ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve always thought that \"class\" was a proxy for
> good speed figures, from a time when there weren\'t
> good speed figures.  A horse that places in G1s
> will be faster than one that places in allowance
> races, because the former is facing faster company
> (on average).  
>
> But good speed figures make that kind of analysis
> mostly irrelevant.  I say \"mostly\" because a horse
> running back to a typical number in a stakes race
> validates those numbers (in my mind, at least) to
> a greater degree than running back to a number in
> an allowance.

I don\'t think class always equals figures.  As pointed out, Songbird and Zenyatta are good examples.  I believe AP may be another recent one with figures relatively mediocre probably until his last race.  I believe that Timeform uses class in their figures which is why they were basically the lone entity assigning AP the top spot in the totem pole early on.  

Class looks at who you beat or how good the onlooker thinks the horse is regardless of time.  Without times in Europe to a large degree, this is how they ranked horses, the prestige of the race, who they beat, and how they looked doing it.  

That\'s how I look at it.

johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> John:
> With the passion of your post I did some DD.
> Yes Baffert had 7 horses kick the bucket and a
> autopsy was given to them all.
> Findings,they all had a thyroid medication on
> board not illegal by the way and two had trace
> amounts of rat poison. Fyi the rat poison is not
> used in Cali and they determined the amount was
> not significant enough to raise any flags.
> Bottom line he was not brought up on any charges.
> Now I ask you,if you are convinced of Bafferts
> magic potion,was he on all your tix Belmont day?
> If not then who is stupid?
> Respectfully
> John

No one, including Baffert, has offered up a plausible explanation for 7 horses dropping dead in a short time frame.  A trainer may have 1 or 2 who drop dead of a heart attack over a 30 year career, if any.  7?  In a short period of time?  Each given a known medication that had no business being in their bodies?  What was the purpose of that medication?

The only plausible explanation for those 7 horses dropping dead is that they were being given a substance that killed them.  If Baffert would like to ever step up an offer another plausible explanation, then I\'ll be glad to consider it.

Is this the second or third G1 dirt win for CB?  Now compare that to the 10,000 or so he\'s won on turf.  I think the stats probably backed up Beyer, or at least enough to not deserve that blasting.

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Update:  They don\'t have mud in Dubai.


Sure they do.  In fact, Thunder Snow won the UAE Derby over a muddy track.

Whatever the reason the colt decided to run a few strides then turn into a bucking bronc, it wasn\'t due to feeling mud for the first time.  Not only did he have the race above, but it\'s been muddy out there this week at CD.

Larry only gallops his horses.  Either a jockey or exercise rider work the horses.  As an aside, I guess he looks larger in the photos and videos than he really is.  He was 180 at his largest, probably 170 most days.

There isn\'t a weight extreme for the horses when they work.

Reagan/Mondale, of course.

Surely this isn\'t some new concept to you.  It\'s the entire reason that weight for age exists.

Chrome is HOY.

Arrogate will be 3yo champ now though.

Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Your history is not an exact science either.


Okie dokie.  Thanks for playing.

It\'s far from an exact science due to the varying sizes of the horses and their unknown weight carrying ability (some smaller horses are better weight carriers than larger), but I\'ve always believed there is a real maturity edge between 3 and older (looking back at the record, such as Slew losing to the older Affirmed, and Slew beating the younger Bid, etc). I handicap as such, and believed that Songbird would likely lose this race due to competitors of similar talent being in there who held that age advantage.  I almost lost that bet (wow, what a race).

Surely you don\'t give extra credit for weight given when it\'s weight for age, do you?  That ignores the maturity advantage an older horse has over a 3yo.

In fairness to Kiaran, it is a testament to his willpower that he is able to train.  He has a hardship that must make his job considerably tougher than it is to those who enjoy good health.

Is there any doubt that with all being equal the best route is the shortest?  But all isn\'t equal.  Inside can be a bad path.  A horse can be boxed in.  A horse may not be able to stride out.  He may have his momentum checked.  And a point that few away from the barn are aware of, a good number of horses don\'t like to be inside.

So an inside trip or an outside trip can be the best trip for that horse, in that race, on that day.  It\'s not automatically worse to have the wider trip.

Thanks Vagrant.  I thought it seemed a shorter list than I thought.  We thought Lawyer Ron had run a 120+ number once but haven\'t gone looking.

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And? Your point?
>
> Listen, I like those guys, what they sell is good
> value for the money. But a) there\'s a reason
> people pay $25 per track for ours, and b) what you
> see there is a function of using claiming pars, as
> I\'ve explained before.


It\'s called conversation fodder, in response to a back and forth about the best numbers in history and what other performances could vie with the title that you are bestowing to Frosted.  As I\'d just looked up the list last night and had it at hand, I thought that a decent list of performances.  

If you\'re looking for someone other than Beyer, then the only other one I\'ve heard so far is TimeFormUS who gave him a point lower than AP.

Best Beyers of all time:


Horse   Year earned   Speed Figure   Cite
Groovy           1987   134   [1]
Groovy           1987   131   [1]
Ghostzapper   2004   128   [1]
Formal Gold   1997   126   [1]
Gentlemen   1997   126   
Will\'s Way   2007   126   [1]
Formal Gold   1997   125   [1]
Skip Away   1997   125   [1]
Bertrando   1993   125   
Sunday Silence   1989   124   
Easy Goer   1989   124   
Formal Gold   1997   124   [1]
Artax           1999   124   [1]
Ghostzapper   2004   124   
Midnight Lute   2007   124   
Frosted           2016   123   
Commentator   2005   123   
Artax           1999   123   [1]
Easy Goer   1989   122   
Alysheba   1988   122   
Holy Bull   1994   121   
Quality Road   2011   121   
American Pharoah2015   120