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Messages - GChandler

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: Pool Liquidity
November 21, 2015, 04:06:29 PM
CAW players leaving the game would likely cause T\'Bred handle to fall by 3 billion (annualized) almost immediately.  The effect on tracks like GP, AQU & SA would be less than at some other tracks but still noticeable.  Smaller tracks like  HAW, TuP, TP, MNR, Los Al,etc would close within 60 days because they would be unable to pay purses.  All of those cheap horse have to go somewhere and since many them can\'t compete anywhere else a few thousand would have to be put down.

Therein lies the problem.   You can say that without the bots more players would be attracted to the sport.  Not with an average takeoput of 21% they wouldn\'t, not to mention the fact that we have already lost 1-2 generations of gamblers.  There isn\'t anything you could to get large numbers of 18-30 years that have never bet horses to take up the game.  Maybe, just maybe if you lowered the takeout to 10%, which neither the tracks nor the horsemen would support, you could get the generation behind the 18-30 group back to the game.  Maybe.

To borrow from Churchill \"there\'s nothing worse than having CAW players in the pools except for not having them at all.\"
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: Computer-Robotic Wagering
November 19, 2015, 08:41:50 PM
I have already posted some of what the public gets wrong.

1) CAW teams don\'t have direct tote access.  They bet through an ADW like everyone else.

2)  There is no such thing as a \"hidden\" tote feed that lists tri or super probables.

3)  All of these teams are very thoroughly vetted by the big track groups (i.e CDI, Stronach Group & NYRA).

4)  These aren\'t the guys that take down big Pk 6 pools.  I don\'t know of any that even play that wager.

The \'advantage\' that some of these teams have comes down to intellect, hard work and capitalization.  The teams are almost always comprised of PHD mathematicians that have spent years of time and seven figures of capital to develop wagering tools, which at the end of the day is all they have.   I would think sheet players would welcomee the liquidity they add to the pools.  You all have a tremendous advantage in certain situations relative to the teams.  

I know these things because I am in a position to know and don\'t want to elaborate any more than that.
#3
Ask the Experts / Re: Computer-Robotic Wagering
November 19, 2015, 04:16:48 PM
JB,

They do NOT have any direct access to the tote.  All CAW players wager through licensed account wagering companies who push those bets to their individual tote provider.  Virtually all the major U.S. ADWs have CAW players.  So do a number of foreign ones.

As far as tracks identifying who these groups are, most of them have individual TRA codes, different from the ADW\'s TRA code, so tracks know exactly who they are. Virtually all of them go through background checks that very few players could pass from firms like Kroll.  The approval process can take as long as six months to a year at the larger tracks.

Most of what has been written or posted about how they operate is at best half true or in most instances flat-out wrong and I would be in a position to know.

GC

P.S.  Long time lurker first-time poster, I love the figure making and handicapping discussions your customers generate.  I\'m not being sarcastic.