you are forgetting that this years 3 year old group was slower than last years.  that showed up in a lot of the figures as well as the experts on derby day, this was a \"wide open field\".  to me its comical that so many want to compare the 2, lets wait 4+ weeks and see what happens.  many forget the dominating performance in the BC Classic, and Baffert\'s comments post race, before beyer put out his number, \"andy was that fast enough for you?\" The only shop to have AP that fast early on was this one.  the first horse to win the crown in 37 years and we have more than a few people who want to say Nyquist is as good or better....again its comical...

slow race or not, the mud forces you to throw this one out the window. whatever figure earned by whatever source will include a many more human assumptions than typical.  if he doesn\'t win the Belmont, i wouldn\'t argue a bounce more than i would argue history will have won out again.

more importantly lets talk about this horse\'s endurance.  mud or no mud every other horse that ran in the derby is still running on the track.

AP has the sire lines to take the Belmont. More so than many of the others who have attempted.  Big Brown was very questionable to get the distance, Cali Chrome less so but certainly not regal on the mare side. and lucky pulpit meh...

certainly will be challenged by Materiality as he has the speed and the breeding and the running style to be right there...

does it make sense that the will pay with the 11 (m/l favorite) over Cal Chrome pays $18.. seems high  11 with Wicked Strong is the second choice at $49

it may have to do with the fact that farms just don\'t breed for stamina like they used, which i know has been discussed plenty on this board.

There is a reason most of the winners are decedents of Raise a Native (with fewer entrants in the race from him every year), seems to be the only sire line that gets the distance.  while i completely understand that track variant changes from year to year as does the pace of the race here are the times for the last 5 Belmont winners:

2:30.70
2:30.42
2:30.88
2:31.57

vs
2:27.54
2:29.65
2:28.74
2:27.81
2:28.75 for the 5 prior (which all 5 seem more in line with history)

i believe speed figures have reflected this as well, with the Belmont winner receiving slower numbers than the other stakes winners on the card.

wanted to thank you for what a superior product you produce, i have been using your product for the past year and my handicapping has taken a big step forward.  in addition to this, your insight as well as others on this board has been extremely helpful as well. not trying to redboard but i had the best day of my betting career yesterday, the TG sheets were on fire...win bets, doubles/pick 3s/pick 4 all day...kudos..