Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - Tavasco

#2
So the #11 can win hopefully
#3
Ask the Experts / Re: Churchill Race 10 -- oct 30 2025
October 30, 2025, 05:34:16 PM
The issue may be human incompetence (or worse). Just today, the NFL suspended all seven (7) referees from Sunday\'s Tampa vs New Orleans football game. After watching the race replay, I think the #1 has to be disqualified. The jockey Declan Cannon should be punished for careless riding. But hey, I\'m old and from a time when the rule of law meant something.
#4
Ask the Experts / Re: He Is Scratched
October 29, 2025, 10:25:51 AM
Baeza looked great in his last. I\'ll remind those who consider such things that Forever Young\'s average winnings of $1.3M/Start over 12 Starts. In his three 2025 races, his average winnings are $3.8M per race. Less than the BC Classic winner\'s share but eye-popping none-the-less.
#5
Ask the Experts / Race #5 AQU Sunday 10/26
October 26, 2025, 12:35:43 PM
First, I want to compliment Mr. Flavien Prat\'s ride to win by a nostril. Second, considering the price, kudos to Jose Lezcano and trainer Mark Hennig for running 2nd.

Prat really does love the rail, and that complicates some of his turf races.
#6
Ask the Experts / Re: Kee R2
October 18, 2025, 09:39:01 AM
I agree dumping bets into the pools late is irritating. It\'s even conceivable that some CAW\'s can compute and forecast the effect of their bets on payoffs. Is one CAW colluding with other CAW illegal?

Just wondering what \"retail players\" consider a CAW\'s advantage other that rebates?
#7
Ask the Experts / Re: Keeneland, R10
October 11, 2025, 11:01:51 AM
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Race 10.  
>
> #1 Did It Dialed interests me today.  

> I wish I could see those last two works to make
> this a more confident play but this horse will
> definitely be on any horizontals I play.  No one
> picked the horse in the top 3 in DRF and I don\'t
> see the CAW\'s gravitating to this one more than
> others.  Horse should be a solid price.  
>
> Good Luck to All today.

At first glance this looks to be an interesting puzzle. Several entrants with apparent upside and that\'s not including those entered by the unpredictable David Jacobson. Regarding the workouts it is frustrating not to be able to find a video. So rather than extend my frustration I\'ve concluded trainer Lynch won\'t accept a start like the last one, which indirectly signals his positive intent today. Thanks for bringing our focus to an actual race and good luck right back at you!
---------------

Oh bye the way W. Walden has a SoCal invader for a sheets outfit in the 9th @ Bel. After what Hess did a day or two ago I\'m suspicious of this one
#8
Socalman3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
Your points about churn are valid imho but there is not an intelligence pre-requisite  for lawmakers so we end up with stupid laws and regulations.

 (b) accept the change and then
> adapt to the new world (for me, this means only
> playing in a format that leaves no record, or only
> playing tournaments

I want to add technically it is the taxpayers responsibility to report winnings from gambling. Whether it came from a tournament or live at the track.

Yet regarding ADW\'s only U.S. based ADW\'s are required to provide W-2\'s. Offshore ADW\'s have no such requirement and do not. I repeat - do not report winnings which are available in crypto and can be anonymous as well as accessed via VPN.

Wondering how many of us can expect EOY W-2\'for our 2025 action?
#9
The father (Elliot) has/had an impeccably reputation.
#10
My view and opinion is that the race plays to Good Cheer\'s pressing style. My concern is that she doesn\'t regress after her last effort. The abundance of front runners could just leave a pocket for Good Cheer to drop into. It\'s always possible Indy Bay could love the stretch out and be uncatchable.

I\'ll play those two ebx fwiw.
#11
Ask the Experts / Miguel Clement
August 31, 2025, 11:32:54 AM
OK, Winning the 6th race at SAR Sunday puts this rising star in a class by himself?
#12
Ask the Experts / Race #1
August 28, 2025, 11:07:13 AM
Here it is Thursday afternoon heading into Labor Day Weekend. The kickoff of the NFL season and I;m feeling good and confident in an afternoon of racing. Kentucky Down oh Boy.

I start with Colonial I track I play only occasionally. I like the #8. It\'s obvious to me this one has the early foot in a 5.5 turf sprint. Sure enough the #8 looks like a quarter horse vs Arabians. The lead is approaching 10 lengths as the leader begins to exit the turn.  The odds on favorite begins to reel in the Speedball. What I hadn\'t foreseen was the Speedball faded like so far he didn\'t even make it into the Super. Not really a rare happening but geez. Colonial I thought with a question mark and a short field of Ho Hum Maidens to boot.

Then race #2 showcased the questionable Virginia Jockey Colony. This time in a full length Turf route with plenty of horses. But, turn one looked like rush hour on Friday afternoon. I watch and play tracks from Asia, Africa, Australia and they offer full fields and patient mannerly riding. This Colonial race was demolition derby. If it had been the UFC some one would have been disqualified. The #3 looked more like a Rodeo Bronc the jockey CONCEPCION AXEL was all over the place hard to tell if it was the rider or the horse?

OK I better try a different track somewhere sophisticated like Saratoga. Only to catch #6 make a move to get off the rail that bumped and bounced the the favorite a couple of paths. Given the 6 is a big horse but wow. I mused who was the rider so bold to make a move like that, only to find that it was a gal Katie Davis on a 1st time starter.  

My last hope is Kentucky Downs, there I expect the unusual but its a big track and hopefully they have enough room to avoid bumper car trips.

I just had to vent! Sorry. Make America Great Again Behavior seems to be more and more pervasive and gets us back to when we were known as the Ugly Americans. I like the 7 in the 3rd @ KD probably over or with the #5 in an exactas.
#13
another perspective, sometimes  we have to just take what is given. A simple trifecta and nice effort by Margie.

I\'m thinking I prefer La Cara as a miler!
#14
Ask the Experts / How Good Is Desert Gate
August 09, 2025, 03:52:21 PM
Is Baffert trainee and Best Pal Stakes winner Desert Gate that good or is the field and West Coast 2 year old crop mediocre so far.


And how could Willow Case go off @27/1 in the Sharp Susan (8th race @ GP slop)?
#15
Ask the Experts / Whitney 2025
August 02, 2025, 03:04:33 PM
Congrats trainers Brown for entering and sending Contrary Thinking to set up Sierra Leone, Cox/Godolphin for always showing up and Asmussen for doing a yeoman\'s job of getting Disarm back to top condition and making a good trifecta.