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Messages - Roman

#1
You bring up an excellent point. If someone enters a pari-mutuel pool voluntarily, what is the harm done to that person? Lower odds? It\'s pari-mutuel wagering, the odds change.

And even if you bet into a CAW tainted pool, are you only harmed if you won the wager and the payout was reduced by the CAW activity?

I understand the frustration with CAW\'s, and the need for change, but really, what are the chances this gets to the discovery phase?

Is every participant in the class going to have to provide there betting history? Who is going to go through all that data & see what wagers where affected by CAW play?
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: AQU Race 6 , CAW Flaw
November 16, 2025, 11:51:13 AM
Obsessed seems like an understatement.  Makes you wonder what other info they are obtaining.
#3
Being brought up \"Roman\" Catholic, lol, I live with a perpetual guilt, just from not being able to do more. I could not sleep at night if I was corrupt morally.
There are good people in this world, and we/they need to stand together and fight any and all corruption.

Corruption might not affect you this time, but it will affect you eventually.
#4
Where there is money, there is corruption.
#5
Ask the Experts / Re: Aqueduct Race 2 today
November 14, 2025, 09:26:12 AM
Yes, they are killing their own odds, hence the rebate.
#6
Ask the Experts / Re: CAW and Billy Walters
November 11, 2025, 04:53:44 PM
Correct, not picking winners, just making the market to efficient and taking all the value out of the pool. And with there \"deals\" & rebates, they cannot lose money.
#7
Ask the Experts / Re: CAW and Billy Walters
November 10, 2025, 07:14:24 PM
Does anyone believe that the \"Joker\" didn\'t tip his hand in court in that article? He states that he takes all the liquidity out of the pool and makes it so efficient,  that even if he loses 5% , assuming they lose all the time, he is guaranteed 5% return on his handle from rebates.

Churning a billion dollars through the totes, assuming no winnings, leaves you with 50 million guaranteed.  

So is this all the CAW\'S players M.O.? Is one player just playing for rebates, or is someone trying actually to win like a Bill Benter?
#8
Ask the Experts / Re: CAW and Billy Walters
November 10, 2025, 10:54:50 AM
https://www.smh.com.au/national/meet-the-joker-the-australian-who-is-the-biggest-gambler-in-the-world-20180515-p4zfhi.html

This is who I heard was an Elite customer, Elite#2,  but just hear say, allegedly , and this is what struck me in the article.

\"We’re called Bankroll â€" Bankroll Punters Club, that’s what we call ourselves,\" Zeljko told the court. \"Customers that bet on our level number in the handful in the world,\" he said matter-of-factly.

But, as he explained to the court, it wasn’t winning that kept them way ahead of the average punter â€" it was the rebates or \"loyalty payments\".

\"It’s very simple,\" Zeljko told the court. \"If you bet $100 and lost $5, but you get a 10 per cent rebate, you still make 5 per cent.\"

\"You always win,\" he said. \"I’m telling you that, if you bet very large, it’s a pari-mutuel pool, you depreciate it so far that you end up getting under fair odds. If you fix something at $8, you get six, but if you get a rebate that puts you into the positive.\"
#10
That horse Goliath has a condition called stringhalt. War of Will had the same funky gait at a walk. I know it looks bad, but they run fine with it, and is not a factor in horses breaking down.

I just don\'t know what the answer is. The health records & treatment of all horses should be public just like in Hong Kong.

Tamara was scratched and is another horse with large gaps between starts. Obviously has some issues.

Plus medication withdraw. Any permissible treatments wearing off. I am more upset about not knowing what the horse was treated with, and why, than the horse being scratched.

The owners & trainers need to sign a disclosure agreement and let us see every thing.
#11
Never bet a Reploe horse in the future wagers?

Grande still has not made it back to the races, trained by Todd Pletcher. Repole said he was fine to race.

White Abarrio has soundness issues, bad feet. I am not a vet, nor pretend to be. If the vets are not to be trusted, who should make the call to scratch an unsound horse. The connections are biased, I want to believe the vets are not.

What should have been done? Let the horse run because the connections think the horse is sound. I like to think that the vets speak for the horses.
#12
One horse breaking down is one to many IMO. It sucks to have your horse scratched by the vet, but the data supporting the scratches, is pretty much hard to argue against.

How many horses have been scratched and never raced again, or where off for an extended period of time after a scratch.

I have no problem with the vets erring on the side of caution. Isn\'t the horse supposed to come first no matter what?
#13
On a side note, Absurde in the Melbourne Cup tonight has the same owners & trainer.
#14
Doesn\'t White Abarrio have hoof issues. When Dutrow had him, he said the horse has bad feet. He even flew Ian the farrier to the stars out to Santa Anita to have him shod with some Yasha\'s, glue on shoes.
#15
https://x.com/Tinky47flat/status/1984652210957865161
He made a case for the horse. Ruined my day. Looked at him once and never gave a second look. When he crossed the finish line, I had to look to see who he was. Just like Rich Strike.