Rez,

Apologies here for the miscommunication on these fronts.

Correct me if I\'m wrong, but for some time, you have maintained the problem with chasing the tracks, CAW\'s, and Tote companies is that with the allegations involved namely that it would be in the vein of fraud.  As such, your position is that getting past a Motion to Dismiss would be very difficult.  As a result, the discovery that would effectuate meaningful change by itself even before a trial would never happen.  I believe that is your position in the past.  If I\'m wrong, correct me.

Picking up on that, I am suggesting that pleading Negligence against the tracks and tote companies, IN THE ALTERNATIVE, to the intentional torts would provide another avenue to achieving success.  Now, the exact lawsuit in question may not state this, but I am stating that a claim can be made with the mountain of evidence piling up that At Least, the tracks and tote companies are negligent in failing to close the pools when the gates open.  The evidence is beyond there for this claim.  Now if it is being done intentionally, that would be a suit based in fraud.  Those two suits could be plead alternatively.  One set of facts can give rise to these alternative theories being plead as you understand.  

And the negligence suit is more likely to get past a Motion to Dismiss and Summary Judgment than an intentional tort.  That is my point.  

I understand in the suit at hand actually on file that it is plead under statutes that provide treble damages and attorney\'s fees while negligence does not allow these terrific threats.  However, all one may need is to get the case to discovery.  The house of cards, if it is one, will begin to show its bare bones if that\'s the situation (LIKELY LOL).  

Duty to Close the Pools When the Gates Open
Breach-Show any judge just one video of the odds changing at the wire after 1:12 3/5 and I\'m pretty sure they aren\'t going to say I understand 70s technology is slow in 2026.  Add in ALL the examples where the odds on horses go up in odds that lose jockeys and break poorly and we have a PLAUSIBLE claim.  NOTE:  This is where you HAVE them...the pools don\'t even fully settle by their own records until 19 SECONDS INTO THE RACE!!!!
Causation-The Pools not closing when the gates open lead to lower odds on horses bet after the bell causing the Plaintiff to receive lower odds and thus lower payoffs in the form of monetary damages. All these ADW records are perfect for this to show a payoff for a plaintiff was far lower b/c of the odds difference between the odds shown at the time the gates open and when the pools close.  Just look for a BCBC participant (with diversity) who was robbed of 75k on a winning play the last several years.  I\'m sure there is at least one example of this out there.  Between their gambled amount going down b/c of the odds change and the prize amount they missed for a higher placing in the final race, I\'m certain we can get there.
Damages-Lost prize money and gambling winnings from the pool not being closed on time by the tracks and the tote companies.  

This gets them past a Motion to Dismiss and a Motion for Summary Judgement against the tracks and the tote companies.  And that gets you to Discovery which is the promise land to tearing them down.  A victory at trial isn\'t even probably necessary thereafter.  But there\'s no treble damages and no attorney\'s fees with this approach.

I just gave another blueprint to take these %^#%&^#$ down.  You can disagree and I\'m confident you will.  But it will only take one suit to get to discovery in one state using this method and . . .

Silver,

One of the Defendants in the lawsuit is \"Racing & Gaming Services,\" a CAW registered in St. Kitts and Nevis.  A quick review of the tax benefits of St. Kitts will reveal that actually these folks likely do not even have to report their handle, much less pay taxes.  

Meanwhile, Stronach Group of course is owned by Canadian Belinda Stronach.

As American as Apple Pie this horse racing game!  

As for the idea that the stock market folks are a fair comparison, one question for you Silver, if you don\'t mind.  Do the folks with the \"structural advantages\" Boscar describes also have the ability to put their money down on specific stocks based on prices 30 seconds earlier?  I\'m gonna guess \"No.\"

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Solutions:

1. Destroy them in court.  Fingers crossed.  I hope everyone involved with the CAWs and their partners\' brilliant schemes go down in flames.

2.  Legislate the CAW\'s out of the game in the states that actually care about the future of the game beyond a few years.

3.  At the track level, ban them altogether from your pools while catering to the valuable on track dollars from customers and Retail Players.

