In Belmonts\' 6th Sunday you have a great opportunity present itself. The 7/5* fav Duchov with Bailey is almost the slowest horse in the race! The $400 ex and $2700 tri are easily attainable. Take a peek at the Redboard Room Monday and you\'ll see it\'s quite easy. If only more were that simple LOL

bdhsheets

Are patterns from the twentieth century still viable and valid today? Any opinions?

Should we now embrace the horse with 7, 8, 9, 10pt top or development from a 2yo number? Or do we say no, look somewhere else. Is the 0-2-X dead? Is it now 0-0-X, 0-0-2-X or 0-0-0-X? Do we ignore 2yo figs after a long layoff and treat the 3yo as a new horse? Should we now forget the patterns and play the horse with the best fig within \"X\" amount of days? Questions, questions, questions.

Mall:

I\'m really not sure if true comparisons can ever be made. While looking at the winners or runner-ups, you can say which one looked better on either sheet, but would that have been the original wager to begin with? The contest had divergent opinions looking at the same sheets from either camp. I guess you have to start somewhere, LOL.

 
Author: Jason L.
Date:   06-11-02 17:38

I don\'t really care about \"the Freak\'s\" picks, but I disagree with your analysis on which horse\'s the sheets provide valuable information.

First, on a horse coming off a layoff. I never look at trainer stats, but when a two year-old runs a good number first time out and then comes back off a layoff as a 3 year old, they often move forward. I make money on these plays all the time (though this one was not a great price). You cannot make this play if you don\'t know what number the horse ran at 2.

Second, on Euro horses. It is not that hard to approximate timeform ratings into sheet numbers. Thus, you can often make good money either throwing out horses or using horses by comparing the timeform ratings to the sheet numbers. That horse\'s timeform ratings made it very competitive in that race at a good price.
 
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Jason:

You should try using trainer stats of some kind, it\'ll help your bottom line. 2yos off a big number coming off the layoff (they look fast on everbodys speed figs) are usually huge underlays, not sure how you\'re making money on them when they miss more often than not.

Your comment on Timeform is silly. If it were easy to project a \"sheet fig\" from their ratings don\'t you think TG or Rag would be doing so on a consistent basis?

Good Luck anyhow.

Author: superfreakicus
Date:   06-11-02 14:35

I see a few errors in that post, and a few notable omissions.

if you\'re trying to make a point, you might want to think things through next time you post up some frustrated diatribe.
if you\'re just trying to pander, rock on.

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Hey superfreakfeces:

Funny how there were a few errors and a few notable omissions, but you didn\'t bother correcting them, geee I wonder how come??? The Rags didn\'t help you win squat, yet you keep yappin\'. Same old, same old

teekay:

Whatever works best for ya is the way to go. TG\'s west coast figs actually were instrumental in my switch to their product fwiw.

Generally, I find So Cal difficult to play. So many runners coming off long layoffs or very gappy spacing in their records. In recent years the quality of racing has plummeted not to mention field size. With the more consistent weather, perhaps pace \'cappers do better ala Brohamer et al.

In last years BC Classic, west coaster Tiznow looked tons better on TG and on the Rags virtually unplayable. One race does not a product make LOL.

Have to disagree. Power Choice on TG looked ugly, 3 big X\'s in last four races, but the whole race looked that way with several running big tops, a good race to pass.

Sarava, on the other hand, in his 3yo debut hit his 2yo top 7.5>>>>5.75>>>>>4.0 In retrospect, a rapidly improving horse. Unfortunately, having not raced further than 8.5F in his career was a big negative in my book, ooops.

In both instances both needed a 2pt move forward to be competitive and Sarava looked more the part than Power Choice.

jmho

What the hey, gotta try.

