That is the way that I always did it too.  The problem is that, using the resulting odds, one could dutch the field for an automatic profit.

It was pointed out to me, that I was, in effect, charging the track takeout for both legs.  I was told that if I divided the first leg payout by .82 (Pimlico win takeout = 18%) that my resulting odds would be much more representative of the true odds.

Once I started doing that I saw that dutching the field yielded a 16%-18% loss, which is more in line with reality.  I\'m still a tad off because the Daily Double takeout is always a tiny bit higher than Win takeout.

This was shown to me by a mostly drunk old dude who pretty much lived at the OTB.  He was always in need of 2 bucks for the bet that would get him back in the game, but he ironically  seemed to have a wealth of knowledge about the game and bankroll management.

I may not be figuring it right, but my win odds based on the double payoffs are quite a bit different from yours.  I have...

6-5  American Pharoah  (38%)
7-2  Dortmund (18%)
25-1 Mr. Z (3%)
11-1 Danzig Moon (6.5%)
39-1 Tale of Verve (2%)
45-1 Bodhisattva (1.75%)
8-1  Divining Rod (9%)
5-2  Firing Line (21%)

The way I figure it is by adding the 18% Win takeout back into the payoff of the first leg.  So in this example, I figure the Preakness Win odds based on Keen Pauline paying $40.00 rather than the after takeout amount of $32.80.  I\'m usually a % point or 2 off, but it\'s pretty close.

Not trying to be a smarty pants, because this still isn\'t exactly right.  If anyone knows the proper calculation, I would be glad to know it.

I wouldn\'t use this for making selections myself so I certainly don\'t take any offense.  The use of the odds was intended more to make sure I\'m comparing horses with similar chances of winning.  Like you I view odds of 15-1+ as a positive because we all want value.

Here are a two things that I think might be interesting to take from this.

1) The faster the horse the more important the pedigree for the distance.  The horses that have outrun their pedigrees on Derby Day were on the slow side coming into the Derby and the fast horses that flopped had weak distance pedigrees.

2) The public overbets slow horses with strong pedigrees in the hope that the additional distance will be just the medecine.

3) The public overbets fast horses with poor distance pedigrees.

Why I think it may be important in this years derby is because California Chrome is a fast horse with a questionable pedigree.  At 3.4 his dosage index slips just under the 3.5 from the study, but after factoring in the fact that he\'s a Cal Bred and the huge surface switch from SA to CD.  I think he\'s an awesome bet against.

First of all, I\'ve stalked here for years and there\'s truly no better place for Derby discussion than this board.  Kudos to TGJB for being an active participant on the board as it is rare indeed for a host to mingle with the commoners in the message board world.

The reason for my post is the awesome Historical Derby spreadsheet that was posted yesterday.  Overnight I did a little tinkering with it and here are my findings.

The chart below breaks past Derby starters into several categories.  For the purposes of this study FAST= Route Top of less than 3 and CONTENDER is based on field size, but is approx 15-1 or less.  Records for each category are listed as Starts-Wins-2nd\'s-3rd\'s-4th\'s along with a % of exacta finishes.

 9-1-2-0-0 Slow Contenders Above 3.5 Dosage (33%)
26-0-0-3-1 Slow Contenders below 3.5 Dosage (0%)
83-1-4-1-4 Slow Non-Contenders below 3.5 Dosage (6%)
23-3-1-0-2 Slow Non-Contenders Above 3.5 Dosage (17%)
62-9-7-5-3 Fast Contenders Below 3.5 Dosage (27%)
14-1-1-3-1 Fast Contenders Above 3.5 Dosage (14%)  
59-1-0-2-3 Fast Non-Contenders Below 3.5 Dosage (1.7%)
21-0-2-1-1 Fast Non-Contenders above 3.5 Dosage (9%)

Upgrade the Win and Exacta chances of any horse that has a Route Top of 3 or higher AND a Dosage Index of 3.5 or higher.  Since 1998 the record of these types is 32-4-3-0-2.


Downgrade the the Win and Exacta chances of any horse that has a Route Top of 3 or higher AND a Dosage Index lower than 3.5.  Since 1998 the record for these types is 109-1-4-4-5.
 

Horses with a Dosage Index lower than 3.5 must also have a Route Top of less than 3 AND go off at 15-1 or less.  These low Dosage Index horses that failed to meet both of the above criteria are a miserable 168-2-4-6-8 since 1998.

Horses with a Route Top of less than 3 must also have a Dosage Index lower than 3.5 AND go off at 15-1 or less.  These fast horses that failed to meet both of the above criteria are a miserable 94-2-3-6-5 since 1998.