I\'ve watched this horse (Creator) closely and I feel odds for him to at least pair his last are much greater than the 20% average from the profile. Admittedly, the 4 preps this year (really 5 if you add his 12/31 race) would predict a bounce on the surface... but I think probability is much less than what the profile suggests.  

Handicapping play here is to toss the FG races given: a) one must assume the colt has figured it out in the last 60-90 days, b) colt was trying to make his closing move behind hideously slow fractions and don\'t think those races took much out of him. With that said, his maiden score 3 out was as visually impressive as anyone in the field while in hand.

Good shot he pairs which puts him in the mix and certainly not a horse I\'m tossing.