R1.#3 15-1 Sunset Express Odds play fastest horse last, praying no bounce $1 Tri key 3/1,4,6,7,9,10

#4 Polish Silk 8-1 consistent small tops to a 9.5 maybe goes bonkers $1 tri key 4/1,3,6,7,9,10 Mott/Bailey returnee probably wins LOL

<$60>

R2. Ugliness everywhere you look except #1 15-1 Affair in Air keeps running small tops perhaps is due for the great leap forward. $25 wp

<$110>


R3 #1 Personable Pete 6-1 has strung together three 3\'s $1 tri key 1/2,3,5,6,7,9

#5 Strandhill 12-1 returned to 4.0 top in last, move forward? $1 tri key 5/1,2,3,6,7,9********* 1,2,3,6,7,9/5/1,2,3,6,7,9

<$200>

R4. #6 Transcendental 6-1 seems to lay over the field, they usually bite me in the ass. $1 tri key 6/2,3,5,7,8,11

#2 Too Scarlet 20-1 ran a 2pt top to a 4.5 four months ago a move forward again pays big balloons $1 tri key 2/3,5,6,7,8,11***** 2,3,5,6,7,8,11/2/2,3,5,6,7,8,11

<$290>

R5. They announced yesterday that this would be off the turf, but who knows for sure. pass

R6. $40 win #3 4-1 Entrepenuer

<$330>

R7. #2 6-1 Babae $70wp, $1 tri key 2/1,4,6,7,8,11****** 1,4,6,7,8,11/2/1,4,6,7,8,11 $10 ex box 2/8/11

<$590>

R8. #6 6-1 True Direction $100 wp

<$790>

R9. $20 ex box 1,3,7

<$910>

R10. $1 tri key 3/2,4,5,6,9,12
$1 tri key 6/2,3,4,5,9,12
$1 tri key 9/2,3,4,5,6,12

<1,000>

If dq\'d by time of entry, oh well LOL

Good Luck to all you buzzards, LOL!

bdhsheets

How often are trainer and sire stats updated?

Thanks.

How many horses and/or races would constitute a valid sample for any particular theory whatever it may be? i.e. bet any horse whose name starts with the letter \"T\" on Thursdays, silly but anyway.............

Thanks in advance for your input.

bdhsheets

There\'s more myth than legend to this race. Quick now, who won last year? How about five of the last ten? Hmmmm, neither could I. 2001 the immortal Exciting Story splashed to victory in the slowest running since 1947. Yankee Victor, Sir Bear, Wild Rush, Langfuhr, Honour and Glory, You and I, Holy Bull, Ibero, Dixie Brass ahhhh, trip down memory lane with those immortals.

Being bumped to a $750k race this year has bought in some really big shooters. Pts after ML refers to Quirin speed points.

1. Grey Memo 15-1 4pts 116# Luckiest horse on the planet! Stumbled out to Dubai to win the Godolphin Mile and $600k. TG guesstimate of a 2.75 finally breaks through his 3yo (3.0) top by a smidgeon. Too slow in here.

2. D\'Wildcat 10-1 7pts 115# had a monster effort in the Swale Stks in \'01 a minus <0.5> and it sent him to the sidelines for a year. The 3.25 in his last is a secondary top and a one pt move from his 1st two in \'02. Showing signs of life.

3. Affirmed Success 9/2 8pts 119# 8yo gelding is a running machine, but a dirt mile may be stretching it [5-1-1-1] but his love of Belmont [7-5-1-0] may overcome this. Goo lover. Last was lifetime best <0.25> after 3 straight 0\'s. 6 weeks since his last effort, but I don\'t see him as the winner.

4. Left Bank 5/2 8pts 121# Yowza, Yowza, Yowza folks. This may be THE FASTEST horse in TG history. Five negative numbers on the sheet, hot damn, with three <3.0>\'s and he\'s alive to talk about it LOL. Take time to download the race in the Red Board room Tuesday. The negative runs have been followed by a return to plus numbers. His \'02 debut of <1.5> 16 days ago and the highweight makes him a strong play against in the win spot in my minds eye at a very short price.

5. Swept Overboard 6-1 3pts 117# has a <1.25> last fall at SA before the BC. Big closer will lose ground on the turn, has yet to contest 8f; 3rd after the layoff seems a bit dull thus far.

6. Voodoo 20-1 8pts 113# hit 3yo top in the Carter \"0.25\", gets in light, a must use in the exotics.

7. Crafty C. T. 5-1 8pts 115# ouchy horse, plenty of gaps in running line; 3pt top in 4yo debut to an \"0.5\", 12 weeks rest might do it for Cali speed ball.

8. Wake At Noon 30-1 8pts 116# four negative numbers on the sheet for this Canuck runner who are generally a notch or so below US runners on the dirt; won\'t be able to clear these should wind up with a wide trip, perhaps bottom of tri\'s.

