Another heavy favorite scratched - Precise. Seems to be the same reason as Sovereignty as she ran a fever and did not eat her feed.

Could not find the reason why, but Nysos is scratched out of the Pacific Classic.

Shanahan pretty much summed it up perfectly (at least according to the stewards) - From the NYRA Saratoga site:

Stewards\' Decision for Race 9 on 8/7/2025
In the 9th race at Saratoga on 08/07/2025 there was a Stewards Inquiry into the winner #9 Stars and Strides, ridden by Junior Alvarado and #5 Insubordination (IRE), placed ninth, ridden by Javier Castellano. There was also a Trainer’s objection from #2 Griffin’s Wharf, placed second, ridden by John Velazquez, onto the winner #9 Stars and Strides.

After viewing the replay and questioning riders involved, the Stewards determined that the improving Stars and Strides drifted left into the path of a weakening #5 Insubordination (IRE), causing the rider to have to take a check on the rail, but the stewards did not feel this incident cost #5 Insubordination (IRE) an opportunity of a better placing.

After reviewing the Trainers objection, the Stewards determined that #9 Stars and Strides had an established running path, when Griffin’s Wharf continued to improve past horses, causing the rider to have to switch right around Stars and Strides to continue its run to the wire. Regarding both instances, the placings remained unaltered.

Totally agree with the comments on takeout of the late P5 and all the P4 bets in CA. The late P5 takeout at nearly 24% (23.68% to be exact) is almost 10% higher than the early P5 takeout (14%). It is hard enough to hit a P5 as it is, but if you hit the late P5, they keep almost 1/4 of the pool. The $3 late P3 and the $5 late DD both have 15% juice, while the WPS are a bit over 15% (15.43%). The rolling DD is 20% and everything else is either 22.68% (exactas) or 23.68% (any bet not mentioned). By contrast, Saratoga has a 15% takeout on all P5 and P6 wagers, a similar 16% on WPS, a lower exacta and DD take out generally at 18.5%, but that jumps up to 24% on trifecta, superfecta, grand slam, P3 and P4 bets.

I have not delved into the PP much yet, but as far as Dmr 7 is concerned opening day, I agree that Druliner will go off lower than 5/1 - 3/1 or 7/2 might be about right. Add in that Lewis hits at 28% second time out and the horse will likely break better here, I think she is a solid selection. Nothing too compelling about Big Coin, but the outer posts often fair well at Dmr in sprints - she is in post 10. Trainer Rafeal DeLeon has started just two firsters at Dmr in the past five years and one of them won. Don’t like the gap in works though and she has only four relatively recent works coming into this race at Los Al, but most have been quick. Maybe she is worth a flyer in the field of Cal bred 2YO at a morning line of 20/1.

In the Oceanside, the pace looks very contentious and arguably Iron Man Cal will benefit from that. I hate to chalk out, but he looks best. Hs last race was against a very good group. Both Zulu Kingdom and Test Score came back and won G1 events since American Turf on Derby Day. I had a similar idea to Fairmount’s where I also was interested in a 15/1 shot out of the Cinema and I thought Incanto might be a decent price play getting a pocket trip behind some dueling leaders and perhaps getting first jump on the closers, which he will have to do as he has not shown that much late pop as he looks like more a grinder type.

I think the question has evolved somewhat and has been misinterpreted. Perhaps it was confusing the way I asked it as I gave some options. The original question simply put was this:

“…if you are still live on a P5 ticket do you start another multi-race sequence?”

For instance, if you bet the P5 today at Saratoga and hit the first two races, are you going to start another P5 in race 3?

Thanks for the response. The question was not so much do you hedge, but do you press your opinions in the next set of P5 races if you are already alive in the first set with a race or two to go?

I have a question for multi-race bettors out there regarding bankroll management. I am curious to know your thoughts on how you approach situations like the following. Assume for this exercise that for the given race card, you have no particularly strong opinons you want to press and that there are not any especially troublesome races you want to avoid. If you have opinions on those situations, I would love to hear that as well, but I suspect in those instances the answers would revolve around trying to leverage your strong opinions and then trying to avoid the troublesome races.

