Paul Matties twitter post today: \"It was nobody\'s fault but the track at Saratoga was different for every race on Saturday. Regardless of the maker, all figures from that card will be made up. And probably, wrong.\"

An interesting perspective that success is now viewed as a failure. How a horse is managed is up to the connections - and they have won both of the Triple Crown races that they entered. Hypotheticals aside - I\'m sure that they feel pretty good right now about their horse and after the Belmont stated that they \"have no regrets\" about skipping the Preakness.

He may well need a break after these recent efforts. I have no doubt that the connections will do right by the horse.

In the Santa Anita Derby, even though it was only a 5 horse field, Rispoli managed to get this horse in a horrible spot on the rail entering the far turn. He exchanged several leans and bumps with Barnes to his outside and was clearly uncomfortable. Rispoli had to vigorously ride him to finally get him off the rail and in the clear where he responded with an impressive outside move on the turn for the win.
In the Derby. he had a slow break. lost his path in traffic , and ended up in a very tight spot into the first turn. He finally found an open spot on the backstretch and after guided off the rail, he made a very strong wide move to the wire.

In my opinion, he has shown a lot of GRIT with less than ideal trips in his recent races.

I agree. I have watched the tape several times and the contact between the horses was initiated by the winner looking for a seam entering the top of the stretch, while Prat was simply trying to maintain his position.
Regardless of how Journalism landed in that spot, there are very few horses that would take that type of negative contact from both inside and outside rivals in the stretch and continue running like a fullback that had just ran over the D-Line. This horse is a pit bull.

She is definitely a filly to tab going forward - as she could have easily finished 2nd in the race with a better ride. She had a below average break and landed inside towards the rear of the field. Ortiz had her in  a good spot right behind the winner along the backstretch. For some inexplicable reason he gave that spot up to the eventual 2nd place finisher and got shuffled several lengths and positions to the top of the stretch. When she finally found some daylight in traffic mid stretch she made a huge close in the last 1/16th. Much better effort than looked on paper.

Posted this am:

Marshall Sterling
@G1Handicapping
Early Breeders Cup RacingCast: Rain IS slowly sneaking into the forecast on Saturday for the BC. Currently it looks like light rain will begin around Noon PDT. This will continue off and on throughout totaling around a tenth of an inch during the card. I would not expect this to have an impact on surface conditions.

I\'m not a big fan of betting on dirt sprinters off 6 point tops - but with the way the track is playing today you can\'t overlook the #1 in this race. Additionally, the trainer just won the prior race and it appears the #1 breezed at Keeneland with that one and only beaten a tick in the work by his older stablemate. Currently 7/1...

I agree that she is a definite use at what should be a good price. Another one that may be under the radar from the same race is Coppice. She hit the gate at the start which cost her a few lengths. She was covered up through the turn and appeared loaded at the top of the lane but Frankie could not find a seam and she was buried to the wire. Her TG# number 2 races back certainly fits here.

Despite the ground loss, if Irad doesn\'t crack the #10 left handed hard twice in mid stretch he wins. He lost his momentum and veered out several paths as a result of the excessive whip, by the time he was corrected it was too late. A very talented but inexperienced horse - who had cantered in his last race. Irad should know better - he cost the connections the race.

It appears that it is a methodology issue on their part, founded in a dogmatic view that tracks don\'t change speed during a race day. If you are anchored to that belief, the figures they produce will be - garbage out.

Here is the Spa weather forecast from Marshall Sterling this a.m. on twitter He is the best I\'ve ever seen.

Belmont At Saratoga Opening Week
Thursday - 🌧🌧 rain for most of the day totaling around an inch
Friday - 🌧 light rain throughout the day totaling a quarter inch
Saturday - 🌧 light rain in the morning totaling a tenth of an inch

I guess the good news for his connections is that he definitely won\'t get buried inside.

An interesting and informative post regarding TAP\'s historical stats for his Derby starters. I also agree that this race goes through Fierceness, as to whether you toss him or key him. He has clearly shown that on his best day that he can run a TG number that would easily trounce his competition.

However, I believe that his success our failure will be determined in the opening quarter mile of the Derby. If he gets away from the gate cleanly and lands in a forward position with no outside pressure, I believe that he will run his race which should get him the win. But, if he has a troubled start (ie. bumped, steadied and lands in a tight spot early, he has demonstrated that he will get rank and not settle which will take him totally out of his game.

After watching the tape of his defeats, he was away from the gate poorly, had early trouble in both instances before he landed in bad spots and was no factor. I have no doubt that after the Holy Bull, he spent many extra mornings getting gate schooled, which led to a much cleaner break in the Fl Derby.

Additionally, his post position draw will be critical to his establishment of an early forward position , as if draws inside with speed to his outside, he could easily get cooked early or buried behind his rivals.

In the end, it will be a fascinating race to handicap and bet.

Good Luck

In a race where the M/L favorites don\'t appear to stand out - I think there are a few live longshots in the race including Jerry worth betting. I agree that he had a troubled trip in his last and was arguably best - Jose could have easily made the pace but instead deferred the lead to the eventual wire to wire winner. He placed the horse in several bad spots during the race and was arguably best with a better trip. He certainly fits on his best TG figures and I would be happy with 1/2 his M/L price. He is a horse that always seems to show up with a gritty effort and I\'m also noting that the blinkers  go on.
Based on his last TG figure. Kingmax also seems like a live contender at a price. Good Luck.

Glad to know that your still hanging around - and it\'s not even Derby week!