Not sure if they sold but Prop Swap had Bengals 300/1 ticket listed. Craziest Super Bowl odds ever.  Burrow is a stud but they're terrible upfront.  That's an issue vs this Rams team.  I think both teams might have a hard time moving the ball.  I like the under.  And probably will take the points though I like the Rams to win a close lower scoring game.  MVP props spreading money on the Rams defensive players is something I'll mess around with as well.  Should be a good game regardless.

To a lessor degree as far as looking for one to throw a new top- it seemed to appear that Rombauer was being pointed to the Preakness all winter/spring.  Yes his first race was on turf but he ran well at two on dirt, so bringing him back in a race that was an automatic entry to the Preakness, The El Camino Real, and then skipping the derby despite having enough points after the 3rd at Keeneland seemed to confirm this was the plan all along.

 If a top trainer seems to be pointing toward a particular race all season, and he’s got a decent pattern to boot, I think you can expect the horse to be ready to roll in that spot more often than not all things equal.

I think the interesting point to take away from this discussion is what TGJB said in regards to distinguishing tops, if you think a horse is sitting on a new top but is a bit slow, not to assume that if he does run a new top it won’t be enough to get it done.  That was a mistake that I seemed to make repeatedly as of late, and more than once on the Derby card.  As to the Preakness, I personally thought he’d run well but didn’t think he could beat all three of the chalk, the BB’s & MB. But after reading here in the forum I piggybacked off Johnnym’s pick/post that he wrote indicating he was taking a decent swing with the winner, and boxed a small tri as opposed to only keying the BB’s as I otherwise would have. (Thank you Johnnym!)

As to CT, he was walked off? WTF is going on there, bleed? Hurt? Just didn’t fire so why have him finish??  The optics of that seem pretty awful considering the past two weeks unless there’s something seriously wrong.  I never would have expected that to happen.  I thought there was good chance he’d scratch, and when he didn’t walking off is the absolute dead last outcome I expected.

I feel like if CT is gonna run a big one it’ll be here.  As you pointed out his last wasn’t as over the top awful as everyone seems to think.  He was BB’s “second string” which is usually pretty strong, ie Justify etc.(not saying CT is Justify though, just that BB’s other is normally legit). But he has a pretty solid pattern coming in, and there’s no reason to think BB won’t have MS ready to run, same as every other derby winner.  Especially with all that’s going on, I just can’t see him running up the track really at all.

Rambauer figures to get a good trip as should Coach’s jump up special.  I don’t think the BB’s duel each other into submission at all, so I see a milder pace scenario.  With that in mind I definitely don’t want anyone that’s trying to close or come from off the pace.  But I could see it unfolding kind of “turfy” in the stretch.  

I will say I planned on throwing out the two Chad’s completely.  But I can’t help but remember a few years back when I was loud and proud on here about doing the same thing with Cloud Computing, despite TGJB giving him as the most likely winner.  Pretty sure I was the only one ripping up tickets while everyone else soaked up that 9-1 or whatever.  I’m not gonna lie, I’m a bit nervous, thinking I’m making the same mistake again?

 But hey, I love pain, and obviously a slow learner, hell I bet TAP in the derby AGAIN, like it was mystifying to watch DO fight the jock and decide he wasn’t interested and KA break great, choke back and come up completely and totally empty with a rail trip. Shocking stuff I know, who coulda foresaw TAP’s not fire the first Sunday in May??  I mean really?

I’m conflicted but as of tonight I’ll use CT & Rambauer and mix in the other derby starters in supers based on post time odds.

Cocaine only shows up for ~48 hours depending on your metabolism.  Touching it or breathing in second hand smoke isn’t enough to show up.  Your coworkers story is a super tough sell.

To the point, in 2021 there’s many options to beat drug tests, it blows my mind that some of these trainers with the amount of money invested in the programs & horses can’t beat tests they know are coming?

