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Messages - bfick

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: He Is Scratched
October 29, 2025, 10:25:52 AM
I believe Saturday will be his coming out party.  Would have bet him even with Sovereignty in the race.
#2
Ask the Experts / Taiba
May 05, 2022, 03:13:41 PM
This guy is my pick on Saturday.  Fastest horse in the race will somehow be 4th-6th choice in the betting.  I made this mistake before, but not again on Saturday.  I know, no horse has won with only 2 races since.......... blah, blah, blah.   These are different times.  Those that have run the most, and have the figs to take this, have to pass more than half the field.  This guy won't see 15 of the horses after the first few jumps based on his positional speed.  From the 12 hole he should get a great trip.  Oh, and for his lack of seasoning...... he has 26 officially recorded workouts, so he's not some late arrival to the track and I'm sure Baffert didn't put him out there with a bunch of slugs.

Sign me up for every bit of the 10-1 I expect to get.

Good Luck.
#3
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby Conditions
May 05, 2022, 02:50:16 PM
Zero chance he's favored over Zandon. I think he will end up close to his 8-1.  Maybe a tick below but should be close to the ML.

I'm most interested in where the Japanese horse ends going off at. He's my pick as the steam horse this year.
#4
Ask the Experts / Re: Pocket Square
June 05, 2021, 01:51:15 PM
LOL!

Nice to see him win with his one mount today.  I always enjoy watching him ride.
#5
Ask the Experts / Pocket Square
June 05, 2021, 12:30:25 PM
Lots of buzz surrounding this one.  Needs a new top, which is certainly within reach and she\'s facing no world beaters in here.  Keying this one on top and using Mott\'s horse who looks ripe to run a new top as well and the two shippers (both with numbers to contend) to round out the tri\'s.

Good Luck!
#6
Ask the Experts / Re: Ogden Phipps
June 03, 2021, 12:31:56 PM
Weight adjusted he\'s right there and should get a good trip, so at 30-1 I wouldn\'t talk you off him.  My issue is he\'s coming off a top on only 3 weeks rest and I expect a regression today.  I also think that while he may get the lead he will have to work for it, as JV has to be looking to do the same with Channel Cat. I\'ll definitely be using Melvin underneath, but not on top.  

Overall I really like DS to take this.  His comeback was rock solid and I think he\'ll like the additional ground today.  With a cozy inside slot I expect him to kick hard in the lane and be tough for anyone else to run down.  The value will be keying him in all the horizontals with some other horses I like who will be decent prices.
#7
Ask the Experts / Re: Belmont Day - 6th Race
June 03, 2021, 10:32:52 AM
I have him going backwards in this race.  His tops have been at the same track and the short rest has me pegging him middle of the pack here.

I keep coming back to Sombeyay and Fast Boat as the two I want in here to beat the favorite.
#8
Ask the Experts / Re: Ogden Phipps
June 03, 2021, 10:11:14 AM
Agree.  I really like her in this spot and was singling in all multi-races bets.

What do you think of Bonny South running a new top here?  She basically ran the same race all of last year and then jumped up in her first start as a 4 year old.  I think she\'ll eventually get to a number that puts her in the mix but not sure if Saturday\'s the day.  

Good Luck!
#9
Ask the Experts / Re: The Jerry Brown Pick 3
May 01, 2021, 06:54:57 AM
Tough sequence indeed.  

8th- I think one of the two favs will run back to their top, which will take this.  I\'ll be keying the 3&8 for this leg.  Two horses who I think can jump up and make the exotics interesting are the 7&11.  Take out the one route race and the 7 has a nice forward moving pattern.  A new top probably doesn\'t take this, but he could sneak into the tri at double digits.  Same with the 11.  The turnback to one turn makes this one interesting at big odds.

9th- This is a headscratcher.  Keying on the 1&5, as these are two of the faster ones who I have the most confidence in getting good trips. Will also use the 14 outside, as he has a nice pattern that should get him involved underneath if he can work out a trip.

10th- Despite having to use the old veteran Whitmore I will only do so defensively.  For this race I\'m looking to key the two 4 years olds, who both look like a new top could be coming today.  Basin\'s comeback was good and a forward move looks very likely.  Same with the 4 horse.  Expecting the 2 to run a good one and his top puts him right in the mix.  

Key P3 3,8/1,5/3,5
Backup 3,7,8,11/1,5/3,5
Backup 3,8/1,5,14/3,5
Backup 3,8/1,5/2,3,5,9,12

Good Luck!
#10
Ask the Experts / Re: The 146th Kentucky Derby Field
September 01, 2020, 09:17:38 AM
Foot issue. Targeting the Preakness
#11
Ask the Experts / Re: Majid
August 22, 2020, 08:34:23 AM
thanks.  much appreciated
#12
Ask the Experts / Majid
August 22, 2020, 06:37:01 AM
Any sense what this guy ran in the 8/19 race?

Thanks
#13
Ask the Experts / Re: Carter
June 06, 2020, 08:33:26 AM
If that\'s the case then this race just got a lot less interesting.  Vekoma will go off solid favorite and tough to toss.  Will still be playing race by trying to get the 4  or 7 into the tri and toss the 10 and 1.  

Good luck
#14
Ask the Experts / Carter
June 06, 2020, 06:57:46 AM
Nice to have Belmont back with a great betting card today.  Shug sends out two exciting colts making their 4 year old debuts and as much as I think both have big 2 year old campaigns ahead of them, today is a day to play against them at low odds.

1.  FF- has the numbers, but let\'s see how he does first time away from Service.  Toss at low odds.
2.  Performer- super talented colt who I think has a big year ahead.  Will get a good trip but probably needs a new top to get into the top spots.  Shug\'s as steady as they come, and will have this one ready, but going to play against him for top honors and use defensively underneath.
3. Still Having Fun- Has a race 2 years ago at the track that would make him playable to hit the board but has done nothing outside of Laurel since then to even consider.  Easy Toss
4. Nitrous- Needs a new top and today could be the day. Got right back to his three year top in his 4 yr. old debut and has had plenty of time off to fire a good one today. Wide trip likely so tough to endorse for all the marbles, but definite use underneath at the price.
5. Network Effort- Already has a three year old fig to contend and now gets 8 pounds from the fastest horse and looks to be sitting on a forward move.  Not expecting to get ML odds, but anything in 5-1 range makes him the play.
6. Midnightcharley- too slow. toss
7. American Anthem- has races that at one point would have made him the favorite for this race.  Has since fallen off with new trainer. A return to those races would make him a major player and double digit price makes this guy interesting.  Will be using in all slots.
8. Bon Raison- Heavy hitter has some goods races but most are ground loaded.  Another wide trip coming and OTB most likely outcome.
9. Majestic Dunhill- Has only one race in his lifetime that would give him a chance to hit the board.  Toss
10. Mind Control- Fastest horse in the race and has has plenty of time since 2 point top.  However, at the weight and another wide trip he is a play against at low odds.
11. Vekoma- Tough horse to watch run with paddling style but no doubting there\'s some talent here.  First race was perfect comeback and expect him to fire another strong one here today.Must use.

The Play

Key- 5
A\'s= 4,7,11
B\'s= 2
C\'s= 10

Good luck!
#15
Ask the Experts / Re: Street Band
April 18, 2020, 04:17:52 PM
Tough beat but nice call on the horse.

I bet this gal in the BC hoping they would do exactly what they did today. Sadler is the one trainer I can\'t win with, but when I ignore him he blows up my tickets.