This situation comes up on those big race days and now it seems that Saratoga is set on offering multiple P5 and P4 wagering opportunities each day. It also comes during the middle of the week for P5 bettors at tracks that have both an early and late P5 but have less than 10 races where the P5’s have common races. It was especially prevalent now at Saratoga, given they seem to have a P5 starting pretty much even odd race except when the P6 needs to start.

My question is basically this - if you are still live on a P5 ticket do you start another multi-race sequence?

For instance, let’s say you bet the early P5 at Saratoga today and hit the first winner, would you roll the same horses into a P4, our use different horses in some combination, or just pass on that wager assuming you have no new information or opinions?

Let’s say you now hit race 2, do you play the P5 starting in race 3 with the same horses you have in the last three legs of the P5 you started in the first race or perhaps throw in some different combinations or again, skip the bet and be satisfied with potentially hitting the first P5 if you connect on the last couple of races?

Any thoughts or input would be much appreciated…

I did not receive mine either, so I just redid my email on their ad from the main page and it worked fine.

Here are the trainer stats from the recent Belmont at Saratoga meet by number of starters. To be fair, Asmussen only had two runners and managed a third place finish from that. Chad had the most winners, Mott won the most money

William I. Mott - 30 - 4 - 5 - 5
Chad C. Brown - 28 - 5 - 7 - 3
Todd A. Pletcher - 25 - 3 - 2 - 3
Linda Rice - 19 - 2 - 3 - 2
Miguel Clement - 14 - 3 - 1 - 3
Mark E. Casse - 14 - 3 - 6 - 1
Michael J. Maker - 12 - 1 - 1 - 1
Brad H. Cox - 11 - 2 - 2 - 1
Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. - 10 - 1 - 1 - 0
Rudy R. Rodriguez - 10 - 1 - 1 - 0
Ilkay Kantarmaci - 10 - 1 - 1 - 2
Wesley A. Ward - 9 - 3 - 2 - 1
George Weaver - 8 - 1 - 2 - 1
Thomas Morley - 8 - 2 - 0 - 2
Horacio De Paz - 8 - 0 - 1 - 1
David G. Donk - 8 - 0 - 0 - 1
Cherie DeVaux - 7 - 1 - 1 - 1
Claude R. McGaughey III - 7 - 1 - 1 - 1
Jorge R. Abreu - 7 - 2 - 0 - 2
Fernando Abreu - 7 - 0 - 1 - 3
Jena M. Antonucci - 7 - 0 - 0 - 1
James W. Ferraro - 6 - 0 - 1 - 0
Amelia J. Green - 6 - 0 - 0 - 2
H. Graham Motion - 5 - 0 - 3 - 0
Brendan P. Walsh - 5 - 1 - 0 - 1
Mark A. Hennig - 5 - 1 - 0 - 0
Melanie Giddings - 5 - 1 - 2 - 0
Raymond Handal - 5 - 0 - 1 - 0
Antonio Arriaga - 5 - 0 - 0 - 0
Rob Atras - 4 - 1 - 1 - 1
Jose Francisco D\'Angelo - 4 - 0 - 1 - 1
Danny Gargan - 4 - 0 - 1 - 1
Jose M. Jimenez - 4 - 0 - 0 - 0
Eduardo E. Jones - 4 - 0 - 0 - 0
Michael W. McCarthy - 3 - 0 - 2 - 0
Bob Baffert - 3 - 0 - 1 - 0
William Walden - 3 - 2 - 0 - 0
Gustavo Rodriguez - 3 - 1 - 0 - 0
James T. Ryerson - 3 - 1 - 0 - 0
H. James Bond - 3 - 1 - 0 - 1
Philip M. Serpe - 3 - 0 - 0 - 1
Barclay Tagg - 3 - 0 - 0 - 1
Wayne Potts - 3 - 0 - 0 - 1
Thomas F. Proctor - 3 - 0 - 0 - 1
John P. Terranova II - 3 - 0 - 0 - 0
Chris J. Englehart - 3 - 0 - 0 - 0
Adrianne DeVaux - 3 - 0 - 0 - 0
Michelle Giangiulio - 3 - 0 - 0 - 0
David P. Duggan - 3 - 0 - 0 - 0
Domenick L. Schettino - 2 - 1 - 0 - 1
Jack Fisher - 2 - 1 - 0 - 1
Joseph R. Lee - 2 - 1 - 0 - 1
Larry Rivelli - 2 - 1 - 0 - 0
Anthony W. Dutrow - 2 - 1 - 1 - 0
John C. Servis - 2 - 1 - 0 - 0
Michael J. Trombetta - 2 - 0 - 1 - 0
Brian A. Lynch - 2 - 0 - 0 - 1
Norm W. Casse - 2 - 1 - 0 - 1
Joe Sharp - 2 - 1 - 0 - 0
Robert N. Falcone, Jr. - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Neil R. Morris - 2 - 0 - 1 - 0
Carlos F. Martin - 2 - 0 - 1 - 0
Steven M. Asmussen - 2 - 0 - 0 - 1
Philip Antonacci - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Joseph F. Orseno - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Charlton Baker - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Lolita Shivmangal - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Douglas J. Seyler - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
John S. Pregman, Jr. - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Mitchell E. Friedman - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Bruce N. Levine - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Robert E. Reid, Jr. - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Richard Metivier - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Oscar S. Barrera III - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Gary Sciacca - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Eduardo Caramori - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0
Doug F. O\'Neill - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0
Richard Baltas - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0
Derek S. Ryan - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0
John A. Shirreffs - 1 - 0 - 0 - 1
Jorge Delgado - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0
Rodolphe Brisset - 1 - 0 - 1 - 0
Panagiotis A. Synnefias - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0
Edward T. Allard - 1 - 0 - 0 - 1
Chad Summers - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0
Gregory D. Sacco - 1 - 0 - 0 - 1
Jamie Osborne - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0
Norman C. Follett - 1 - 0 - 0 - 1
Gary C. Contessa - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0
John T. Kirby - 1 - 0 - 1 - 0
Gina Giglio - 1 - 0 - 1 - 0
Dale L. Romans - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0
Eddie Kenneally - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0
James Bentley Begg - 1 - 0 - 1 - 0
John J. Robb - 1 - 0 - 0 - 1
Henk Grewe - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0
Thomas M. Amoss - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0
James J. Toner - 1 - 0 - 0 - 1
Thomas Garner - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0
Chasey Deville Pomier - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0