That’s what doesn’t make sense to me?  How is that you know exactly what kind of test will be in ministered and when for the most part, yet still fail them?

IMO the worst for racing is having the most visible trainer’s horse “taken down” or DQ’d in the biggest race of the year.  That is an unmitigated disaster that the sport can’t let happen.  I could see lawsuit after lawsuit after class action suit being filed, the result would be the nut low on multiple levels.  Just can’t happen.

For me the frustrating thing is the amount of the substance and the fact that it’s not a banned substance, your horse just can’t have it in their system on race day.  So if MS had 21 “one trillionths” according to ESPN, I mean the end result likely will be the same as Justify or last year at Oaklawn.  But it’s obvious something is going on and has been for awhile.

But if it has no effect on performance at the detected levels, it’s a none issue for me.  That said there’s obviously something nefarious going on and being Preakness week, this story won’t be going away.

Looked like he broke well enough and then Irad “choked” him back and it was pretty much a done deal after that, never really got into the race.  Shocking I know, who woulda suspected that TAP’s stable wouldn’t fire in the derby???  At least his Filly did what was expected.

I love that cat, I bet half the real estate in the greater Houston area has his furniture inside in some capacity!

As to MS. BB’s lukewarm at best endorsement of his entrant aside, He hasn’t gone forward in his 3 year old races and I’m not sure if he’s fast enough to get the lead?  Forwardly placed for sure, but I don’t think he out runs Soupy or RYW?  There’s always a few that contest the pace, or better said, dead send and end up on the front when they haven’t shown that kind of speed/style in their recent preps. Like an Uncle Sigh, or the Palace Malice blinker experience.  I think two of the TAP’s could be more forwardly placed along with Like the King.  Seven straight winners from the front end is the trend, and I’m not trying to fade it, but it’s tough this year?

Soupy might be fast enough and head strong enough to complicate things up front for RYW?  Unless he doesn’t want/need the lead and prefers to stalk the pace.  MS should be up there as well, who’s going to be closer to the pace than in their previous races?

It seems EQ doesn’t like being anywhere but outside.  Jock kinda confirmed it in a a post BG interview.  That’s pretty problematic in a 20 horse field.

Sigh... guess I’ll have to wait a little while to torch off my money backing him... I really did think I might end up betting the ml favorite this year for the first time in, I don’t know, close to forever. Then I was thinking, great now you’ll get a price on him.  I mean,  Was his AK derby really “that bad?”  One subpar effort, 3rd by a head in a grade 1 million dollar race and forget about it.  Tough justice indeed.

Wasn’t that the situation with Mendolsohn?  Freaked turf to dirt and then didn’t run anywhere near as well the next couple if I’m remembering correctly? There was plenty of talk here in the forum expecting the forward move or at least a pair up in KY that didn’t materialize. But this one “should” be on the lead, maybe a fairly “easy” one to boot.  

How long has it been since someone has won not being on the front end? Orb, Animal Kingdom, I’ll Have Another, they were a while ago already.  Seems like lately it’s mandatory to be stalking or on the pace. That’s one of the main reasons I don’t want a short price on the most decorated and likely post time favorite at all.

Is anyone willing to give CT another shot?  Had a nice progressing pattern coming in, if he won he’d likely been second choice, now he’ll be left for dead.  Neither Baffert’s ran their A race today.  I don’t know, I’m not completely jumping ship yet, even though you could make the argument that he’s yet to run “fast” and gave up the ghost in deep stretch.

As of today I’m not interested in the “champ” at all.  Charlie and TAP’s A team impressed.  BB’s haven’t for the most part but feel like they’ll be their “rebraking” selves once they get to KY.

Needs another move forward, I like him to do it to.  I think the posts will hurt a few that have already run faster to. Tough to win this race from the outside.

I saw the same thing in the book earlier in the day, but I watched the race from the house, I didn’t catch them mention it once in the ~hour between the Forrester & the derby.