Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - Gerard

#1
A W-2g or 5754 would not be triggered in this string\'s scenario as both the $600.00 winning wager and a 300x profit on the amount wagered needed to trigger the filing are not met. The player would then be left on his honor to report net (proceeds minus cost basis) winnings on Schedule 1 of their return. Professional players are either smart enough on their own or have someone in the employ to navigate Schedule C.

So we are still left with the ten percent hangover on net winnings should it come to fruition. There are crypto options and other navigable paths, but the racing industry, especially the struggling or closed venues could potentially exploit this egregious issue, and move to a prediction based pari mutuel environment creating a longer term tax benefit to the more than everyday player, and possibly bring in some new players to a game that desperately needs new fans and a new base.

Don\'t post/ don\'t play much anymore, but there is no evidence (SO FAR), the filing requirements that trigger a W-2g or 5754 for the syndicates will change. Hoping a reader out there with any pull can see this as a potential advantage to the racing industry. Good luck to all.
#2
Smith may be looking down the road also. Why get off what he knows is a quite talented horse even if a potential off race is on the horizon, especially one that may be around for a 4yo campaign. Anyway, that\'s the way I\'m viewing it. 5th start of the year with the 4th being the Ark derby is tough to back with conviction.
#3
Ask the Experts / Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19
April 26, 2019, 04:31:25 AM
Will be using War of Will as well. Thinking his odds may drift lower if his final workout is strong, maybe closer to 20-1 similar to AKs action in 2011.

Mike Welsch thinks Cutting Humor looks the better of the two Pletcher\'s right now. I\'ll be using him on more than a few tickets. The Sunland number is a little light, but the place finisher moved forward a point in the Lexington and if CH can move forward a couple on the extra rest, thinking he can be competitive. Anothertwistafate took some money in pool 4 of the futures and will probably be bet in the Preakness. While the finish in the Sunland was impressive, he never got past CH after the wire. Drawing a line through the Southwest start as CH had Mike Tyson next to him for the first quarter or so. JV bailing on the Pletchers\'s is not a positive, but that\'s why you look to get paid.
#4
Ask the Experts / Lucky Dan
April 25, 2019, 08:25:21 AM
Since the inception of the points system, the results of each horse that placed in their final prep:

2012
Creative Cause 5th
Hansen         9th
Alpha          12th

2013
Normandy Invasion 4th
Mylute            5th
Palace Malice     12th
Itsmyluckyday     15th
FracDaddy         16th

2014
Saamrat           5th
RideonCurlin      7th
MedalCount        8th
Intense Holiday   12th
WildcatRed        18th

2015
DanzigMoon        5th
FarRight          15th
Tencendur         17th
Upstart           18th

2016
SuddenBreakingNews 5th
Mor Spirit         10th
Mymansam           11th
tomsReady          12th
TrojanNation       16th
Majesto            18th

2017
BattleofMidaway    3rd
PracticalJoke      5th
Patch              14th
State of Honor      19th

2018
Hofburg         7th
LoneSailor      8th
Bolt D\'oro      12th
Flameaway       13th
Enticed         14th

The only new tops were recorded by Mylute and Battle of Midway.
#5
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby
April 23, 2019, 05:09:31 PM
Some tops/pairs/offs data after a high variant deviation race would be interesting to hear about if possible. Assuming the Santa Anita/Sunland Derby and possibly some others were such races.
#6
Ask the Experts / Commonwealth
April 04, 2019, 11:15:49 AM
Saturday\'s sixth at Keeneland offers two with an attractive m/l price from the 2018 Sunland Derby.

Runaway Ghost raced 4w5w into a very strong backstretch headwind (30+mph) that day. He was the only one of the four or five vying for early contention to finish in the money in earning the win. Put on the shelf for the remainder of the 2018 campaign after an injury, his first out this year puts him in the thick here. He\'s dropping seven lbs from his last out and dropping about 3,000 feet in altitude.

New York Central pressed the tough pace in that Sunland Derby from 2w. He was finished turning for home. He came back and drew clear in the Pat Day Mile homestretch on KD day at 30-1 only to be run down by Fuuny Duck. He too was put on the shelf for the remainder of the 2018 campaign. His first out this year is a little light on the TG, but this 750k purchase did run an okay number Nov. 2017.
#7
Ask the Experts / Re: Indiana Derby
July 13, 2018, 11:42:42 AM
Trigger Warning has not gone backwards since adding lasix. Pressed a good pace vs. what were two good ones IMO in the MTB derby w/o lasix. Came back against older on the Sunland undercard. Slowly improving last three. Pair puts him in the exacta/tri on short rest.