$2 BES-Preakness Will Pays
1. 71.20
2. 15.00
3. 245.60
4. 320.00
5. 705.40
6. 71.20
7. 126.40
8. 55.00
9. 292.60

Per DRF... \"Journalism is alive and well and going to the Preakness.\"

I get it that the trainer should know best, but just to offer a little fact - 12 of the last 25 horses that attempted the Derby-Preakness double won the Preakness and many that did not win finished in the money. Did it help Rich Strike skipped the Preakness? OK, it does not seem much would have helped that horse, but they missed an opportunity to run an apparently sharp horse in G1 race. Part of the reason for the two prep season is to keep the horse fresh for the Derby for peak performance and in return, that theoretically makes that two week turnaround possible. While I agree the Saratoga Belmont would put an asterisk on the Triple Crown, in my mind, they are statistically skipping about a 50/50 shot at being one race from horse racing immortality.

I think he has had 8 starters - he is 8-1-1-4-1 - pretty good record even if the one win was by DQ.

$2 Oaks-Derby DD Will Pays (Again, these are $2 payoffs - not official but should be close)
1. 118.02
2. 481.00
3. 118.40
4. scratched
5. 163.68
6. 340.84
7. 66.98
8. 14.86
9. 75.12
10. scratched
11. 469.06
12. 155.52
13. 172.38
14. 139.18
15. 537.74
16. 212.04
17. 61.32
18. 31.56
19. 328.68
20. 560.38
21. 64.96

Thanks every who has made this an interesting thread - here are some of my thoughts. It is way too longand I probbaly tossed all of the winners, but I enjoy doing this type of research. So here are my thoughts a little less than a week out. It is not perfect and has some errors I am sure. Plus, I would not be surprised to see my thoughts change in the intervening time.

