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Messages - pete

#1
Ask the Experts / caught in the rain
November 09, 2003, 06:48:25 AM
How do your figures account for the apparent significant difference in footing in the turf stake at AQU on Sat?  The rider is quoted thusly:

Migliore was relieved that his search for better ground on the soggy course paid off.

\"That was close,\" he said. \"I went out in search of better ground. We lost ground, but that was by design. I felt that I would find a better spot out there. I was just hoping I wouldn't run out of ground. It worked out well. The turf was very soft.\"

Will you give the very wide trip winner a VASTLY superior fig traveling over somewhat firmer ground versus the rail skimming place horse which was mired in the deeper slower footing?

My idea is that you treat all paths equally, thus diminishing the efforts of horses that get stuck on deep dead rails.  Just because you can\'t readily quantify the difference does not mean that none exists....and that hurts your figures and thus one\'s reading of the patterns.

#2
Alydar,
     The figure with T or op IS an \"illusion of accuracy\" (brilliant term on your part).
I would prefer TG to make an \"educated guesstimate\" of the horse\'s effort as opposed to the current figure that I must adjust myself more crudely or just toss out.
#3
Ask the Experts / willa on the move
July 14, 2002, 09:54:05 PM
a sheets theory question:  relevant to \"Willa on the move\" among others.  A horse who shows an op- (4 back) and yesterday took up severely (big T) gets a figure on the effort made during the rest of the race.  Why do both sheet figure makers refuse to improve the figure by estimating the trouble?  I do not want to hear that you can not quantify the amount of trouble so you leave it out of the figure.
   
     You pride yourself on such highly accurate figures that 1/4 to 1/2 point incremental improvements plus appropriate spacing may yield an \"explosive\" situation.  Yet the failure to measure an op- or t or T renders the figure meaningless, when it may be the key to the horses whole line (and future reads).

     I have no clue as to Willa\'s trouble 4 races back (off poor 1-2-3-4-5 lengths?).  And if I am supposed to take such extensive trip notes so that I can modify the figures, why would I want to pay for such an inaccurate figure?? And how am I supposed to monitor so many tracks and races in this manner.

     It seems to me that you can improve your figures by making them more accurately reflect the totality of the horses effort.

    If you can post her sheet after yesterday\'s fig is inserted it may make for a intersesting discussion of her line if the first op- is viewed as a 1 or a 2 and Saturday\'s fig is also adjusted 2 points better for her early trouble.