JB, thanks again for doing the Belmont seminar on such short notice. It is an excellent presentation. Good Luck everyone!

Thank you!

Understood. Even an abbreviated version would be appreciated and worth it!

Loved the Derby seminar the last two years. Thanks for considering the Belmont.

Is there going to be a Belmont seminar?  TIA

Another way is to divide the daily double will pay for the favorite of the race to equal his approximate morning live odds. So, divide $86.60 double will pay for AP by 100 to get to his approximate 4/5 morning line odds. Then divide the will pays for all the other horse\'s will pays by 100. So, for example, Divining Rod\'s $366 divided by 100 equals 3.66-1. He took a lot of action compared to his morning line odds of 12-1.

Miff, thanks for the daily double will pays.

 Note: This post was edited on 05-16-15 @ 6.25a.m. because of error in my methodology for the calculation. Sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. Thanks to jbaugh66 for his post that alerted me to check my figures.

 Odds based on the daily double will pays:
 1. American Pharoah 1.64
 2. Dortmund 4.87
 3. Mr. Z 31.43
 4. Danzig Moon 14.47
 5. Tale of Verve 47.65
 6. Bodhisattva 56.02
 7. Divining Rod 10.18
 8. Firing Line 3.76

How I did the calculation for odds on daily double will pays:
1. Daily double will pay for American Pharoah: $86.60
2. Price of the first leg winner (Keen Pauline): $32.80
3. $86.60 – 32.80 = $53.80
4. $53.80 / $32.80 = 1.64

I repeated this for each horse.  

Please let me know if I made an error in my methodology for the calculation. TIA


 It appears like American Pharoah was not bet in the daily double and Divining Rod took some money.

Miff, thanks for the daily double will pays.

Note: This post was edited on 05-16-15 @ 6.25a.m. because of error in my methodology for the calculation. Sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. Thanks to jbaugh66 for his post that alerted me to check my figures.

Odds based on the daily double will pays:
1. American Pharoah  1.64
2. Dortmund  4.87
3. Mr. Z  31.43
4. Danzig Moon  14.47
5. Tale of Verve  47.65
6. Bodhisattva  56.02
7. Divining Rod  10.18
8. Firing Line  3.76

It appears like American Pharoah was not bet in the daily double and Divining Rod took some money.

My thoughts after reading this thread and others on this excellent site: If AP loses the Preakness, there goes all the value on the Belmont. So, I am thinking of using use half of my allotted Preakness/ Belmont bankroll betting against AP in the Preakness. If AP wins, I use the other half to bet against an extreme AP underlay in the Belmont. Only other option for me is not to bet the Preakness and hope AP wins and then use the entire bankroll as a bet against AP in the Belmont. Your thoughts and how are you betting it?

Looking at the sheets for Upstart His TGI figure for less than 1M is 13.1 and for 1M and over is 14. Does this mean the mile and a quarter istance could be a question?  Any pedigree experts care to share their thoughts? TIA

FWIW. I had a spreadsheet with much more detail but I could not figure out how to copy and past it to make it readable.  Here is an abbreviated copy that I manually re-typed in.  

Note that Mubtaahij, Firing Line and Frosted are the only horses that are bet at or below their morning line odds.  I know that the M/L is subjective but I am only trying to identify horses that were being bet more than their M/L.

Parenthesis represent horses odds calculated from daily double will pays.

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (121.51-1) and 2.43 > M/L Odds
2. Carpe Diem  (11.48-1) and 1.43 > M/L Odds
3. Materiality (15.11-1) and 1.26 > M/L Odd
4. Tencendur (88.10-1) and 2.94 > M/L Odds
5. Danzig Moon 48.10-1 and 1.60 > M/L Odds
6. Mubtaahij 14.11-1 and 0.71 < M/L Odds
7. El Kabir
8. Dortmund 4.56-1 and 1.52  > M/L Odds
9. Bolo 49.53-1 and 1.65  > M/L Odds
10.Firing Line 12.03-1 and 1.00 =  M/L Odds
11.Stanford
12.InternationalStar 25.75-1 and 1.29  > M/L Odds
13.Itsaknockout 106.05-1 and 3.54  > M/L Odds
14.Keen Ice 104.60-1 and 2.09  > M/L Odds
15.Frosted 10.82-1 and 0.72 < M/L Odds
16.War Story 112.21-1 and 2.24 > M/L Odds
17.Mr. Z 133.42-1 and 2.67 > M/L Odds
18.American Pharoah 2.89-1 and 1.16  > M/L Odds
19.Upstart 19.32 and 1.29  > M/L Odds
20.Far Right 56.86-1 and 1.90  > M/L Odds
21.Frammento 209.97-1 and 4.20 > M/L Odds

Sekrah, thank you for time you spent and the details.

Sekrah, thanks for your insight. Do you have or can you come up with an objective methodology to adjust the TG figure for the pace?  TIA

P-Dub, my exact thoughts.  However, I think he will be closer to 15-1 based on DD will pays.

Congrats on your long shot from the seminar. Good luck tomorrow!