1-Citizen Bull-20 - liked his draw the least, but so will the rest of the world. Not sure if I heard anyone mention his name except when they were spitting it up out of their mouth- he is not getting any love it seems. Yes, his SA Derby was awful, but it may lead people to the conclusion that he was never that good in the first place and was able to take advantage of soft trips. The short answer is that maybe he is, but… His sheet looks eerily similar to Mandaloun, who regressed for no apparent reason in his last prep - then ran well enough to earn the victory via DQ of Medina Spirit while running a 1 in the Derby. I expected a move forward last time off a paired 3YO top but instead saw regression. The good news is that Baffert seems to be better when not coming in off a new top, but he also seems to do his best work with three preps, not two. Perhaps to make up for that, Baffert put three stiff works into him in 11 days - I do not ever remember him doing that and shipped him kind of late. That makes me wonder about betamethasone positives, suspensions, lessons learned, and revenge may be best served cold in a shade over 2 minutes. Going to use if his price holds as there are too many questions I cannot answer.
2-Neoequos-30 - outside of losing his rider in debut, has never been out of the money. Although his connections contend, he does not need the lead, he will likely chase the early pace but does not seem fast enough overall. He paired his last two and that pattern has a better chance of improving historically, but he needs to move forward a bunch. Oddly a couple of weeks ago, my offshore book had him posted at 300/1 - I grabbed a very small piece of that instead of buying a coffee. Despite that bet, I am not going to use.
3-Final Gambit-30 - has been DEAD last early in three of his four starts. His first call position has been 11th, 11th, and 12th - all over surfaces not named dirt. Ideally, he is going to fall back and likely hit the rail before the first turn after most everyone else has cleared. Yes, he is going to have to steer through most of the field late to get a piece. Now, he has to answer questions about surface, kickback, class and whether he is fast enough. The lore of CD is that the surface is kind to horses with turfy action. Strangely, I think he will be bet fairly hard, especially underneath off his sub 12 second final 1/8 at TP. That may make him an underlay in those pools. After Rich Strike, it’s hard to dismiss any of these types of horses but he has developed a bunch and is still too slow. If there is a pace meltdown, I may regret this decision, but I likely will not use.
4-Rodriguez-12 - this is the one that confuses me the most. He was apparently considered to be on Baffert’s B team seemingly capitulating to his higher ranked stabemates until he got a solo show of his own and blitzed a somewhat weak Wood field with soft fractions on the front end over perhaps over a strip that favored his style. My Mitole ran Sunday against Cornucopian and finished a neck back after getting beat by 44 lengths in the Wood. It is tough to draw any conclusions about that race as it was a three horse field as they finished second and third. I am not sure if it is an indictment of Cornucopian or how much it flatters Rodriquez - maybe a bit of both. His last race puts him in the area code, but he has had some development since his 2YO season and it does not seem like the conditions favor him here. I HATE passing on a Baffert horse, especially on his return to CD, but I say, no Beuno to senor Rodriguez.
5-American Promise-30 - I am sure most anyone reading this will agree that the two most volatile trainers out there are Lukas and McPeek. Both are fully capable of having their charges fall off the face of the earth in a single race, only to run huge the next out. They are not the most consistent trainers, but on the right day, look out. The problem is that most of us will pull our hair out trying to guess the right day. He ran huge in the Virgina Derby. Hard to evaluate as it was a one turn 9f effort aided by a track that was as fast as a highway (they set numerous track and stakes records that weekend). There is always some educated guess work that goes into making the numbers I am sure, the question is not so much was this an accurate figure as it likely is the best estimate of that effort, but the real question is how likely is it going to be repeated? At this point it l represents a ton of development for me and I make those chances very small. Plus, I do not think the pace dynamics work in his favor either. I am betting he does not come close to repeating that last race. I will not use.
6-Admire Daytona-30 - imports always a tough call and those “enhanced” foreign PP for the Japanese horses does not add much to solving the puzzle. They only time he showed speed was in the UAE Derby and they did not expect him to be on the front end. This one seems like a cut below Luxor Café and both seem a cut below Forever Young. His numbers seem middling and I am not inclined to use here.