4.  Create a federal oversight body for the billions in money involved in the horse racing industry.  Yes, I ABSOLUTELY trust the federal govt over the Stronach Group and CDI and their CAW partners and tote partners.  That\'s a scary proposition as some would say HISA has taught us.  But, again, you can\'t trust anyone involved with the CAW folks.

5.  A criminal investigation by the FBI (Eastern District of NY) into these folks and let\'s see what we learn.
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NOTE:  Mike Maloney posted (paraphrasing here) on twitter/X this weekend that circa 2009, the Integrity Committee in Kentucky voted to close the pools when the 1st horse loads with unanimous support.  It then had a majority of support from the Commission [Racing I presume he means].  On the day of the vote though it was shut down by Churchill and the head of the [Racing?] Commission Beck was then suddenly against closing the pools when the first horse loads.  

CD and all these tracks/CAW\'s/Tote Companies/Track Execs have been laughing to the bank for the past 16 years at least as they all exploit whatever weaknesses they can find in the parimutuel pools, the tote system, and at the expense of All Retail Bettors.  

Now ask yourself, why is it is SO important to not close the pools when the first horse loads that CD had to jump on the scene to save the day back in 2009?  

I\'m sure the most altruistic reasons one can surmise are what a few folks here will tell me.

I understand that.  But what about my negligence claim?  Why is that one a fail for you, if it is?

Rez,

While you are the expert in this area, I have more questions for you.  

If I were to take my computer coded, algorithm aided, AI powered tablet/phone/laptop and set it down at the slot machine, may I hook it up to the slot machine and let it work its magic while I either sit there or even go wander around the casino?

If I were to take my computer coded, algorithm aided AI powered tablet/phone/laptop and I sit down at the black jack table so it can count cards and tell me the exact plays, may I do so?

If the law requires me to be 18 to wager on horse racing, and I hook up my 5 year old laptop into the parimutuel pools and I let it automatically make the bets using AI, is that legal? And what, if any, consequences are there for me having my 13 year old (albeit fictious for this exercise) son sitting behind the screen making thousands and thousands of dollars a day making sure the computer is connected to the pools at Stronach, CD, Parx, etc while no one else is in the room?  I am sure that TrustMeBro Law dot com says they will never know if my kid is the one making the plays or my 5 year old laptop despite their combined age of 18.

If the plaintiff\'s attorneys plead negligence against the tracks and the tote companies in failing to close the pools on time (which I believe is likely and have posted enough evidence that a civil jury would believe they are betting late more likely than not), would they get past a motion to dismiss for that claim?  [NOTE:  For those doubting the issues with past posting, please find me a list even a 1/3 as long as the ones I\'ve posted here where a horse that is 5-1 or less breaks slow or drops a jock at the start, and the odds GO DOWN in Price (meaning significantly more money is bet on them).  You find me even one or two of those that in multiple pools more money comes in, and I might start to entertain the idea there isn\'t past posting).  
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Rez, I\'ll save you the time.  The answers are you believe they have no shot so actually no reply is needed.  Luckily, they will fight this out in the Federal Court and not on the TG Board so we shall see how it all plays out in time.  I\'m not saying you are incorrect with your pessimistic opinion; but I do think there is a better shot than you see.

Sports betting goes live Dec 1st in Missouri.

It has been beyond murky if ADW\'s for horse racing would be included.  It has been reported to me by our good friend at NYRA, that Yes, Indeed, NYRA Bets will be working towards being available in Missouri.  He did caution that NJ has taught them he can\'t say how soon is relatively soon.  

That said, one would presume that FanDuel, TwinSpires, Xpressbet will all be setting up shop in Missouri also.

So, our good pal [Fairmount GM], who just LOVESSSS the CAW\'s and has openly said so will have to do some magic to get the St. Louis folks to cross the river once someone goes live in Missouri.  Fairmount has basically IGNORED and shown Disdain towards the folks putting the most valuable dollars into the pools at the track.  Your Move [FP GM]!  What you gonna do to earn our business now?  My honest guess is Nothing.

