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Messages - Campbreeze

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: Preakness Day
May 27, 2005, 01:50:27 PM
I have a question, not a comment.

What do you make Giacomo\'s chances of going forward or pairing in his next race? I\'m thinking the Thoro-Pattern understates it a little.

#2
Ask the Experts / Re: Sham
April 26, 2005, 09:27:31 PM
Although Sham broke down in the Belmont, it was not a mortal injury.  I saw Sham on a side trip during my first visit to Keeneland in 1991.  Slapped him on his neck and asked him what it was like to run so close to greatness (wasn\'t it a couple of decades before a horse beat Sham\'s time in the Derby?).  Anyway, I got no response, he just tried to bite me.

#3
Ask the Experts / Re: FG: Feb 12
February 13, 2005, 10:06:46 PM
\"harlington is too big for that track.\"

Risen Star was a big, long-striding horse, and he did not have trouble winning races at the Fairgrounds.  What he didn\'t try to do, however, was go 4-wide around the turns and still win, which is where I think I recall seeing Harlington.  I\'m not sure, however, as I was trying to keep Storm Surge in front to cash the Pick 4 (Rush Bay being nowhere in sight, my other play).

Regards, Paul

#4
Ask the Experts / Re: NTRA - Guaranteed Fix 4
July 03, 2004, 11:05:42 PM
If my math is correct based on the win odds of the 4 winners, the bet should have paid around $1,700 for $1.  The only horse higher than 4 to 1 was Ticker Tape at 12 to 1.

Does not excuse the delay for the payoff to be calculated but I don\'t think you were ripped off.

And since I have logged in to post its only fair to thank TG (and Desormeaux for getting the jump on the Japanese horse)for my winning wager on Ticker Tape.  Made up for the tough beat with Newfoundland an hour earlier.

#5
Ask the Experts / Re: caught in the rain
November 10, 2003, 08:38:13 AM
I watched the horse all the way around because I had a \"play\" on him.  This is not exactly to your point but the horse was not as wide going around the turn as he was in the stretch.  It looked like Richie took him wider as they were entering the stretch, whether it was to find good ground or just looking for room to let him go.  It certainly took him awhile to pick the others up once he got into the stretch, so maybe he did find better ground at some point.

From previous posts, I believe TG takes into account where the horse is at 3 or 4 points around the turn and not just where they are when they enter the stretch.

Those 3 noses on the wire finishes are fun at 15-1.

#6
Ask the Experts / Re: Another Frankel Debacle
October 27, 2003, 03:23:59 PM
That would explain the lower winning percentage for him on BC day, but not the apparently lower level of performance achieved by most of his horses.

Having said that, maybe the day only appears to be as awful as it has been made out to be.

Sightseek - clearly ran an inexplicably poor race.

Peace Rules - flew through 6 furlongs on grass, and had nothing left.  However, the 2 horses he flew with were not out of sight at the finish line, as he was.

Aldebaran - appears to have run 6/7ths of his normal race, he was picking them up at the end.  It is not redboarding to say he needs more than 6 furlongs.

Midas Eyes - did not run his race.

Heat Haze, Megahertz and Tates Creek finished 3, 4, and 6 lengths behind what is apparently a very fine racehorse.

Medaglia d\'Oro battled it out head-to-head with another very fine racehorse for over a mile and then got caught in deep stretch.

I get 2 really bad performances (Sightseek and Midas Eyes) and 1 who knows (Peace Rules).  1 very fine performance (Md\'O) and 1 who did about what should have been reasonably expected at the wrong distance (Aldebaran, which of us didn\'t throw him out), and the 3 turf mares may have run close to what they have run all year.

Let\'s take a look at the figures on his horses when they come out and compare them to the prior figures and then see what we think.

#7
Ask the Experts / Re: www.firemikebattaglia.com
October 14, 2003, 11:56:25 AM
Joe B. - you made me laugh dropping that Cesar Romero reference on us.

Mr. Charm - How about Jeanine in the Batgirl outfit checking out the PPs, there is a resemblance.

#8
Ask the Experts / Right On Brother
July 03, 2002, 09:52:56 PM
Although we have no live racing here in New Orleans right now, my wife and children are away for the weekend, so I have 7 cards printed out for a 4th of July celebration tomorrow at one of the fine Fairgrounds OTB facilities.  I am sure I will bet at least $2 on all 70 of the races, money management and value handicapping be damned.  From the 1st race at Belmont to the nightcap at Hollywood, I will be enjoying my independence from all tyrants.

Laissez les bon temps rouler and God Bless America.