weekday lunch in the 1990’s, gambling horses at the 53rd St. Teletheater in Manhattan. Joe Torre and Don Zimmer at a nearby table. At the betting windows, I’m second in line behind a guy in a disheveled oversized raincoat, even though it’s a beautiful warm day outside, not a cloud in the sky. The guy just keeps on betting endlessly! Every play having the air of being made up hastily on the fly. No sheets involved. No speed figures. Everything pure serendipity. He’d turn the pages of his flimsy in-house track program back and forth between races and venues, think for a few seconds, dictate to the teller his off the cuff plays… and then repeat. He wasn’t betting the Belmont thoroughbreds. He was betting the harness ovals, some to run later that night. Bathtubs like Monticello, Freehold, Yonkers and beyond. Losersville. I stood there, amazed at the costly wild stabs he made. Finally, I tapped him on the shoulder and told him there were others behind in line hoping to make a bet. Whereupon the guy turned around and said “I’m gonna be a while!” It was Toback.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Toback’s mad ramblings ultimately yielded him huge profits. But I doubt it. Given the self-destructive themes of Toback’s THE GAMBLER, I’ve tried to make sense of it, but still find it mysterious to understand. In any case, the point is: He didn’t know when to stop.
#11
Ask the Experts / Re: Biting my tongue…
October 30, 2023, 02:50:46 PM
If ThoroGraph\'s competitor is wrong so often, why do people buy it? A question you\'ve answered many times over the last 40 years I\'ve been using you.
#12
Ask the Experts / Eyes wide shut...
August 24, 2023, 09:03:44 AM
I was watching the Yankees game last night. [Yes, I know. They suck. Don't laugh.]

In the seventh inning, Washington Nationals right fielder Stone Garrett tried to make a spectacular leaping catch to deny a home run, but his spikes somehow caught on the right field wall and he fell down in scary pain. Cameras stayed with him laying horizontally on the ground with limited motion. The television audience was then shown multiple replays from multiple angles of what happened. Health aides arrived. Garrett's teammates gathered around him. And in the middle of all this, the television audience was shown a medium shot (not too close) of Garrett putting his hands to his face and, apparently... weeping. Weeping because of the pain he was experiencing? Weeping because of the sad realization his years of hard work to make the big leagues might be gone in an instant? Eventually, Garrett was ushered off the field to applause from the crowd. The entire unfortunate sequence must've lasted 15 minutes or so, commercial free. And all the while, Yankee broadcasters Michael Kay and Paul O'Neill talked the audience calmly through it in just the right tone. Well done.

The reason I bring this up is to contrast that television coverage with how the NYRA daily racing television show covered the unfortunate collapse, a few inches before the wire, of Bill Parcell's MAPLE LEAF MEL a few weeks ago at Saratoga. That coverage was pretty much non-existent. Right after it happened, the television host, stunned by the breakdown, quickly bailed live coverage by cutting to a commercial break. When coverage came back to him, he did it again. And, I think, again! Eventually, there were expressions of heartbreak and life proceeded on. Was there a van rushing to the scene? What was happening around the actual incident? I don't think they showed it. Unfortunately, racing's posture seems to be: "Let's all look away!" Now, I'm not suggesting racing should cut to the red meat and show close-ups of a terrible situation. How horse racing should properly cover incidents like this is another conversation. But I am suggesting they shouldn't just slam-dunk look away! Racing's unspoken directive seems to be to look away at any ugliness - sweep it under the rug. If a horse doesn't want to go into the gate and is acting a little unruly, DO NOT SHOW IT! "Hey cameraman #3, pan away from that horse!" Let's snip all the badness from replays. Edit it out. What indeed happened really didn't happen. Looking away all the time is a bad strategy.
#13
Ask the Experts / EVERYBODY KNOWS...
May 08, 2022, 08:00:17 AM
A favorite song by Leonard Cohen:

EVERYBODY KNOWS

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich, that's how it goes
Everybody knows

Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died
Everybody talking to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a log-stem rose
Everybody knows

Everybody who saw the overhead shot of the Kentucky Derby winner zooming past the field, like the rest of the horses were tied to a post, was in shock. But then we ask: Why? Why did this colt improve 12 to 18 lengths, like he was shot out of a cannon, to do what he did?

I woke up this morning to read rationalizations in THE ATHLETIC: Aha! The winners' sire, KEEN ICE beat the great AMERICAN PHAROAH! His mother was a champion in Canada! And then I read the worst thing people say: " Well... that's racing!" Unfortunately, they say the same thing when breakdowns on the track occur: "Hey it's just one o dem things." Wrong.

There's a valid reason why this happened: HE WAS INJECTED BEFORE THE RACE WITH SOMETHING STRONG THAT PROVOKED HIM. No one will suggest it because they can't prove it (with a video on YouTube). We can\'t quite touch or feel the answer. But everybody knows.
#14
Ask the Experts / She must've forgotten...
March 26, 2022, 04:20:48 PM
After Japan's CROWN PRIDE won the UAE Derby at 1 3/16 m today at Meydan, TVG's Michelle Yu commented on the winner's Kentucky Derby prospects. Alluding to the distance the colt just conquered, Yu gave viewers another example of her usual gobbledygook: "He's going to have an advantage no other horse is going to have!" she proclaimed.

No other horse? The Louisiana Derby was to be run later in the day, also at 1 3/16 m. She must've forgotten.
#15
At 40-1, Maker became my underkey (part-backwheel) when Chad scratched his horse. I killed the race. Beware Maker's young horses this time of year zooming forward. Especially at Turfway soon. It happens every Spring with him there. Here though, at Tampa, he scored a nice check but he apparently did not move forward.

During the week, everyone expected huge volcanic rain at Tampa last Saturday. Funny to turn to that race and see it sunny with a dry track. Did track maintenance scrape it beforehand? Was it speed-biased? The winner and Maker went 1-2 all around the track. Maker rail-all and the winner 2-path-all. The winner won by 2 lengths. Brian Lynch's good horses tend to run pretty "straight" ThoroGraph's (though 2nd off a layoff they can improve a bit), so I presume CLASSIC CAUSEWAY paired his Sam Davis. And if the winner paired, it makes sense that Maker paired too.

By the way, with no Baffert this year in the Derby, it\'s worth noting CLASSIC CAUSEWAY breaks really well from the gate. Does he break better than any west-coast-based Derby-bound speedballs? Asmussen\'s speedball at FG?