NOTE:  [FP GM] is a Kentucky guy who worked at Keeneland presumably alongside the Wagering Development Officer or whatever JG\'s title is these days.  Just keep kissing up to the CAW\'s?  Or going to try to earn live customer business?  Which will it be?  My bet is on CAW\'s based on the first season of business.

For those interested in this topic, copy and paste this website into your address bar, go to the site and scroll down a good ways and watch the video where the headline says:

On the news I’m hearing RE: horse racing and CAWs…

https://www.mutstack.com/p/friday-four-pack-111425
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I had read that a Kentucky legislator was considering passing laws about CAW\'s, Thayer then commented on it but I don\'t think these two have since said much as that has been a few weeks.  So, not sure if he is talking about Kentucky but that\'s my guess.

30 to 60 days. We shall see.

Jerry,

Massive is the word.  what % of the pools are they these days?  At Fairmount, they were over 60% on certain races and other races did not even get involved.  Of course, you don\'t know that until after the bell and the final cycle gets calculated.  

Folks like to say they are 30 to 40%.  I think it is more than that.  If that number is accurate, that is only b/c they don\'t play every race.  It seems a beyond safe secret.

Silver made mention of the Sport of Clowns!  As evidence of his joke/serious statement, the people who \"cover\" or \"provide analysis\" of this \"entertainment business\" (See Mike Joyce on this particular one) all but REFUSE to address the CAW\'s in their video/audio/adw appearances.  In fact, there is one CLOWN in the horse racing media/analyst/announcer/whatever roles that seems to support them beyond belief.  I\'m convinced he is on Dr. Nick\'s payroll.  He\'s a Fat Cat let\'s call him.  He never, ever will say that anything is but on the up and up about the CAW\'s.  I don\'t believe there is one massive conspiracy to cover up for the CAW\'s.  But I do think all of the employers of these CLOWNS have instructed them to zip it re: CAW\'s.  

These are the folks employed to assist the bettors.  They are not assisting the CAW\'s.  If your job (or your employee/CLOWN\'s job) was to assist the Retail bettors in every way possible, wouldn\'t you have them Beating the Drum that we need to LIMIT and BAN The Caw\'s?  Wouldn\'t you encourage folks to sign up at the class action lawsuit website?  These CAW\'s are costing your audience significant dollars and the CLOWNS won\'t say outloud \"\"We Need Major Change.\"  Is it b/c their employers know the MASSIVE amounts CAW\'s are wagering are far more than has ever been reported?  IDK.  Ultimately, all I\'m saying, is that it is beyond telling that NO ONE from the CLOWN Car is willing to call this issue out publicly.  

Now, Portnoy has done it.  Repole to a degree has done it (his pal Pat isn\'t as damning towards them).  Gramm refuses to take the strong stance.  Kudos to Andy Asaro who has been a strong advocate against CAW\'s and of the lawsuit.  But these guys aren\'t part of the CLOWN car that provides assistance to Retail Gamblers.  

One friend surmises they are all fearful of their jobs b/c they are just employed to talk about animals running in a circle and they don\'t want to jeopardize that easy living with their RED Nose on their face. I am not sure but find me a knowledgeable person about the gambling game who will tell you that the CAW\'s are a positive in any way for the long term health of the game or a positive for Retail Bettors.  Quotes from the corporate Stronach Group don\'t count.

The math works out to $879 of winning exacta payouts.  If the exacta payout was in concert with the win odds, there would have been $203 of winning exacta payouts for an expected $1 exacta payoff of $291.00 instead of the actual $67.30 for $1.  

There are at least two points of note here.  This is in New York where the win pools are cutoff at 2 minutes to post supposedly. So, using Non-Caw Final Win odds in comparison to CAW-infested Exacta payoffs is not comparing apples to apples.  

The other point is that this is not \"going for a score.\"  This is covering the bases of possible outcomes of the race in concert with the probability models spit out by their algorithms.  One reason, among others, that they need to bet very, very last is so that they can calculate how much of their wagers will make up the entire pool and bet the percentages of the various combos correctly in relation to that Expected Final Pool Total that includes their final bets.  