7-Luxor Café-15 - this one might be the more serious of the imports. The Japanese horses have not come in this late before and he had not travelled to the desert first, so maybe he will be a fresher animal. Based on everything I have seen, he is not quite on par with Forever Young, but that one has turned out to be a good one, so those are big expectations to live up to. The quality Luxor Café beat in his last is suspect, but it was visually impressive. His last 1/8 in his most recent effort was rumored to be sub 12:00. Another positive note is that a couple of horses he beat previously ran well in Dubai. I find it interesting that he has been favored in every race he has run and he has always been less than 2/1 - four times he was odds on. Looking at the Equibase improved PPs. He has made up lengths in the stretch in every race except his debut. He looks like a stalker and could get first run on the closers. His one number gives him a legit shot if he improves, but that may be asking a bit much with the ship. I also suspect he will get some wagering dollars thrown at him. I likely will not use, even as a saver unless something comes down later in the week with more information to help sway me towards the cover side as it would be nice to see him put in a stiff work over the track. But his numbers on other services like Timeform US I see are in agreement with these to some extent - they just not good enough without improvement.
8-Journalism-3 - regressed in the SA Derby in a race he did not have to win. Seems like the long stretch at CD will help him some as his acceleration has been most pronounced on the straight away. His numbers match up well against the entire field and he seems like he has the right running style where he should be able to track the leaders and then deal his opponents that punishing late kick. On paper, he is one of the fastest closers. If he can stay relatively close, and gets a head start on the deep closers who are not any faster, he will be tough to run down late. There are not too many negatives for this one, except for the price. He is bred for this trip as well as any in the race and has been working smartly over the CD strip. While his last figure was technically an “Off”, there are only four other horses that figures faster than that one in the field. Given that he did not have to win that last race as this was the ultimate goal, I expect him to improve off that last effort. If he does, he will be very difficult to beat. He is my top choice at this point in time - by far.
9-Burnham Square-12 - he is coming in off a new top after pairing his last two, this may be a bit too much in terms of development and perhaps he fired one race too early. The number was good though and repeat of that puts him seriously in the mix. I’ve always thought that it is ill advised to assume a young horse is going to go backwards when he has never done that before. I think he is going to be in that middle pack and he can close. His last number fits with these but that was a move forward and not sure if he can move forward again, let alone repeat off a 25 day break. This is the type of horse that I often toss and then it comes back to bite me in the butt. At double digit odds I am going to use to some extent up and down as I don’t want him to beat me.
10-Grande-20. - I have always been a sucker for lightly raced horses. He took a significant jump last time off of paired tops getting a trip aided number that measures up very well against this field. The thing is he really did not make up much ground on the winner late and I was not impressed with Rodriguez in the first place. I know many people use a standard of less than 13 seconds for the final eighth of a mile as a gauge of a Kentucky Derby horse who may be able to finish out the race competitively, but looking back at the wood, eight of the ten horses finished in less than 13 seconds and half of them went in less than 12.5 seconds. If the entire field is doing that, I am not impressed. I have not looked at Pletcher too closely recently in the Derby, but I seem to remember that he was generally better off on short rest rather than four weeks or longer going into this race. Given Grande is by Curlin, I would not be surprised to see him blossom as the year goes by, but I am not inclined to use this one as I do not think he will be able to repeat that number. Plus, it has been a long time since the Wood had any significance in this race as I believe that out of 40+ starters from the Wood since 2003 where it produced the Kentucky Derby exacta, only one horse managed to make it into the money (Tacitus). He also has a couple of other negative stats working against him as he has just three lifetime starts and did not race as a 2YO. Yes, there have been a couple of winners this decade that broke that mold, but those types of horses have been few and far between. Not using.