Dark Vader may be ready for new top after last two. Another who exited what may be a key Sunland Derby. Had trouble turning for home in that one as well, two tries since have been good. Probably won\'t get the morning line.

Using Funny Duck as a spoiler as well.

Trying to beat the Romans horse solely based on a spotty record at the venue. The way this year has gone, KZ wins by a mile.
#8
Must be the same guy who played Lucky Dan to win.
#9
Ask the Experts / Re: Justify vs Bodemeister
May 10, 2018, 07:24:28 AM
No handicapping involved, but trying to crash what will be one of the largest negative show pools in history makes it a little interesting if only six go to the gate, at least for a few furlongs anyway.
#10
Ask the Experts / Re: Looking Back A Year
May 07, 2018, 09:00:56 AM
Tapwrit and Patch have been working steady at PBD for their 2018 debuts. Patch to appear in a NW1.
#11
Ask the Experts / Re: How did you do thread
May 07, 2018, 04:48:29 AM
Needed Bravazzo, FDB, or Instilled Regard to complete the triple. Felt it wasn\'t going to be my day when I actually saw two futures wager horses make the starting gate, both (Noble Indy and Instilled Regard) at longer prices than my futures wager. Didn\'t have much confidence the exacta price price would stay in that range, otherwise would have had a few savers there. Congrats to all who cashed and great calls on the seminar A horses.

Not conceding the Preakness to the winner at 1-9 just yet. Orb, Super Saver, and MTB are enough history off sloppy track wins to take some flyers for me. Since 2000, only Smarty moved forward in Baltimore off the slop, but that wasn\'t off a new top in the KD. Could see Bravazzo with a move forward, it\'s still early.

Six straight favorites, hopefully that changes next year, as well as the track conditions.
#12
Ask the Experts / Re: Mendelssohn
May 01, 2018, 05:15:02 AM
I did neglect to mention the surface change. It was more a point that other than bringing the rider along this time, O\'Brien is following the same blueprint.

As JB pointed out immediately after the race, and in the link as well, what was Moore doing the last hundred yards or so? While visually impressive, he was slowing significantly vs. the World Cup if you compare the two as they seem to have in the article and elsewhere. At the projected odds, I\'ll probably play against him getting the distance 2nd time dirt, but reserving final decision pending seminar.

Eyes on Rayya. The article has her and Reride going backwards as it seems the backpedaling Beyer does. TG has them pairing. Does her performance in the Oaks foretell anything other than maybe  moving the line slightly?
#13
Ask the Experts / Re: Mendelssohn
April 30, 2018, 06:45:40 AM
O\'Brien did bring Master of Hounds in 2011. Ran him in the Juvenile Turf at CD in 2010. Finished 2nd to a southern hemisphere 3yo filly in the UAE derby. Was lasix on for the juvy turf and then for the derby. Shipped in Tues or Wed before race. Garrett Gomez was rider, think he had one or two dirt mounts on the undercard. Horse ran 5th, best finish for a UAE derby starter and IMO would have hit the board had he not ducked into the Shackleford dead rail for the stretch run. Oh well. FWIW.
#14
Ask the Experts / Re: Jerardi article in DRF
April 20, 2018, 03:51:39 PM
Mend   TS   WC   MUB   Rayya   Reride   Seahenge
1/4   25.09   25.75   25.88   26.12   25.33   25.57   26.75
1/2   23.37   24.68   24.59   24.53   23.37   23.49   22.97
3/4   23.41   23.46   23.49   23.49   23.66   23.66   23.78
1m   24.44   23.32   23.43   23.43   25.68   26.35   26.17
Fin   18.875   24.175   24.997   24.881   20.57   19.893   20.075
   115.185   121.385   122.387   122.451   118.61   118.963   119.745

Definitely out of my element here, but I\'d find it difficult to project when both races are going in opposite directions at the end.
#15
Ask the Experts / Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18
April 19, 2018, 09:54:38 AM
I have no idea about anyone else, but I\'m merely speculating based on Beyer. I\'m eagerly awaiting the pre entries for conformation.