But hey, it is all just \"CAW Hype\" folks.  They only \"go for a score.\"  They don\'t deplete every reasonable possibility that their model suggests (Sarcasm).  

It is true they are not always right.  They were here and they reduced the payoff by about $230 by my math (if the expected exacta payoffs are supposed to be in relation to the win odds which as stated is not an exact comparison in NY anymore).

#8 was 5.6-1 late in the wagering.  The imputed Double odds were 5.2-1.  The off odds were 8.1-1.  These are per Ed DeRosa\'s post on X.

Further in the string, it is reported that $3,506 was bet in the final flash in the show pool yet only 58 dollars was bet to SHOW on the 8 in that final cycle.

And it is also noted nearly every exotic involving the 8 horse Doubled in that last cycle.  

The CAW\'s just pounded that favorite is all that happened.  It is just a coincidence the jockey fell off in a few strides and the win, exotic, and show pools all reflected a far less chance for the 8 to be a part of the payoffs.

Right on cue.  Parx, Race 2.

Jockey falls off the #8 horse at the start and the odds go UP.

The exotic wagers essentially doubled involving the 8.

I tried to add this to the string I had going of all the ones that have went up the past several months when a horse breaks bad or loses a jock but it looks the TG board is down to just one page for looking back.  

If the Guardians pitcher got charged for throwing the ball in the dirt. . . Someone Please call the Eastern District of New York and give them the list I posted a while back along with this one from today and tell them start investigating.  It is Beyond Obvious.  Whether it is criminal or not requires investigation.  But there\'s enough to say there is past posting.

Can\'t wait for the \"but they are just this sharp\" responses to fly in.

Elite 2 is likely The Joker.

Elite 17 is likely Dr. Nick. (reportedly bet $650 million on US racing in 2023 through Elite Turf Club and reportedly bet $60 million on Del mar in 2021).  Who knows if he has an account through Velocity with Churchill controlled signals?

They are both from Australia.  These two are the largest CAW players or at least at last check of information available.  As I understand it, Dr. Nick stole an idea from a large player where he makes up front payments to a track prior to the meet starting.  Fairmount Park\'s handle increased by 8.7 million under new ownership this year.  Trust me when I saw it ain\'t the retail bettors pumping in an extra 8 million.  A very intelligent person in the professional gambling world theorized strongly that Dr. Nick made his up front payment to the track.  This results in what some call a \"Reverse Rebate.\"  The tracks, like Del Mar, need the money up front to operate.  From there, I\'m not sure of the exact agreements, and so-called special deals. TDN once stated that such deals result in a \"noticeably more favorable rate of play\" without going into specifics.  For Del Mar, such an arrangement involved a 7-figure up-front payment.

It is worth noting The Joker\'s involvement in the Texas Lottery and how they spent 70 million to take a lottery pool covering nearly every combo if I recall correctly.  You can Google about that I\'m sure.

Jerry is correct with how they play the game in many instances.  It has been noted they do not play a part wheel ticket for instance.  They will play a combo of fav/fav/fav/fav/fav for XX amount. Then fav/2nd/fav/fav/fav for XX-y.  The amounts they play for each combo are in exact relation to their probability models.  This is all good and wonderful they play outlandish and bizzaare combos down to the 50 cent incremement at times to scoop a pool.  Where things get confusing . . . is when the vertical plays do not match up with the horizontal information ESPECIALLY AS I\'VE NOTED WHEN THE HEAVY FAVORITES OFTEN NEED THE LEAD TYPES BREAK POOR OR LOSE ALL CHANCE BY DROPPING A JOCKEY.  But note, there are multiple CAW teams besides even the two often cited.  Some folks like to generalize and theorize, they (CAWs) don\'t show their hand in the double but in the p3 and they hit the exactas the hardest.  I don\'t know with several CAW teams and playing in different amounts relative to each other, how they collide with each other sometimes affects the pools.  Something tells me that one player has even better perks than other CAW teams up until the very, very, very last moments a wager can be made but that\'s just my opinion.  