11-Flying Mohawk-30 - he is reportedly working well over the CD strip but has never run in the afternoon on the dirt. He passed a few horses late in the J.R. Steaks but still lost lengths to winner. He was a full 0.6 seconds slower in the stretch than Final Gambit and lost to him by over three lengths and I am not suing that one. He is too slow relatively to these, but then again, so was Rich Strike. Lightning does strike more than one time in the same place, heck it hits the Empire State Building an average of 25 times a year, but will it “Rich Strike” in this year’s Derby? I am not betting on it.
12-East Avenue-20 - when evaluating horses in the Derby, try to imagine what is their path to success and see if they line up favorably with other horses that won or ran well in the Derby. I really could not find a similar sheet, but there is a world where East Avenue grabs the early lead and keeps going. No, it is not the most likely scenario but it is not an unreasonable assumption for this given set of data. I did a fairly thorough pace analysis and came to the conclusion that while there are many possible outcomes, the most likely scenario was East Avenue running about a 23.1 and 46.7 while on the lead. That is almost exactly what Medina Spirit ran in the Kentucky Derby. Given that he paired his 3YO top in his last, he could move forward here. There is a better chance the pace is contentious and the Derby pace is always hard to predict, but I will use him very sparingly and maybe grab a small piece underneath as I think that he is one of the pace setters most likely to hang on for a piece.
13-Publisher-20 - he is still a maiden but has run fairly well in multiple preps. He is coming in off of a new top and like many of the closers in the Arkansas Derby got the perfect setup. One of the things that has bothered me about all those preps in Arkansas is that the come home times have been relatively slow and generally there are some of the faster ones in the Kentucky Derby field. He has run early at CD in the past but his best races have come at OP. Sometimes those don\'t transfer well to other tracks. He has been behind a number of these previously and a few multiple times. Like a number of the horses that clothes I could see people using him on the bottom all the exotics but I\'m not going to touch him as I think his come home times have been too slow for OP. In fact, I am likely dismissing all of the entrance that took an Arkansas path this year.
14-Tiztastic-20 - he made a living from minor placements in a number of preps before breaking through and winning the Louisiana Derby. He came home fairly well late. He is yet another horse that is slow early and picks it up late. Based on his pattern, a forward move was expected after a pair, so the question is what happens today. He gets bonus points for winning almost at this distance but I suspect he will be relegated to minor awards at best. Probably not using much, if at all.
15-Render Judgment-30 - this one was a bit of a surprise entry to most and for good reason. He is another one of those horses that has a decent pattern of having paired his last two, but they are slow compared to the rest of the field. After breaking his maiden in his second start he has steadily improved. One of the problems I\'ve seen so far is that there\'s evidence that at least with this caliber of competition, he is too slow early to compete with the front runners and to slow late to compete with the light runners so I\'m not sure where that puts him in the field but certainly does not put him on any of my tickets.
16-Coal Battle-30 - great human interest story but there are many others who are faster than him in this field. He certainly fits right in the middle and sometimes shows speed and sometimes comes from off the pace so from that standpoint he has some versatility period he also has danced pretty much all of the dances since his debut having made 8 lifetime starts. While he\'s only had three preps this year he\'s had every one of those races within a 50 day window. This may be taking its toll on him as he regressed some last out - is he over the top? This one has earned over $1,000,000 which is five times higher than the trainer\'s next highest earning horse. I don\'t think he suited to this distance and it seems like he\'s a little off his game. I am not going to use him and none of his races were very fast.
17-Sandman-6 - got the perfect setup in his last race and made good on the fast pace closing up to win I have a couple of problems though with that race. First, I have not been impressed with the quality of horses coming out of Arkansas. That\'s could be a misguided judgment though for a variety of reasons as the Arkansas contingent handled the Baffert invaders with aplomb. Once Tiztastic left the state, all he did was win the Arkansas Derby. Madaket Road did better in the in the state than he did in Florida though, so the verdict is not yet out. Second, Sandman earned a good number for the last race, but it was a huge improvement over his next highest number figure and I really don\'t see him circling back to that number for a while. None of his previous numbers