Proud Valay - 3/1 lightly raced, horse fired first out, albeit with a different trainer. I did check the PPs here for a Workout, and there are none. Has speed.
Prizes Included - 3/1 - probable value.  Only has one workout in Florida, but that was 2/41 on the day, so maybe they shipped late and the horse will fire.  More likely is a pop next race, since the trainer is 38% second out.  Also, has a closing style, but did press for a win, you guessed it, last time he was second off a layoff.  He\'s my play at the value line, though.
Concorde\'s Dancer - 4/1 - Better syn than dirt sire.  I\'d need the value line to play this one, but he\'s the third contender.

Bottom line:  Play the one that is the best overlay on value line, then box all three in the exta.

Again, TG analysis lands on the same horse, but at 3/2 instead of 5/2.  
Am I reaching too much for value?

Heartening to just read that the TG analysis also keys on Overrated, but at 10/1, not 3/1.  Guessing the ML is a bit higher than I anticipated?

Handicapped for turf, used nothing but sheets and don\'t know ML.
In preference order.

Starry Eyed kate - 5/2 - not cranked for first off LO, but is the most likely winner, but the race will have value when she runs second..  
Secret Story - 7/2 - Love the race spacing, and is the potential value.  Louis, Louis, Louis, whither Risen Star?
Overrated - 3/1 - other potential value off the buried return race.
Clever 13 - 4/1 - other potential favorite.  Even the bounce to an 8 from the last race top of 6.5 may be good enough to win this, but Secret Story and Overrated do have the potential to progress at a price while she regresses as an underlay.
Jones Zing - 6/1 - that 7.5 last out is a 3 point move.  How I view it, bounce or progression, depends on the price, but I\'m leaning towards that being a payoff race and the relatively short rest is going to have her regressing.
Shanfeild - 9/1 - Probably too slow, but is a potential price horse underneath.
Vee - High weight; can\'t play \'em all.  This will be the horse that causes me to miss the tri.
Bernice Special - Should be a price because of the last race bolt.  Read Vee\'s blurb.

Bottom Line:  I\'m looking to play  Overrated at value first, then Secret Story, at value line to win.  They\'d be my keys in the horizontals.
Haven\'t looked at pace, but even if they go 51 and change to the half, it\'s going to NOT be the horse on the lead at the top of the lane, especially if they\'re running anywhere close to the rail.  Lean toward the stronger closer.

All I looked at to handicap is the sheets.  No form, don\'t even know what the ML is.
In order that I \"like,\" with the comments I wrote on the sheets while flying back home today.  Odds listed are my fair odds, and the total\'s not 100% because I\'m lazy and I expect scratches and reevaluation anyway.

Lunar Victory - 5/2 Even a bounce to 8.75 is good enough to win.
Hangover Kid - 5/2 He ran 2 7s.  Thing he\'s going to be a fave, so, as usual, I\'m going to try to beat him.  
Idle American - 3/1 probable value in the race.  Quiet American sire is much better dirt than turf, the debut 9.25 is buried, and Pat Kelly has Alan Garcia up.  What happened to Pat Kelly?  Didn\'t he use to be a top trainer, especially in NJ?
Uncle Smokey - X - Avarez is 0/42 with ALW runners.  Let him beat me.
Atilan - 9/2 - also probable value because of switch to low % trainer.  Gets weight, shows a healthy overall line. This horse needs to do it (move forward) this out or next.
Dream Drop Kid - 6/1 could run a 6 based on 2 to 3 yr. old sire dev. stats.  But where is CC for the Dominator G man?  Has the juice disappeared?
Living Right - 10/1 lots of chances, hasn\'t broken through the 9 level.  I\'m kinda feeling like I did with Atilan, it\'s this race or never.
Crown\'s Dominion - Had time since top, but is really too slow.
A Rod - 13/1 - Grand Slam is actually a better Dirt sire, and the 8.5 last on turf may indicate he\'s back, moving toward the 4, but that 4 looks like a knock out, and all the races, short rest, gaps, yuck.  Honey Badger is nasty, and so is this line.
Smooth Transisiton - Best is usually second out.  If the horse is getting action on the tote, and I wish I could articulate what that means, (probably 6/1 or less, given the hot trainer) then I\'m REALLY going to skip this race.
Crescent Moon - intermediate pattern off the layoff doesn\'t indicate a move back to the 5 top.  Strikes me as a knock out number until there\'s a better indication of recovery.  But that 5 potential is another reason to skip the race.
Creas Law and papa\'s nice cat off the AEs have #\'s to win it.

Bottom line:  Skip the race unless you\'re getting value on Idle American or Atilan.  Haven\'t looked at the pace scenario at all, but DO NOT play a closer, unless there\'s an indication that the inner tube has really changed since the break, and lean toward the value horse that has stalking speed.

How\'s that for 20 minutes of work that essentially says skip the race?

The strength of the 0 2 X pattern is just as you point out, southern, is that it puts you on a horse that is potentially value at the odds because the recent form is \"poor.\"  This, I believe, is the only way you might make money into a 20% blended take out.  I\'m going to post some analysis for tomorrow, then tell you how I bet it once I know the horses true prices close to post, and we can evaluate.

Jerry
 I think I remember back when you were writing the programs to come up with the pattern statistics (off-off-pr, etc.) that you also might have run one on the 02X.  Before I waste my mad search skyllz on trying to find it on the archives, can you point me in the right direction if it exists?

Chaos. Use Batuta, Malibu Red, and Daddy\'s Kiss in the Pick 5.