As for competing against them, I have spent the past year in the hours I\'m not working sharpening my handicapping knives.  Regular readers can probably tell that from my posts the last few months.  I have stated and Boscar didn\'t disagree that the game can still be profitable for a sharp, disciplined player.  But as a wise businessman told me about a job once that he didn\'t really want, there isn\'t much meat on the bone in today\'s game.  They are playing even longshot chances correctly and at times, beyond correctly.  

Is it worth playing still?  That\'s each person\'s individual decision.  But you have to know what you are getting involved in when your money goes in the pools.  I can beat these guys straight up on the races I pick to play.  I can\'t beat them playing every race.  They are playing a completely different game.  I don\'t think Only breaking even is ever their goal, but if they do, they still win.  For the retail player, that is not true likely.  And as one player noted to me and I\'ve discussed with close friends since, you can\'t even think of getting in a rhythm of popping several races in a row b/c there isn\'t value in race after race as there used to be 20 years ago or so.

The CAW lawsuit needs to make it to discovery and then things will change.  I guarantee there are many things the tracks don\'t want you to know.  Consider why these CAW teams do not want to bet at 2 minutes to post in the win pool. While pondering that, I\'m going to steal this thought from a Paulick Report to end this post.  \"The Stronach Group\'s spokespeople warn, \'this lawsuit is an attack on the entire industry and puts at risk the tens of thousands of working families and the communities that rely on it.   This baseless lawsuit has the potential to devastate an entire industry.\'\"  

The same folks who are wanting to decouple, have closed Golden Gate, have essentially closed Laurel and put Maryland in peril, and are doing all they can legislatively and via lawsuit claiming Equal Protection issues (which is laughable) to de-couple Gulfstream.  They are the same folks taking shots at a retail gambler from Colorado taking on the CAW\'s.  Now ponder why 1/st/Stronach/Belinda are so interested in calling the lawsuit baseless.  If the tracks thought all of their CAW dealings were on the up-and-up, why wouldn\'t they in coordination with the CAW principals provide more transparency about everything involved unless. . . there are things they absolutely do NOT want you to know.  That doesn\'t sound like \"Parimutuel\" to me (\"Betting among ourselves\").

The solution is to ban them legislatively.  If Kentucky or NY would take this step, their total handle short term would suffer.  But they can both weather the storm, and long term (and it wouldn\'t take very long) the retail money would POUR into their pools.  The first state to do this will be a big winner long term is my position.

From strictly a handicapping POV, after WA\'s KyDerby effort, I have always taken the position that he can only produce his best efforts for Saffie Joseph at Gulfstream.  In fact, he can only win at GP according to the Saffie trained PP\'s.  He was a terrible 2nd choice purely as a handicapper.  

Dutrow took the horse to heights SJ couldn\'t achieve with him.  That said, Dutrow stated clearly while training him that the horse needs a lot of time in between starts (read between the lines why that may be true and I\'m not being coy here).  

I applaud the owners for keeping the horse in training as the game needs stars to continue to run.  Unfortunately, he isn\'t even close to the same horse in the hands of Saffie as he was in Rick\'s for that Whitney and Classic double.  And when Rick couldn\'t get him to run well following that Classic win and Saffie has only won in friendly F L A since, there surely are some issues for the vets to have their antennas up and the horse on their radar to avoid the result JB described.

Silver,

Hate to quibble but just to clarify that stat is when the 13 or the 14 is the OUTSIDE Post of the race.  Not sure if the 13 has ever won in 14 horse field but if a scratch or two happens on Friday in either race, Post 12 in 12 horse fields is 114-10-6-7 with Henri Matties winning last year from the outside post 12 (number 13 in wagering) at 7-2.  Mattiese was 2FT about 8L behind through FT; 3BS; mET; 4mT; 5EStr; 6Str and best to win.  I am not certain if he was post \"13\" in that the 1 was left empty??  But others can confirm that from the replay.  Regardless, I don\'t believe 13 and 14 are a death sentence for these two.    

I\'m not saying Precise and Gstaad win but I don\'t see it as awful as others.  

