Ambiguous...

Perfect timing. Yet another pretentious type who mocks someone for trying to predict the early pace of the derby. The mystery was in Thorograph\'s race shape figs. And even Jerry Brown couldn\'t explain it so I moved on. Just curious though, did the seminar predict a 22.24 first quarter and a 45.77 half mile? Ultimately I predicted a fast pace and figured Justify would survive on talent, with either Audible, Good Magic, or Bolt finishing 2nd, the same 3 combined with a few closers coming in 3rd, and either Hofburg, Instilled Regard, My Boy Jack, or Lone Sailor finishing 4th. I got lucky that the lower priced closers had troubled trips and Instilled Regard at 85-1 had a clean trip. Hit the super for almost $20,000. How\'d you do?

Having Justify, Good Magic, and Audible in the trifecta was the easy part. Didn\'t need to spend extra money on a seminar for that combo. But how about Instilled Regard in the super? He was one who took some finding. Did you throw him out after he finished 4th in the Santa Anita derby? Hmmm...what was his fig? Was he too slow when he tried to run down Justify on a loose easy lead?

And there\'s the pretentiousness I was talking about. Apparently I joined 4 days ago and I\'m not fit to comment. Ok. LoL

LoL pretentious

Here\'s the thing, the Thorograph people don\'t take into account pace or class when making their analysis. They rely purely on their figs as the end all solution to their handicapping. I haven\'t wasted my money buying their seminars or analysis in a long time but I can imagine what they said this year was something along the lines of how a majority of the field has earned a competitive fig at some point in their careers and that makes it one of the most competitive Kentucky derby fields in a while. But the truth is that many of the figs earned were what I like to call \"fake\" figs because the pace and/or class scenario set up perfectly for the horse when it was earned and matching that fig in the Kentucky Derby is extremely unlikely. So next time you think about purchasing their seminar think again because although the figs are great, you have to use them in context. And Thorograph doesn\'t do that. In fact Thorograph has race shapes for the purpose of analyzing pace but don\'t think for a second that that even matters. Even Jerry Brown himself will say that he doesn\'t have \"time to piss away on this nonsense.\" Unfortunately horse racing is not a sport with a shortage on pretentious d-bags. And these discussion forums are full of them as well.

I mean, where horses want to position themselves early on and how easily they can get there makes a difference. You didn\'t know that?

Seriously? Based on WG pace figs it was actually pretty easy to see. Was it really that hard for you?

Rayya jumping 4 points would have been ridiculous. Calm down.

But 18 lengths? And a track record at the distance? And faster than some of the older horses in the Dubai World Cup? Can\'t all be because of the bias.

Ok here\'s another question regarding pace...

Noble Indy runs his first quarter mile in the Rebel Stakes 1 length behind a 24.15 pace and thorograph charts his first quarter in their race shapes as 24.50. But in the Louisiana Derby he runs 1 length behind a 22.97 pace, and thorograph charts his first quarter in their race shapes as 24.57. Slower than the Risen Star.

So as I now know well, each horse’s time is adjusted for track speed, wind, weight carried, and ground loss, if any. In the Risen Star he carried 116 lbs. In the Louisiana Derby he carried 122. Looking only at the weights, running 1 length behind a 22.97 pace while carrying 122 lbs vs running 1 length behind a 24.15 pace carrying 116 lbs I\'d assume the Louisiana derby fig would come back much faster. But instead it actually came back slightly slower. So either the wind was heavy on Louisiana Derby day or the track was playing way fast. Would appreciate some insight if available.

Looking more closely into the race perhaps I can answer my own question.

Arkansas Derby Incremental Fractions were:
2f: 23.34
4f: 25.26
6f: 24.79
8f: 24.48
9f: 11.99

Being that the first 2f was the quickest and next two 2f fractions were the slowest maybe both the thorograph pace figs AND Brisnet pace figs are correct because thorograph uses the first 1/4 mile in their figs and Brisnet uses the 1/2 mile and 3/4 mile fractions.

According to the explanation it says \"We have taken the first quarter mile run by every horse in their recent races, and adjusted each horse’s time for track speed, wind, weight carried, and ground loss, if any. We then gather the data for all the horses running on a race card, and further adjust those times based on the recent speed of the track they are running over today. The resulting adjusted quarter times give the handicapper the ability to form an idea of the early speed of each horse, and the early pace of each race.\"

Based on the four factors we know weight carried was 122, which was more than some of the other contenders carried that day, and we know ground loss was zero as he had the rail early on. Other fig makers have the early pace as very slow, but thorograph has it fairly quick. So we can assume weight played a part. But what about the wind? Or perhaps the track was playing slow that day? Which factor(s) made thorograph\'s early pace fig so much faster than the others?

Thanks,
Andrew

I read that and it makes sense but my question is specific to the Arkansas Derby. I think everyone sees the Arkansas Derby as having a very slow early pace but thorograph has it as the 3rd fastest (for the first quarter mile at least). Can you can share the numerical data that was used, or at least give some insight as to why this was the case?

As I said before, I highly respect thorograph figs and right now I\'m trying to decide whether Magnum Moon\'s pace in the Arkansas Derby was much faster than most people think. Depending on that answer, my handicapping changes dramatically.

It\'s actually a question about the possible reasons for the discrepancy between Thorograph race shapes and BRISnet. So I think this is appropriate place to ask.

Also, I have great respect for thorograph\'s figs, so I\'m wondering if they had some piece of data that was used to come up with their fig that would explain why they had Magnum Moon\'s first quarter mile much faster than most people would assume. According to thorograph, only Enticed and Promises Fulfilled had faster opening quarter miles in their 9 furlong preps than Magnum Moon.

Found this online:

\"The BRIS Race Shapes measure how fast the leader ran relative to the average leader time for the race\'s final time. The faster the leader\'s pace, the higher the BRIS Race Shape (eg. +7). The slower the leader\'s pace, the lower the BRIS Race Shape (eg. -7).\"

\"The BRIS Race Shapes use a fixed scale of two (2) points-per-length. For example, a \"+6\" Race Shape represents a pace which is three (3) lengths faster than normal.

\"The first BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the first call (2f call for most sprints; and 4f call for most routes). The second BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the second call (4f call for most sprints; and 6f call for most routes).\"


In the Arkansas Derby the BRIS race shape was (-15 , -19). So approximately 7 lengths slower than normal at the 4 furlong point and approximately 9 lengths slower than normal at the 6 furlong point.

Maybe I\'m missing something. But that\'s why I\'m asking for others\' opinions. Assuming the BRIS and TG figs are correct, why the discrepancy?