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Messages - John Gaspar

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: Wed GP 8th
February 09, 2002, 09:20:05 AM
We agree to disagree about the track condition on Wednesday. I felt that the rail was the place to be, less so in routes.

I felt the track had played with a rail bias earlier in the meet off a very similar set of circumstances. Heavy rains caused a good track to open the meet on a Thursday. By  Saturday, the track seem to be in favor rail speed and the condition lasted a couple of days. I felt my hypothesis was backed up by some horses running wide on these days came back to win or run 2nd in their next race. Heavy rains came again last weekend and caused a good track on Saturday and Sunday and I felt the rail was the place to be on Monday and Wednesday

I am not Alydar nor am I trying to bust anyone\'s chops. I thought I asked a legitimate question on how you would adjust your odds line based on \"correct\" or \"incorrect\" observations.
#2
Ask the Experts / General TG usage questions
February 07, 2002, 08:22:44 PM
I haven\'t used TG for a couple of years and had some questions for current users. When I used the numbers, I used them in conjunction with the DRF. I still used other factors in my handicapping but liked to rely on the differences between TG\'s numbers and the Beyer number listed in the Form to locate either hidden trips or false favorites if the TG numbers for more than one contender were similar but the Beyer numbers were vastly different.

Do hardcore TG users buy a racing form? If so, is it for secondary handicapping factors.

Do you use TG as the sole means of your play or as an important tool among a bunch of tools?
#3
Ask the Experts / Wed GP 8th
February 07, 2002, 08:07:38 PM
I looked in the red board room for selections of the card at GP yesterday and had a question.

I recognize that picks are made before hand and that you don\'t have the benefit of earlier races on the card but you do have the benefit of previous days\' bias or trends.

My question concerns the 8th race. I too liked Iwin to get back or go through his previous top in this race and thought he offered value vs foes that either ran new tops in their last or were possible bounce candidates. The problem I had in making the play, even at what I would normally consider acceptable odds, was the position that I would have expected Iwin to be in. He broke from the 7 hole in a 7 horse field on a track which greatly favored the rail and had been favoring the inside for 2 days. I couldn\'t forsee a trip where Iwin would be able to get the rail or save ground.

Is this a situation where you would have to pass the race at 5-2 or 3-1 (the odds suggested) but couldn\'t resist the race at say 5-1 or 6-1?