Thanks for the research. If you assume it will take about a 1 to win, there are only 3 horses that have run fast enough so far. Given Todd’s history and just the overall history of horses with negative numbers coming in, it’s very likely Fierceness bounces. He can bounce a little and still win but that’s tough to take on a favorite.

Sierra Leone is another who could bounce. A couple other things concern me about him: Chad giving him more time between the FG race and Blue grass than he gets coming into this one doesn’t make sense. He’s used that path in the past with Zandon who ran well but still off his top. Similar pattern with Highly Motivated too. Sierra also seems to be a bit green with his gate antics and drifting down the stretch, that may be amplified on derby day. Finally, I can’t see Tyler being patient enough to get a ground saving trip. Not that any jock wants to get a horse stopped but especially not the second choice in the derby. He will have to lose a lot of ground at some point so even if he runs a pair it probably isn’t good enough because of this.  

Forever Young is the third that’s run fast enough. If he had improved at all this year I’d love him but as is he could go either way. He’d be trying to do something that many before him have tried, none successfully, in running well out of Dubai which is hard to trust.

It’s hard for me to get too excited about any of these 3 so I’m very interested to see what the seminar thinks of who might jump forward. Resilience, Honor Marie and Catching Freedom seem interesting.

As someone on here already mentioned, I think one of the only bits of information that could have helped us anticipate a big run from Rich Strike is the data from his dam. She was clearly the fastest dam of any other derby runner and from looking at her equibase numbers it looks like her big jump from the 2 yr old top of a 9 to the 3 yr old top of O probably happened in May of her 3 yr old year as well. I know the numbers are different so I shouldn\'t assume that her big equibase fig was her O on TG and that was her second start off a layoff  but for conversation sake lets say it was. It got me thinking then that I know the sheets have average figures that the sire produces for a given age of offspring but 3 yr olds can develop so much over the year its hard to tell when the jump usually happens (i.e. spring, summer, fall). It would be great to have data that broke down the sires offspring by season, similar to how the trainer stats have \"3 yr old apr-jun\". Also, I assume Rich Strike will be a major bounce candidate in the Preakness, but it was interesting his dam held together her improved form on short rest for 1 more start. Thanks for everything Jerry

Does anyone else find it incredible that Maximum Security, arguably the best horse in the derby despite the DQ, debuted as a $16k maiden claimer. I know he is supposedly pretty lazy in the mornings, but the West’s and Servis have been doing this for a long time and you’d think they’d know what they had in him. Maybe the connections were trying to cash a bet in that maiden race but he didn’t even go off favored and you’d think they’d do it at a higher tag. Having only followed the sport and never been around horses, maybe some really are that hard to judge talent outside of a race.