Virtually all dirt winners had something in common:  They had won or run some of their best races at CD.   Liking CD is an advantage, irrespective of bias or post.

Follow that profile for the Oaks and Birdatthewire looks really tough.   Watch the 1,2,10 at big prices.

My own unscientific method of trying to figure who\'s cheating is to look at the winning & ITM %, 1st off the claim from the alleged cheater.


Last 6 months - first after claimed from:

Maker   -  17% W & 57%ITM.  
Servis  -  23% W & 50%ITM
Ness    -  22% W & 49%ITM
Jacobson-  21% W & 47%ITM
N Caniani- 29% W & 43%ITM

No need to be insulting JB.   Let me explain my reason for tossing he entire FLD field:

I can forgive the FL Derby\'s slow early pace and its effect on the slow final time but if I\'m forgiving the slow final time,  I would expect a pretty snappy final 3/8s.  Forget about Dreaming of Julia\'s freak performance,  want to see my Derby pick run a faster final 3/8s that Ciao Bella.

I\'m tossing the entire field.

The FLA derby was too bad to forgive.    Orb & IMLD are comfortable tosses for me.

With the new time you may have Paynter running a better figure than IHA which would seem crazy based on the history of the horses beaten by Paynter. That is assuming no difference in the variant.   Am I off on that?

Very impressive.  This colt was  beaten 3/12 Lengths in the SAD in only his second start.   Much to like.  Solid second choice in the Belmont for me.

Doesn\'t Baffert need a stable jock?

Thank you Jay Hovdey.


\"Lay Congaree's splits over Bodemeister's and see what you get. The only difference is that Bodemeister busted loose on a pace no one was crazy enough to follow – other than the doomed Trinniberg – while Congaree was in close range of the pace, racing fifth early but hardly being rated. Bodemeister's half was 45.39 seconds. Congaree was three lengths and a neck off a 44.86. Bodemeister was in front at the mile mark in 1:35.19. So was Congaree, in 1:35.00. At the finish Bodemeister was 1 1/2 lengths shy of I'll Have Another's 2:01.83, while Congaree finished third, 4 3/4 lengths behind the 1:59.97 of Monarchos, while the others on the pace crumbled\"



Jay Hovedy - drf

In his recent column Beyer writes:

\"In the Derby's 137 previous runnings, a total of 10 horses had sped the first half mile in 45.4 seconds or less. There were some legitimate contenders among them, but all 10 of them virtually collapsed after this exertion. All finished in 10th place or worse. Yet Bodemeister kept on going.\"

The closest comparison I could find to challenge Beyers point is Congaree\'s run in 2001. Although he wasn\'t on the lead I don\'t think it matters much in comparing the two efforts.  I compared the splits and races from both days and concluded that the track in 2001 may have been slightly slower and played less to speed than the one in 2012.  Here are the adjusted splits:

2001 Congaree:    22.3  45.3   1.09.4   1.35.3   2.00.4
2012 Bodemeister: 22.1  45.2   1.09.3   1.35.1   2.02.0


Comments?

If you believe in  karma, you could point to his firing of Dublin\'s jock(Theriot)
after a G1 victory in the 2009 Hopeful.  Needing a NY rider was the only reason Lukas offered.   The drought started there.

I tossed the entire Rebel field.  All those impressive closes were optical illusions.     Left with Stat,  Cozzetti, Isn\'t He Clever & Bodemeister.  Likely Isn\'t He Clever on the win end but I\'ll find a way to use the others on top and underneath in exactas.

Good luck folks. We\'re about to learn a thing or two.

For what it\'s worth he is 0-110 in graded stakes dating back to 2009.

Loved Prospective\'s Tampa Bay Derby.   Blinkers have made him a different horse.  Lots of early types in the BG, great post and a pedigree that is begging for more ground.   Hero of Order\'s last was no fluke but he may get a wide trip.  I\'ll still use him underneath Prospective along with Hansen and Dullahan

Hands down the best G1 race we\'ve had since BC.

See 6 horses that can win this race.  Fat Out, Friend or Foe, Morning Line, Rodman, Rail Trip & Tizway.  

Rail Trip:  Back to 2 turn racing which I think he prefers.  His work tab gives me a lot of confidence that Dutrow is bringing a very fit horse to this race.   8 published works in 8 months leading up to the Easy Goer (8 Month layoff).   He has 8 published works leading up to this race (2 months).   His 6 furlong breezes are noticeably faster.  At his best, he\'s the most talented horse here.    A big win expected..

Rodman has a huge shot.   Third back after hitting board in two of the best dirt races of the year and is 2-2 at Saratoga.  Ready to run back to Met Mile form.

Morning Line will get a comfortable lead.  The ones capable of forcing the pace will sit back and hope he comes back.    He may not.   Closers will be compromised.    Holds on for third.

Tizway, Friend or Foe & Flat Out are all capable.   If Flat Out repeats we might have a handicap star.    Betting against that, fingers crossed.  Tizway prefers Belmont and a flat mile.   Friend or Foe scares me so I\'ll use him defensively over my top two.  Think he\'ll be really good by BC.