9. Dayton Flyer 30-1 6pts 113# connections will wish they were in Dayton before this is over. Likely scr???

10. Aldebaran 5-1 3pts 115# a race with a Frankel horse, oh joy! 1.25 top to a \"1.5\" at Kee, troubled trip, strong closer in a race full of sppppeeeed burners.

11. Burning Roma 10-1 4pts 116# Bailey jumps off, good! has a <1.0> in the slop at Delaware last year; finished with a \"0.5\" in the Pegasus at the Med. Bonafide router has two sprint tightners including a \"1.0\" in the Carter. If Prado can work out a rail trip, he can win this.

I\'m playing Voodoo and Burning Roma in various exotic wagers.

Good Luck later today!

bdhsheets

No expert, but for what its worth:

The first question is: what # will be needed to win this race. I\'ll hazard a guess somewhere in the \"1-2\" range. Zero??? hmmmm not here with these, again just a guess.

The paramount question revolves around War Emb, Medaglia, & Harlans. Each will be trying to put together a 4th great race in 9 weeks (2 range or less, older \"0\") Harlans is close. Early three year olds just don\'t do that. [They\'ll probably roll 1,2,3 now LOL] WE could run an \"0-2\" and be contentious, but I just don\'t think so. They might clunk up on the bottom of the exotics, but I\'m not that confident they will.

Request may have been a short horse in the Derby and had a slight move back to his 2yo top of 3.5. He\'s ripped several 2.5\'s this year which puts him in the mix without a big forward move necessary, should be a price.

USS Tinosa is a very live price play. His 1.5 in the San Rafael makes him a player. Bothered in the SA Derby and slowed to a 5.5. Missing the Derby was a blessing. He runs better with longer breaks between races and the two extra from the SA Derby helps immensley and has been training very well at CD.

No Perfect Drift or Sunday Break :-(

Crimson Hero paired 6.75\'s and needs a big jump up to get a slice.

Booklet has a top of 3.25 in the FOY big \"X\" in FL Derby guessing 6 in the Blueg. Rest may have helped, Prado trying to rate him hurt in the BG. Will give WE heat on the front end.

Easyfrom has a 5.0 top in the La Derby likely bounced a bit in the Lex 7???

Equality has a couple in the 4 range prior to the Aventura, may have repeated something close. Forward move puts him right there at a big price.

Magic Weisner isn\'t flattered by Smoked Em\'s effort in the Lone Star Derby, has 4\'s prior to the Tesio, with the wide trip likely has a similar fig again.

Menacing Dennis, who? 5.25 in \'02 debut in a sprint, distance

Proud Citizen: Preak will be 4th race in 6 weeks. 4.25 in Lex and 0.5 in Derby should cook his goose, but it is Lukas

Straight Gin: Zito runner earned a 3.0 in a GP alw. Every time he faces the big boys, he gets his nose bloodied. O-2- heading into BG. will wait for an official fig before passing judgement.

Tinosa/Request exacta might pay a bundle, very usable horses with legit shots. Final judgement later in the week.

Later,

Alydar wrote:

\"You wrote something on the Paceadvantage board that I found perplexing: \"Sheet theory says 0 (top) followed by an effort within 2 pts of the new top will lead to an X, an effort 4 pts + from the new top.\" Isn\'t this too categorical?\" Perhaps.

The nature of the top is by far the most important aspect of any analysis.

The post was aimed at those that really don\'t follow these speed figs. But at some point one has to draw lines somewhere. The comments were directed to Harlan and I thought long and hard about it, especially when HH had run several of the \"2\'s\" so to speak which were tops.

Generally, those on an \"0-2-X\" are short prices. In my minds eye, dissmissing them is the way to bet. So you miss a short priced tri/exa when they run, no loss in the long run. Of course if a repeat of the \"2\" is competitive and a big price, then you play for a repeat. Price dictates most plays.

I really don\'t post or drop in that often on the PA board, it runs in streaks.

I\'m starting a study on \"0-2-X\" and other patterns. I\'ve downloaded thousands of races from all over so it should be fairly representative. Buuut something tells me to keep a separate record of the big circuits vs the small. 3yo\'s will be by themselves. I\'ll see how it goes. LOL If you have a request, let me know.

teekay:

Baffy only got the horse after the IL Derby, so he can\'t be blamed if WE peaked already.

Do you arbitrarily decide which numbers are \"real\" and which are figments of T-Graph\'s imagination? Why use them if that\'s the case? Whatever..............