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Messages - TFUSfigs

#1
I don\'t know the history, but I can assure you that has nothing to do with me posting here.  I read here to see races from a different perspective, just as I\'ll check Beyer figures on occasion.  It was just one figure guy to another.  Marc has been nothing but professional with me.  People get wiser and change, no?

I completely understand about CC figure being tight, no disagreement from me.  I am a lot closer in mehtodololy to you than the other guy.

The timing I do is from the when the gate is completely open.  That is when I begin.  It is easy to pick out this exact spot for consistency.  I could do the same using the instant the gate first moves as well.  It doesn\'t really matter, as long as it is done the same way every time.  When I begin, the horses have barely moved, if at all.  Perhaps that is why my run up times are slower.

I don\'t know if the 63 feet that is reported is accurate, but I can tell that the gate is in the same spot within a few feet each time.  So again, doesn\'t really matter if the 63 feet is right.  It is consistent.

As for video being attached to a clock, that goes without saying of course.  Timing errors occur when something trips the beam early or it starts late, but I\'ve never seen anyone say the clock was not calibrated properly.  Possible I guess, but I really don\'t see it here.  If that were the case it would affect all races at Santa Anita, not just some.  Maybe I\'m misunderstanding something here.  For what it is worth, Trakus has the race timed .13 slower than the official time.  They do time from the gate as well but deduct run up distance and time.

As I\'m sure you know, Gulfstream uses Trakus now, not a teletimer, and there is an issue with mile races specifically. Even comparing multiple races on the same day can be a problem.  Like you, it doesn\'t matter much to me.  I treat those races separately.  All in all, Trakus is still a lot better than what they had in place.  It is that one specific distance that is a problem.

Anyway, thanks for letting me participate.  I\'m just a guy that loves talking racing and making figures.
#2
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So on one side we have Friedman once posting that
> Ragozin (Jake? Sherman?) figures are an \"objective
> measure of the resiliencey (sic) of the track\", on
> the other we have Miff saying \"zero science\" is
> involved.
>
> Below find the SA Derby as I did it. Put aside for
> a moment that (as I said at the time) we got the
> race about 3/5 slow, timed a couple of times by a
> couple different guys. Just look at the horses.
>
> We don\'t just make figures off the winners. If you
> make the race faster you are giving out a new top
> to the winner (who was clearly eased up, by the
> way), as well as a bunch of others behind him who
> this way get figures tight to their histories. In
> other words, to make it faster you would have to
> believe they all picked the same day to jump
> forward.
>
> Everything we do here is probability, and nothing
> is 100%. But this one is at least 85%.


I\'m not for one second questioning your figure for CC.  I agree with you and respect your work greatly.  I\'ve learned a lot reading this board over the years.

That said, there is no evidence the time of the SA Derby is off at all.  Using video editing software, it can be proven the race is timed exactly like every other 9f race at Santa Anita.  I use it to time from the gate.  The method is accurate to within a few hundredths.

I timed the last five Santa Anita Derbys.  The run up isn\'t very long at that distance, 63 feet.  The time of the run up (gate time minus official time) falls right where it always does for the race, between 3.15 and 3.35 seconds.  If this race is off, every race at that distance at Santa Anita is off.  This year\'s race was on the fast side before hitting the beam, 3.18, compared to 3.32 last year.  So, gate timing actually makes this race better than appears, not slower.  There is no evidence the race is mistimed, certainly not to to the tune of .60.  Frame by frame video doesn\'t lie, and as I said is precise to within a few hundredths.

2013 Gate Time: 1:52.08
2013 Official Time: 1:48.76
2013 Difference:  3.32

2014 Gate Time: 1:50.70
2014 Official Time:  1:47.52
2014 Difference:  3.18

I\'ll be happy to email you the other years if you are interested, but they all look the same.


On a separate note, what did you think of the timing of Gulfstream mile dirt races this year?  I personally think they were, and continue to be, wildly inaccurate.