I like Balantina quite a bit in the Juvy Fillies Turf besides Precise.  Precise with a decent trip can blow their doors off in the Stretch if she can save just a bit of ground in FT.  I\'ll have an ex box and a tri with those 2 in it.

I\'m against Gstaad as a grinder type, big colt.  He can win but I don\'t believe he towers over the field like others.  I\'ll be playing Street Beast and Gordon Pass to get the job done.  Street Beast would end that Ky Downs drought if he were to win.  I can\'t guarantee a Ky Downs horse wins but the competition there is so good now that I\'ll be shocked if they don\'t have a solid impact in at least place/show spots this year and maybe a few wins also.  
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I did some Touch of Destiny studying for those interested.  All of his replays are available on TwinSpires at least; his works are out there on 1st Racing.  Two of his works were with Journalism but don\'t think he was cranked in those.  I think he is up against it in the win spot is long story short as an AUGUST 3yo from URU but I would recommend looking at his replays and works yourselves to make your own decision.

Likely my last post until after BC to the relief of some in these parts likely haha.  Good Luck to all.  I want to hear about some big winners on the weekend.

Mike,

Hope all is well!

Bring Theband Home highlights an interesting point that is also seen with Seismic Beauty.  

His two very best races were WITHOUT Lasix whether looking at Beyer or TG or Timeform.  I will note that I bet the horse on July 4th as I was on track and watched the race in the grandstand.  The finale had NO speed on paper, it was a biased track imo and the horse went by and I told novice friends That horse could win the BC Turf Sprint.  I can\'t comment as closely on his last 2 runs but his first monster effort was aided.  There\'s more speed in this one but I don\'t want to talk you off a horse who is FASTTTT on his best.

The interesting comparison is with Seismic Beauty in the 7th race.  Her two best races are without Lasix.  Clearly on Beyer, clearly on Timeform, TG her race 3 back is same as 2 back but her most recent was her best.  

That\'s not something you see everyday where TWO races for a horse are WAY better without Lasix than with Lasix.  Both horses run without Lasix on Saturday.  

The undercard Allowance races both days are without Lasix.  This is a bit challenging also I\'ll note as a somewhat related issue.

Back to the Turf Sprint, Reef Runner was gelded prior to his race 3 back and Fawkes has stated that made all the difference even before his most recent win.  Khaadem\'s final furlong would be interesting to know from that Kee run.  Haven\'t settled my mind on that race yet but it is a fasciating one.  

Best of Luck!

Speaking of Baffert, his Saturday horses in the BC Races:

Splendora:  Last raced Sept. 1
Hope Road:  Last raced Aug. 23.  2nd race off a layoff since May, 2025.
Richi:  Last raced Sept. 28.  3RD OFF A LAYOFF.  
Imagination:  Last raced Sept. 28.  2nd off a layoff since Jan, 2025.
Seismic Beauty:  Last raced Aug. 2.  That was her first race since May, 2025.  Near 90 days since her last.  
Nevada Beach:  Last raced Sept. 27.  2nd off a layoff since June, 2025.  5th career start facing older as the \"Other, Other, Other 3yo\" of the Classic group.
Goal Oriented:  Last Raced Sept. 20.  2nd off a layoff since July, 2025.
Nysos:  Last raced July 26.
Citizen Bull:  Last raced Aug.31.  Prior race was June 7th.

Mandella:

Tamara:  Last raced Oct.4, 2nd off layoff since Nov, 2024
Kopion:  Last raced Aug. 2nd
Big City Lights:  Last raced Jan 18.  Has only lost to 4 horses in his career.  The Chosen Vron, Raging Torrent, Happy Jack and Dr. Venkman who is in the race.  Not a bad list for a Cal bred.

Blacker:

Straight No Chaser:  Last raced Sept. 28, 2nd off a layoff since April, 2025 (lame in front leg after that April race)

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California trainers bringing in their Dirt horses FRESH except for Richi.  I am making the assumption this is by design and that these horses are fit, ready, and dangerous b/c of whatever the current rules of the game are these days.  I am not allowing the layoffs to influence my decisions.