are good enough to win this. one for a while. If the pace comes out more contentious than I thought I could be closing late. If anyone pays attention to Jon White’s Derby Strike System, he is the only horse besides Journalism to have the optimal 0 strikes. He has a key third place finish in the Street Sense as a 2YO at CD - that race produced three Kentucky Derby starters in Sovereignty and Tiztastic as well. Plus, his overall record at CD is weak, so there is a question on how well he likes the track. Finally, he is goofy by all get out as Tapits sometimes are. He has loads of talent but can never seem to run straight. In his last win, he was all over the stretch and looking around. He will not have the luxury to be able to do that against 19 other foes. For class awards, I would vote him as the most likely horse to get taken down. You have to take a stand somewhere and I am likely not going to use him as I expect the 150,000 or so crowd members to make it difficult on him.
18-Sovereignty-5 - I was a bit surprised he was installed as the second favorite this low, but I do think he\'s likely the second best horse in the race. I would much rather have this one than Sandman even to cost me a tick or two in terms of price though. As we get further and further outside it does start too make the job of each one of these a little more difficult but in the past few years we\'ve had a number of winners from post this far out, so I\'m not going to worry about it too much and hopefully I get my fair compensation for having to start closer to the outer rail than the inner rail. I thought he looked great running down River Thames in the Fountain of Youth and unlike the Wood where it seemed everybody was closing late, he was the only one on the engine. I thought he was one of the bigger losers with the post position draw because there\'s not a lot of speed inside of him and he may have to drop back further than he\'s use to or show a bit more early speed to get better position as I suspect 5 out of the seven horses to his immediate inside want to run a similar race that would fit him. He has junior back, a key win over this track, paired quick figures with reasonable development, and great acceleration. He is the second most likely winner in my opinion. I will use him as my secondary selection.
19-Chunk of Gold-30 - could have paid for this one with a check out of my checking account - $2500 is a bargain price for a Kentucky Derby starter. He has rolled nothing but snake eyes since winning his maiden as he has finished second three more times. The trainer was a bit disappointed with the fact that he was as close to the pace as he was last time and they likely will drop him farther back and try to make one late run. While he\'s on the slow side he has paired up his tops and will likely move forward here with a good trip. That may be a bit more difficult from this outermost post. He has only had four lifetime starts - that has not been a recipe for success. Since 1937, horses starting in the Kentucky Derby with 4 lifetime starts are 51-1-4-7. Not the recipe for success I would be hoping for. Still, he has run well enough for me to sprinkle lightly in the lower exotics as he will likely be a forgotten horse and offer some value.
20-Owen Almighty-30 - these on again, off again decisions often don\'t result in the best outcomes for the horse I cannot blame the connections as I would be here if I owned him. From a just raw percentage standpoint you have a one in 20 chance of basically horse racing immortality. You need to take those shots when they come up and you just have to pray the horse comes out of it OK. That being said, he is the worst bread horse for this distance in the field. The average winning distance of his sire as 6.6 and his damn sire is even less at 6.5. As far as I\'m concerned, he is already outrun his pedigree, but I expect that to stop here. Drawing the 20 hole does not help but many of the horses to his immediate left are going to be slower than him out of the gate and while they may not have to gun him for the lead early, they will have to use some of his natural speed to gain positions so he doesn\'t go too wide in the first turn. I don\'t expect him to finish this race with any type of enthusiasm and in my mind, the most likely to pull-up. I am not using.
AE-Baeza-12 - this one might be the most polarizing horse in the field. If he makes it into the body of the race, he will end up with the worst post but again horses have overcome that draw in the past. In some ways, he was less than a length behind journalism and will be probably three times the odds on a developing horse. On the other hand, it seems like it might be too much too soon. I\'m not going to think about him too hard until he draws in and from a selfish standpoint, I hope he doesn\'t as then I don\'t have to worry about him. Should he be in the field? Absolutely based on his strong performance in the Santa Anita Derby. I suspect he\'ll be some sort of use if he draws in but will not make the top shelf.