Romans’ last “best horse I’ve ever trained” broke his maiden at Ellis Park.

Not This Time

My Suggestions:

Listen to At The Races with Steve and you\'ll get the verbal version of a clocker report for the Derby.  He will frequently have Welsh and Gary Young on over the next two weeks.  The benefit is you get the opinions of top clockers who\'ve seen these horses train for the past year in most cases.  Supplement with the Twinspires/CD daily videos and listen to some of the comments there. You\'ll have the Derby more than covered from these alone.

For undercard races DRF will likely have the most comprehensive resource and can be really valuable for multi race horse players.

If the Derby is a day where your personal handle is high you might want to be cautious with how you incorporate into your play if you\'ve never used them before.  Generally speaking, I try not to let them negatively influence my opinion but will use them to solidify and upgrade opinions.  

As an example, Game Winner and Tacitus are notoriously average/bad work horses.  Don\'t expect to be dazzled by either.

This is likely due to the BCBC.

Players are betting higher than normal amounts into double pools because of contest rules.  Obviously, they’re doing it inefficiently.

I\'m not sure a true rabbit will hurt his chances.  He\'s been very forward in the last two because of the conditions and he was on the lead in the SA Derby because there was no other speed in the race.

I\'m in the camp that might argue he\'s won the last two despite the conditions, not because of them.  A fast track with a target like Promises Fulfilled likely produces his best performance to date assuming he comes out of the last in good order.

Lanerie\'s ride on LAL was IDENTICAL to his ride on Cherry Wine last year in the Preakness. Similar result.

Honest question about PW.

That big jump is first time around 2 turns. She\'s clearly not a 5.5F horse. Doesn\'t that have to factor into your assessment?

I\'d much rather take my chance on her compared to Miss Sky Warrior. Breen\'s stats at CD are bad at best. 2/3 of his runners X at CD. Off a big new top, seems almost a certainty for this one.

Brisnet has it as Fast. So he wasn\'t included in that stat.

Based on the current 20 - Record on OFF track = 10-5-4-0 and no horse has more than one race over an Off track.

Irap finished 4th in a sloppy MSW race at SA.

Danza and Revolutionary didn\'t run those tops at GP.

Materiality did and went from a -2 in the Florida Derby to a 2 in KY.

Apologies - Updated.  

Still falls into the categories of Top at GP and last race at AQU.

Looking at his runners who have >3 point new top earned in their Final prep:

Bandini - 19th (+7 Final Prep Top / -21 from Top in Derby)
Circular Quay - 6th (+3.25 Final Prep Top / -0.75 from Top in Derby)
Monba - 20th (+3.75 Final Prep Top / -21.75 from Top in Derby)
Devil May Care - 10th (+4 Final Prep Top / -5.5 from Top in Derby)
Charming Kitten - 9th (+4.5 Final Prep Top / -4 from Top in Derby)
Danza - 3rd (+3.75 Final Prep Top / +0 from Top in Derby)
Destin - 6th (+7.75 Final Prep Top / -2.75 from Top in Derby)

Breen doesn\'t have the best stats at CD. About 2/3 X.

Mandella, surprisingly, isn\'t great there either.

I went through the archives and created the following spreadsheet (link underlined below).  You\'re welcome to use and please let me know if you notice any errors.  The 2017 data comes from the TDN Top 20.

Pletcher Derby Results

Some Definitions:

TG Top Prior to Derby - Best TG Figure prior to Derby, no qualifiers applied

TG Top to Final Prep Delta - (Best TG Figure prior to final prep - TG Figure in final prep) = Thus a (-) means the Final TG Figure was slower

Delta Final Prep-Derby - (TG Figure from Final Prep - TG Figure in Derby) = Thus a (-) means the Derby TG Figure was slower

Delta TG Top - Derby - (TG Top - TG Figure in Derby) = Thus a (-) means the Derby TG Figure was slower than previous TG Top Figure

A couple of observations:

Horses that had their final Prep at AQU have performed poorly:

Keyed Entry - 20th (-18.75 from Top)
Any Given Saturday - 8th (0.25 from Top)
Gemologist - 16th (-12.5 from Top)
Verrazano - 14th (-8.5 from Top)
Outwork - 14th (-5.75 from Top)

This applies to Battalion Runner in 2017

Horses that produce their TOP TG Figure at GP perform poorly:

In spreadsheet these are denoted by GREEN color
*Trippi - 11th
Invisible Ink - 2nd
Limehouse - 4th
Keyed Entry - 20th
*Scat Daddy - 18th
*Dunkirk - 11th
*Devil May Care - 10th
*Stay Thirsty - 12th
*El Padrino - 13th
Verrazano - 14th
*Materiality - 6th
*Itsaknockout - 9th

This applies to Battalion Runner, Always Dreaming, Patch and Malagacy in 2017

Those with an * completed their final prep at GP.

Invisible Ink and Limehouse are noted outliers.  Which leads me to:

Horses that have a \"TG Top to Final Prep Delta\" that is -1 or lower (more negative) have actually performed relatively better in the Derby:

In spreadsheet these are denoted by darker coloring across line

Invisible Ink - 2nd
Limehouse - 4th
Bluegrass Cat - 2nd
*Keyed Entry - 20th
Join in the Dance - 7th
*Stay Thirsty - 12th
*Verrazano - 14th
Intense Holiday - 12th
Vinceramos - 17th
*Itsaknockout - 9th

The * indicates the final prep was at GP or AQU.  If you remove those, you\'re left with:

Invisible Ink - 2nd (Paired Top in Derby)
Limehouse - 4th (-2 from Top in Derby, but 0.5 improvement from final prep)
Bluegrass Cat - 2nd (Paired Top in Derby)
Join in the Dance - 7th (-2.5 from Top in Derby, paired final prep)
Intense Holiday - 12th (-3 from Top in Derby, -0.5 from final prep)
Vinceramos - 17th (-11.5 from Top in Derby, 0.25 improvement from final prep)

Tapwrit, Patch and Malagacy all fit this profile this year.  However, Patch was unraced at 2 and comes in off 3 lifetime preps and Malagacy has now raced twice at OP and hasn\'t gotten back to his GP figure.

That leaves Tapwrit.  I realize, the sample size is small but it seems that Tapwrit has a decent shot to get back to his Top and is almost certain to run a better figure than his Bluegrass effort.  He\'s the only Pletcher horse I will use and if he trains well at CD I\'ll be using him heavily.

The BSF for Hence in the Sunland Derby has been updated:93 to 97 now

I thought about waiting for the Preakness as well.  The reality is the owners are faced with the following financial decision (based on 2016):

Kentucky Derby: Supplement $200K + Entry $25K + Starting Fee $25K = $250K
Purse: $1.6M, $400K, $200K, 100K, $60K

Preakness: Supplement $150K + Entry $15K + Starting Fee $15K = $180K
Purse: $900K, $300K, $165, $90K, $45K

If this was purely a decision based on the financial outcome, you have to finish in the Top 2 in order to not lose money.  If they supplement to the Ky Derby there\'s no additional supplement fee to the other Triple Crown races.