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Messages - Student of the game

#1
I would like to make a request that revised Thoro-Graph and Ragozin rankings be posted for all races that are taken off the turf (as was the case with the 5th and 9th races Friday, July 28, at Saratoga and probably will be the case dozens of times during the meet).

When races are taken off during the card, as was the case Friday, this means after-the-fact posting, but that would seem to be a lesser evil than either rating a dirt race based on turf figures or throwing out the race completely.

I have enjoyed tracking the results of the study and your hard work is appreciated.



#2
Ask the Experts / Upcoming figure study: Beyers?
July 12, 2006, 08:15:05 AM
It would be interesting to see how Beyer Speed Figures fare in the upcoming Thoro-Graph vs. Ragozin figure study being done during the Del Mar and Saratoga meets.

Although there are some drawbacks to this idea (added workload and perhaps added cost for those doing the study, plus the tricky issue of adjusting for weight with the Beyers), the advantages seem to greatly outweigh the disadvantages because a large portion of the betting public uses the Beyer Speed Figures.

Whether the Beyers are included or excluded, thanks in advance to those putting in all the work on the figure study.
#3
Ask the Experts / Breaking through tops
January 15, 2003, 08:39:40 PM
Mr. Brown:
Since it is the time of year when we will see 3-year-olds break through their 2-year-old tops, I would be interested to know what you consider the ideal pattern(s) for such horses in terms of a next-out bet.

If a horse with a good overall line makes a small move to surpass his 2-year-old top of, say, 12, and then returns to race after about a month off, how many points of improvement would you project?

In the cases of horses that break through their 2-year-old tops in their first or 2nd starts at 3, then go backward, what do you consider acceptable and unacceptable patterns for the intervening race? Using the above example, what if the horse with a 2-year-old top of 12 runs an 11 1/2, comes back on reasonable rest, then goes backward? Does it make a big difference to you if the intervening race is a 13 or 17 in terms of betting the horse the next time?

I would greatly appreciate your sharing any concepts that apply to these situations that we will be seeing in the upcoming months. Finally, I\'m sure you have a lot on your plate, but is there any chance of either a book or an extremely detailed, example-filled workbook/user\'s manual on Thoro-Graph patterns and concepts? (Your introductory materials are nicely done, but I\'m getting greedy . . . and it would be helpful to see an advanced version of some of the theories.)

Thanks for your time and high-quality product.